Coronavirus - UK
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow There was another one recently. Some guys opened a "pub" in some warehouse and called it The Covid Arms
End of this clip they had Covid Arms on the wall
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@MiketheSnow Ah! Might be the same one but I'm sure I heard of two instances.
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Very sensible article from Auntie: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55985916
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Steps seem reasonably pragmatic to me honestly ....
Having said that, I only really care about getting the kids back to school and it seems like 8th March is more or less locked in. Would be nice to bugger off overseas but mentally I accepted the inability of that months ago ....
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
Steps seem reasonably pragmatic to me honestly ....
Having said that, I only really care about getting the kids back to school and it seems like 8th March is more or less locked in. Would be nice to bugger off overseas but mentally I accepted the inability of that months ago ....
It's quite reasonable, but my gut tells me that Covid hospital bed occupancy and deaths will fall significantly faster than their conservative estimates. By Easter I think there'll be very strong pressure to speed things up by three or four weeks.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman my gut says the opposite.
British public has little respect for govt directives snd I think mixing mingling will rise exponentially starting right now.
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I’m thinking and hoping a bit of both. I agree that the level of compliance is likely to fall but hope that A) that has been factored in to the thinking and that the dramatic improvement in the figures is down primarily to the vaccines and this provides us with a way out that is not lockdown dependent.
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I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
That would be nothing other than an unmitigated disaster after the year we've had and the rapid development and supply of vaccines. All for a virus that hardly affects the majority of the population.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
That would be nothing other than an unmitigated disaster after the year we've had and the rapid development and supply of vaccines. All for a virus that hardly affects the majority of the population.
Agreed
But that’s what’s being mooted for Wales.
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
Well there’ll be no opposition from Starmer, so that’s one less hurdle
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
Well there’ll be no opposition from Starmer, so that’s one less hurdle
I saw a great quote on Andrew Neil's page about Starmer's strategy:
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
Hope it blows over without too much fuss mate
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
I saw a great quote on Andrew Neil's page about Starmer's strategy:
Starmer has a strategy?
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SAGE modelling which seems to have been behind the super timid unlocking roadmap: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963400/S1116_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_on_scenario_for_easing_restrictions.pdf
Spent some time looking at this.
As they note, outputs are 'critically dependent on very uncertain modelled assumptions'.
Key assumptions are denoted Central (conservative) and Pessimistic (absurd). Studies posted elsewhere here by @Victor-Meldrew etc. indicate actual vaccination protection is coming in at better thn the 'Central' assumptions.
Four scenarios. One, in essence unlock now, predictably leads to big resurgence.
Many outputs indicate substantial deaths.
Trouble is that no account taken of strong evidence that vaccination is 99% effective in preventing deaths!
And actual vaccination take up is much higher among Over 70s than assumed.
Also can't seem to find age banded mortality assumptions, which suggests there are none.
SPA-M panel up for the 2021 Neil Ferguson Award!