Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
did they? or did the media just ignore those ones, and focus on the "if we do nothing" models, leaving out the assumptions
Mate, I've no idea. I was talking to a very successful property developer today who wa absolutely astonished at what had happened in the property market. He said he (and no one he knew) saw it coming. Blokes' very canny, worth a fortune, and had a good feel for the property market.
Who knows any more, 2020 can FRO
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
The other thing is that many of the forecast economic impacts either didn't happen or were much less than expected.
This, 100x. Remember 'house prices will fall'. Even economic and unemployment forecasts were out by heaps (and arguably could have been better - but I won't go there). It's astonishing, but that's peak advice these days I guess
Don't trust forecasts is the answer
forecasts may well have been bang on if the Government didn't shell out money hand over fist
the '80,000 dead' model would be accurate too, if we didn't change our behaviour on seeing people getting sick and dying.
So -- no forecasters contemplated teh government or RBNZ pumping cheap money into the economy or stimulating?
did they? or did the media just ignore those ones, and focus on the "if we do nothing" models, leaving out the assumptions
Most of the economic forecasts from the usual suspects (Infometrics, BERL, and co) mostly seemed to end up with unemployment in the range of 12% to 20%. So far everyone seems to be so relieved that the worst of the forecasts haven't come to pass - that we haven't actually checked why some of the forecasts were so far out (at least in a few conversations I've had about them!)
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@Donsteppa Just too soon? Too much optimism about vaccines? (although that is looking good).
We are only a year into this thing (give or take), the economic lag isn't going to be like a stock market crash or a banking financial crisis it could be more of a drip by drip decline. Hopefully that is wrong and the forecasts are wrong too, and likely to be if they can fix the bloody virus.
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Donsteppa Just too soon? Too much optimism about vaccines? (although that is looking good).
We are only a year into this thing (give or take), the economic lag isn't going to be like a stock market crash or a banking financial crisis it could be more of a drip by drip decline. Hopefully that is wrong and the forecasts are wrong too, and likely to be if they can fix the bloody virus.
From memory most were projecting the biggest rise in unemployment early, then the arguments tended to be over whether it'd be a V shaped quick bounce back, a slower U shaped recovery, or worse an L shaped effect over several years.
That said, 2021 is still expected to be a bumpy ride. Even if we remain Covid free and have freedom of movement/full events domestically, our export partners are having their moments too...
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
From memory most were projecting the biggest rise in unemployment early,
Hmm, I wasn't. The subsidy helped but was never going to be sustainable. The bleed of business funds / cashflow was going to take a while, and likewise layoffs. Having said that I am employing 2 new part time staff so there is still a money go around.
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
our export partners are having their moments too...
Yeah they are. I'm more concerned about our import supply chain now. We don't make a lot of things here and people don't realise when we say no, you can't have it, it is because a lot of businesses overseas are shut down. We simply can't get the product. The stock is gone, which is what I meant by the economic lag. If we can't supply, people can't buy, and I will be laying off staff instead of hiring them.
So the doom unemployment numbers may still be correct. Let's hope not.
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
From memory most were projecting the biggest rise in unemployment early,
Hmm, I wasn't. The subsidy helped but was never going to be sustainable. The bleed of business funds / cashflow was going to take a while, and likewise layoffs. Having said that I am employing 2 new part time staff so there is still a money go around.
A lot of the initial projections were made in the early days of Level 4, with broadly;
- No idea how long we'd be in Level 4 for
- Little idea what Levels 3 & 2 might look like
- I think an assumption that some businesses would lay off staff straight away. There was some evidence of that in tourism, hospitality, and in places heavily reliant on the international market (Queenstown). it just didn't continue on the scale expected.
- I think the domestic spending offset from 'no international holidays' wasn bigger than expected too. Plus the effect of people spending between five to seven weeks stuck at home and realising all the things they didn't like about their current house/gadgets they wanted etc....
I think it will still rise, but I think there'd have to be a severe shock again for unemployment to hit 12% plus. Though the way this year has gone, who knows what will be tomorrow!
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Pakistan men’s cricket team members test positive for COVID-19
Media release 26 November 2020 Six members of the Pakistan men’s cricket team have tested positive for COVID-19 at their managed isolation facility at the Chateau on the Park in Christchurch. The Ministry is confirming these positive test results outside of our usual cycle of announcing cases because of the high public interest in visiting sports teams. All members of the team returned a negative COVID-19 test and passed a symptom check before departing Lahore. Fifty-three members of the squad arrived in Christchurch on 24 November and were tested on day 1. These cases are the results of those tests. All cases are being moved to quarantine rooms within the facility. Members of the team will be tested a minimum of four times while in managed isolation. As a result of these positive tests, members of the team will not be able to leave the facility to train. Any training is conditional on a public health assessment, so at this time, no training will be able to take place. The Medical Officer of Health at Canterbury District Health Board has sent a letter to the squad’s management to be communicated to the whole team, reinforcing that all team members are required to stay in their rooms until advised otherwise. In addition, since their arrival, several team members have been seen on CCTV at the facility breaching managed isolation rules, despite clear, consistent and detailed communication of expected behaviours while in the facility. The team as a whole has been issued with a final warning. It’s important to note that all incidents of breaches occurred within the facility and there is no risk to the public. Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said any breaches of managed isolation rules were taken very seriously. “It is a privilege to come to New Zealand to play sport, but in return teams must stick to the rules that are designed to keep COVID-19 out of our communities and keep our staff safe.” Air Commodore Darryn Webb, head of Managed Isolation and Quarantine, said there are robust processes in place in managed isolation facilities to respond to these events. “Our focus is on keeping the rest of the squad and our staff safe. For that reason, all other team members must remain in their rooms while investigations continue. This is in line with standard operating procedures at managed isolation facilities.”
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@Stargazer fuckers, allowed here to play sport and breach the iso rules.
Aussie rugby team managed to behave, yet Windies and now Pakistan cricketers breach rules.
Fuckers
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stargazer fuckers, allowed here to play sport and breach the iso rules.
Aussie rugby team managed to behave, yet Windies and now Pakistan cricketers breach rules.
Fuckers
Absolutely. Fuck the final warning, the six should be getting the 3rd degree, telling them we are sending them home as soon as their isolation is done unless they can come up with a really good excuse. A fair trial followed by a good hangin’ that’s what’s needed.
fluffybunnies
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@taniwharugby @JC can you imagine your employer getting special dispensation for you to travel to do your job overseas, and you just ignore rules and breach quarantine? FFS people, I'm seriously pissed about this.
Pakistan series looks marginal now, and it shoudl be a forfeit not abandoned.
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The Windies breach was bad enough, and they tested negative a few times. But these Pakistani players can get fucking deported. Nothing is worth a spike in community transmission and another lockdown, least of all some arrogant stupid wankpuffins from overseas.
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However Shoaib Akhtar doesn’t agree with me.
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@JC What a fucking wankstain. Shoaib, you really think that we should let your Covid infected players just wander around, shut down our economy and ruin what we have already suffered for? Obey the rules and this wouldn't have happened.
Fuck off and take your team with you.
"“If I was in their place, I would have given a statement saying that if New Zealand Cricket aren't happy, we won't play them and will bring our team back and we won't play against you for five years.”
There will be some upset bookies.
”You are talking about Pakistan - the greatest country on the planet - so behave yourself and stop giving such statement."
HAhahahahahaahahahahahhaha. I've been to the greatest country on the planet too many times, the only plus when I did, was to lose weight for a few days.
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Fuck up Shoaib you cocksmoker
I would have thought a prerequisite for a great country was their country's national team being able to play, you know, in their home country.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Fuck up Shoaib you cocksmoker
I would have thought a prerequisite for a great country was their country's national team being able to play, you know, in their home country.
Exactly. They tried to blow up our team when we were there, now they are trying to infect our country with the dreaded lurgy. fluffybunnies.
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@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Of course getting sent home is a bit a sore point for Shaoib. And he has form for not thinking rules apply to him.
Drugs, ball tampering, sledging / foul language, criticing the greatest country on the planet's cricket board. He certainly has some history as a complete knob.