Coronavirus - New Zealand
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it just doesnt feel like we are learning (Govt and general populace) and often feels like we get a knee jerk reaction to something, then a slow-motion one to others.
With these people testing negative, assume when they have tested negative they have been negative and it has only been possible continuous exposure to the virus that they eventually catch it, rather than the more worrying option of people having it and testing negative.
Have to think with the movements of this latest case, our luck has run out and there will be further cases this week, guess the thing to stop L4 is that the cases all need to be linked, although if we get several that arent all same household ones in one day it will become tricky to stay at L3
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so a new case to (Case O) but is a household contact to cases I, J, K & L
Case O was transferred to the Auckland quarantine facility on February 23 as a precautionary measure. The person became symptomatic yesterday and returned a positive Covid-19 test this afternoon. This means that Case O has been in quarantine for their infectious period.
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Perhaps I am too cynical, but I cant see much changing in NZ until full vaccination is achieved.
Westerners are just not made for success in stamping out the virus.
Young people in particular are too freedom loving and unwilling to make small sacrifices like mandatory mask wearing. A she'll be right attitude.
A soft-ass govt with general establishment and scientific support for continuous lockdowns while NZ goes deeper into debt propping up businesses.I harp on about this, but here in Taiwan, they are actually afraid of the virus.
Mandatory mask wearing in most places.
2nd most densely populated country in the world, but have not had a single lockdown.Taiwan has had cases come into the general population a couple of times (one being a Kiwi pilot who bullshitted) and those cases have had massive contact with the public, but the authorities just did their cellphone contact tracing + the benefits of mask wearing and it was fine. No lockdowns.
Early and strict border controls, a ban on foreign visitors and mandatory quarantine for all Taiwanese returning home. NZ is doing all of this (aren't they??), but something is going wrong somewhere.
The cost of this in terms of debt raising is coming for the future.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's going to be a long and tortuous path to stability if the goal remains elimination until vaccination.
Do you really think the vaccine will make any difference? It will be say oh there's a new variant (that will go on forever) that needs yet another vaccine. That isn't ready yet.
My view is it won't stop until people collectively stop being so very compliant (and even want to punish people or dob people in who aren't good children). And accept that trying to stop a virus is like trying to stop the tide coming in. And think that maybe the way we did things in the past wasn't so bad.
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I propose the measure of Covid response effectiveness include some objective economic numbers - how much debt is being raised as % of GDP to fund lockdowns, how many jobs have been lost etc.
That would be transparency.
Being kind and giving looks of pained empathy without hard punitive measures for those breaking the rules just doesn't cut it.
Example - a guy here in Taiwan broke the quarantine rules after being warned for breaking it once- fine 50,000 NZD. -
@winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's going to be a long and tortuous path to stability if the goal remains elimination until vaccination.
Do you really think the vaccine will make any difference? It will be say oh there's a new variant (that will go on forever) that needs yet another vaccine. That isn't ready yet.
My view is it won't stop until people collectively stop being so very compliant (and even want to punish people or dob people in who aren't good children). And accept that trying to stop a virus is like trying to stop the tide coming in. And think that maybe the way we did things in the past wasn't so bad.
Shit man, I don't know. I've been saying for a long time that I'd like to hear some thoughts on the state of play needed for borders to open up and regular lockdowns to stop. Like you, I'm not that confident in it happening, we all seem to be really supportive of these repeat lockdowns (see election results over the last 12 months around the world)
I'm certainly of the view that elimination policy is a fallacy, and we need to move on from that.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's going to be a long and tortuous path to stability if the goal remains elimination until vaccination.
Do you really think the vaccine will make any difference? It will be say oh there's a new variant (that will go on forever) that needs yet another vaccine. That isn't ready yet.
My view is it won't stop until people collectively stop being so very compliant (and even want to punish people or dob people in who aren't good children). And accept that trying to stop a virus is like trying to stop the tide coming in. And think that maybe the way we did things in the past wasn't so bad.
Shit man, I don't know. I've been saying for a long time that I'd like to hear some thoughts on the state of play needed for borders to open up and regular lockdowns to stop. Like you, I'm not that confident in it happening, we all seem to be really supportive of these repeat lockdowns (see election results over the last 12 months around the world)
I'm certainly of the view that elimination policy is a fallacy, and we need to move on from that.
Our initial strategy bought us valuable time and we wasted it
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@winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's going to be a long and tortuous path to stability if the goal remains elimination until vaccination.
Do you really think the vaccine will make any difference?
It has in Israel & the UK. NZ has an opportunity to keep it's death rate really low, protect its population and open up the economy safely.
And accept that trying to stop a virus is like trying to stop the tide coming in. And think that maybe the way we did things in the past wasn't so bad.
If you can't stop it, then you protect people against it with vaccines - as we do/did with 'flu & smallpox,
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@victor-meldrew said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's going to be a long and tortuous path to stability if the goal remains elimination until vaccination.
Do you really think the vaccine will make any difference?
It has in Israel & the UK. NZ has an opportunity to keep it's death rate really low, protect its population and open up the economy safely.
And accept that trying to stop a virus is like trying to stop the tide coming in. And think that maybe the way we did things in the past wasn't so bad.
If you can't stop it, then you protect people against it with vaccines - as we do/did with 'flu & smallpox,
Protection is the best option. Just need to reduce the virus to the point where it isn't as lethal anymore. Just like the flu
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@frank said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I propose the measure of Covid response effectiveness include some objective economic numbers - how much debt is being raised as % of GDP to fund lockdowns, how many jobs have been lost etc.
That would be transparency.
Being kind and giving looks of pained empathy without hard punitive measures for those breaking the rules just doesn't cut it.
Example - a guy here in Taiwan broke the quarantine rules after being warned for breaking it once- fine 50,000 NZD.This sounds Ok (not to me but to some) Except when the rules get even more restrictive and silly (and that's likely the future) ... And all the rules are in the law books to support this. So be careful supporting this. It might impact you or your family etc before long,
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@victor-meldrew said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
If you can't stop it, then you protect people against it with vaccines - as we do/did with 'flu & smallpox,
You have more confidence than me. Esp based on the flu vaccine that didn't seem to protect that well. I worked with people who were sick for months one year and they all (at least the ones that I asked) got the flu shot.
And I've read 2 reports (one on the silverfern) were someone had the covid vaccine and a short spell after got covid. So I hope you're right but ...
And has the Uk opened everything back up?
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@winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@victor-meldrew said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
If you can't stop it, then you protect people against it with vaccines - as we do/did with 'flu & smallpox,
You have more confidence than me. Esp based on the flu vaccine that didn't seem to protect that well. I worked with people who were sick for months one year and they all (at least the ones that I asked) got the flu shot.
Personally, I prefer to base my judgments on controlled, peer-reviewed, independently-assessed clinical studies rather than what the bloke who works with me says.
And I've read 2 reports (one on the silverfern) were someone had the covid vaccine and a short spell after got covid. So I hope you're right but ...
The vaccine protects against serious illness and hospitalisation & transmission - it doesn't stop you catching it. All vaccines work like that.
And has the Uk opened everything back up?
In stages as the vaccination program rolls out. Expected to be pretty much back to normal in 12-13 weeks time.
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So they have found where this person got it, someone in the earlier family didn't disclose a close contact and this close contact was the gym guy.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
So they have found where this person got it, someone in the earlier family didn't disclose a close contact and this close contact was the gym guy.
honestly, no system can handle people lying to it and ignoring protocols.
I was thinking about this, and how much culpability the 21 year old should carry. I think it's similar to drink driving - you know you are at risk after a few pints, but you get behind the wheel anyway. Most of the time you probably get home without a disaster ... but if you have a crash/Covid, it has a massive impact on innocent people. And some people (thankfully almost no one these days) will downplay the risk of driving while drunk/covid
Yet we wouldn't say 'he's only 21, he's stupid, he doesn't know what he's doing' about drink driving? Our system could be better, but goddamn that person has to cop a fair bit of responsibility for this.
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@jk said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Did anyone catch the bit on TV1 news last night where they said that approx 50 people turned up to a church service in Mt Roskill yesterday morning? Amazingly, all of them hadn't heard anything about the lockdown....
Mrs CF saw that. They are either incredibly insulated, or they are lying. In order to make sure there is no doubt the messages are getting through, perhaps the ministry should have paid employees that personally contact church and community leaders to inform them of changes in covid levels and what that means? At least it will mean that the responsibility will lie with someone in these communities to spread the word and no one can say they weren't told. Much cheaper than L3 or even L2
Meanwhile, another sign of the government's haphazard response, and evidence of almost 12 months of wasted time
A lack of a plan for vaccine distribution