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@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
Polls and betting agencies are definitely saying Biden...but then this keeps happening
and Trump's doing 5 of these a day...
Not quite sure how this is remotely comparable to Biden. How do you know that he wouldn't also have large rallies if he wasn't being sensible around Covid?
I would guess that Trump would still have larger rally numbers anyway simply because those that like his 'style' are those that will attend these things.
There were some good size rallies being held in Nuremburg once upon a time as well. Hope things don't turn out similar. I thought the western world had learned a few lessons about populism.
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@Crucial said in US Politics:
There were some good size rallies being held in Nuremburg once upon a time as well. Hope things don't turn out similar. I thought the western world had learned a few lessons about populism.
Jesus mate, get a grip
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Frank if all they're doing is reporting the polling results...then no, theyre not wrong, the polls are what they are
I think 538 are doing more than just reporting polls.
They are weighting them based on past accuracy and recency and doing other fancy things with them.If the result is so uncertain (as many on here feel), the polls should reflect that.
Otherwise they are practically useless. -
@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
There were some good size rallies being held in Nuremburg once upon a time as well. Hope things don't turn out similar. I thought the western world had learned a few lessons about populism.
Jesus mate, get a grip
Don't hide behind Godwins.
It is actually quite a relevant point that populist politics on scales like this don't usually end well (win or lose) -
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@Frank said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Frank if all they're doing is reporting the polling results...then no, theyre not wrong, the polls are what they are
I think 538 are doing more than just reporting polls.
They are weighting them based on past accuracy and recency and doing other fancy things with them.If the result is so uncertain (as many on here feel), the polls should reflect that.
Otherwise they are practically useless.If you want polls to predict the future I think this statement is correct. Best not to
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@barbarian said in US Politics:
@Crucial I thought the Nuremburg reference was a little much.
People weren't making those comparisons when Obama drew similar crowds.
The Nuremburg reference was to the rallies of the early 30s which were regular and often and used as a tool. They are the most obvious example.
Obama's crowds were more akin to a rock concert. His inauguration used to draw big names to perform. I can't recall him having large 'propoganda' like rallies of 'uniform' wearing chanters.
Not saying Trumps ones are the same as others just that they draw comparison.
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@Kiwiwomble
Sure. Nothing is certain.
But saying 89% chance of a Biden win is giving him a very high probability of winning. -
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
There were some good size rallies being held in Nuremburg once upon a time as well. Hope things don't turn out similar. I thought the western world had learned a few lessons about populism.
Are you trolling?
No. Serious.
Don't take it as a literal comparison. More a reflection on history. -
@Kiwiwomble
Sure and if Biden wins - order to the polling industry will be restored.
But if Trump wins, you gotta question their methodology and practical usefulness. -
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Frank you're not already?
I don't know yet.
I'll take the example of how many got Hillary wrong and see if they have learned anything from their mistakes in 2016.
If they are wrong again, yes I'd have to think they are kind of useless when it comes to Trump at least.(obviously,being a Trump supporter, I hope they are wrong )
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@Frank said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Frank you're not already?
I don't know yet.
I'll take the example of how many got Hillary wrong and see if they have learned anything from their mistakes in 2016.
If they are wrong again, yes I'd have to think they are kind of useless when it comes to Trump at least.(obviously,being a Trump supporter, I hope they are wrong )
You still aren't understanding the purpose or message of the polls and seem to be confusing polls with the interpretation and messages of the press that result from them.
If you had polled rugby fans before the test the other day a % would have said that they thought the Wobblies would win. The ABs won 100% of the game. Does that mean that the poll was wrong?
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@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
You still aren't understanding the purpose or message of the polls
What is their purpose or message?
Define it.
So I am clear.The purpose is to get an indication of possible results based on a sample.
The message is 'this is what our sample shows'
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