All Blacks v France I
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@Duluth said in All Blacks v France I:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks v France I:
Can someone explain to me why, when we get penalty advantage, we try some low percentage bullshit the very first phase, more often than not immediately turning it over. We do this despite the very firm knowledge the ref will give you 15 free phases if you want them.
In recent years I believe the chances of scoring from long phases has gotten lower. You score in the first three or the defence gets too set. It may even be lower than the speculative kick.
The chances of scoring from a lineout drive or not long after are high. Might as well roll the dice and then just get to the lineout
That may be true, but I think it's a prime example of a statistic in isolation obscuring the reality of the overall picture. It's frequently multiple phases leading to an advantage, leading to multiple penalties, leading to a card, leading to try off a lineout from one of those infringements. And then frequently another score as a result of playing against 14. And the perception of the ref is that the defensive team is infringing repeatedly.
We're the team that doesn't press the advantage, and we're the team who supposedly gets carded more than our opposition. -
@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
@Mauss said in All Blacks v France I:
@brodean said in All Blacks v France I:
He has the tools but I don't think its in his nature. It's difficult to teach an old dog new tricks and I feel that at 31 that's his instinct.
The carry stats are wrong and where I think we struggled in the game. The highlighted should not be carrying that much considering their roles.
Top Carries
18 Ardie Savea
17 Damian Mckenzie
15 Will Jordan
14 Beauden Barrett
13 Fabian HollandI do think Savea could be a good openside option, especially within Robertson’s system, which seems to be based around ball-movement, constantly shifting the point of attack and getting in behind the opposition defence. Due to the sheer dynamism of the attack – 259 passes, 9 offloads, 182 ball carries, 425 post-contact metres, 13 line-breaks against France – I think it’s very difficult for a classical openside to consistently stay close to the source without being exhausted after 10 minutes.
So what’s important for an openside in this system is game understanding, the ability to cut corners around the field and anticipate what’s going to happen. And I do think someone like Savea has an uncanny ability to see certain plays unfold before they’ve occurred, whether it’s a line-break or an opposition player becoming isolated. So I’d like to see him given an extended run in the jersey, and see whether he can adapt to the requirements.
But what Robertson does need to be mindful of, I think, in the upcoming tests is to have enough “fresh” carrying options on the field at all times. In the France game, Lio-Willie spent the opening 10 minutes of the 2nd half mostly just tackling and cleaning, which meant that Savea did most of the hard carries through the middle on his own. If Robertson goes to his bench earlier – bringing on Taukei’aho and Norris, for example, at halftime – then I think it would’ve been easier for Savea to share the carrying load and maintain his own energy levels.
The attack seemed quite different to me in this game vs last year. Jordie Barrett probably made as many passes in that game as he did in the whole of last season, and was frequently at first receiver too - this I really liked, especially with McKenzie on the field too - it's got to be hard to defend against. I don't like the Barbarians style 'score off every play' mindset though. Other teams will knuckle down when they've got inside the 22, apply pressure and more often that not get a penalty advantage and continue applying pressure until there's a card. We either score immediately or throw (kick) it away.
Totally agree with this. Gone are the days where we can win games by 30 points with 40% possession. This bizarre need to score immediately, to lack the patience to run multiple phases (read: 15+ sometimes), it’s quite bewildering. It seems if we don’t go forward for 2 phases on a row, we feel the need to try something new - an unnecessary pass , a grubber, a cross-kick, or to launch a shitty bomb or box kick that effectively says to the opposition “here, you have a go now”.
We can’t we understand that it’s ok to reset, to control the ball and force the defense to make 20 tackles in the space of a few minutes, proving but playing smart?
It’s the same strange tactics that never sees us making long exits anymore. I know BB doesn’t have the range so some of that is ability. But DMac and Jordie can both kick long but rarely seem to. It seems so rare that we see an exit from our 22 get even close to halfway anymore.
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@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
That may be true, but I think it's a prime example of a statistic in isolation obscuring the reality of the overall picture. It's frequently multiple phases leading to an advantage, leading to multiple penalties, leading to a card, leading to try off a lineout from one of those infringements. And then frequently another score as a result of playing against 14. And the perception of the ref is that the defensive team is infringing repeatedly.
I suspect that penalties and cards are more likely from the lineout than from more phases too. I wouldn't assume that this hasn't been thought out. Multiple teams do the same thing
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On the forwards, I can’t believe we are bagging Holland for not being a dynamic runner just yet. Bloody hell, give the guy a break. Certainly not his core role, his job is to clean up the rucks after Ardie and CWL get stopped in their tracks and Kirifi gets smashed backwards…
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@antipodean said in All Blacks v France I:
@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
@antipodean said in All Blacks v France I:
@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
@No-Quarter said in All Blacks v France I:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks v France I:
For the same reason as savea i reckon I'm close to done with DMac.
I can understand the allure, when it goes right it goes very right, but is it balanced out by the untold errors and created pressure?
I'm quite torn on DMac and Beauden, I caused a bit of a stir when I said picking Beauden for this test wasn't all that controversial as I think they are much of a muchness really. Personally I'd have DMac starting at 10 just on account of his kicking game, as we can struggle to get out of our half when on the back foot otherwise.
But outside of that both players go from the sublime to the ridiculous far too often for test match footy.
Hard disagree. McKenzie kicked the ball away badly once (and fortuitously grabbed the rebound). He also threw an intercept - which really doesn't count, as it was under penalty advantage so why not.
Aside from that , his decision-making was pretty conservative - he took contact in preference to trying too much on several occasions.My takeaway was he danced around and then flat footed just popped it to a stationary forward to get smashed.
An the same thing can be described as: he looked for gaps, and made/took a few half-gaps - and when there wasn't one he recycled and maintained possession.
And are you going to rubbish other players for similar/worse poor options? How about Roigard for ignoring Jordie inside him who would have scored? And for his bizarre kick to nobody on attack?
Oh now I see how this game is played: If I respond to a comment at odds with my opinion I then need to apply that analysis/ criticism to every other player too.
It's not that, it's just the persistent myth that McKenzie is still a guy who always looks for high risk plays - it irritates me, because a different standard is applied to him than other players.
He has played what, 3 super seasons in a row where he has played relatively conservatively - kicked a lot and kicked well. His sideways running is all but gone from his game, unless it's a quick look for a gap or to buy time for his forwards - which are good things, especially when you're small and need support or risk a turnover. I think he's changed (and continues to change) the way he plays hugely, and the comparisons to Barrett - who hasn't changed a thing, pretty much ever? -
@Duluth said in All Blacks v France I:
@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
That may be true, but I think it's a prime example of a statistic in isolation obscuring the reality of the overall picture. It's frequently multiple phases leading to an advantage, leading to multiple penalties, leading to a card, leading to try off a lineout from one of those infringements. And then frequently another score as a result of playing against 14. And the perception of the ref is that the defensive team is infringing repeatedly.
I suspect that penalties and cards are more likely from the lineout than from more phases too. I wouldn't assume that this hasn't been thought out. Multiple teams do the same thing
Maybe they are more likely, but that doesn't really change things - you still get that lineout if you take 10 phases under advantage, and will frequently get another offside penalty/advantage in that time. That extra is then on top of the upcoming penalty at the lineout, and there's your card.
My biggest beef is with kicking it away when we have attacking momentum and don't have advantage though i.e. Beauden's grubber etc. One or two against set defence to mix it up sure, but not when we are on a roll.
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@Mr-Fish said in All Blacks v France I:
I think doing the basics right is incredibly important but I also expect All Blacks do be doing more than just the basics. As I say, hopefully Holland develops into a player that's a bit more than just a safe pair of hands.
Again, I just think there's an interesting double standard between what we expect from a lock (in particular, this lock) and what we expect from any of our loose forwards. Retallick and Whitelock were certainly much more than just busy and accurate (and from right at the starts of their careers too). Holland may get there after only a couple of games too.
I would say he puts pressure on 9s when they kicking from base of rucks more than any other lock in NZ. Even when Barrett got the charge down, who was right beside him so the 9 couldn't go that way? Holland. Stop looking for locks and props on highlight packages. He's putting pressure on at second phase most of time and making tackles (highest on Saturday with 16, 13 carries etc etc. I really feel you need to watch a little harder.
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@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
@antipodean said in All Blacks v France I:
@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
@antipodean said in All Blacks v France I:
@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
@No-Quarter said in All Blacks v France I:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks v France I:
For the same reason as savea i reckon I'm close to done with DMac.
I can understand the allure, when it goes right it goes very right, but is it balanced out by the untold errors and created pressure?
I'm quite torn on DMac and Beauden, I caused a bit of a stir when I said picking Beauden for this test wasn't all that controversial as I think they are much of a muchness really. Personally I'd have DMac starting at 10 just on account of his kicking game, as we can struggle to get out of our half when on the back foot otherwise.
But outside of that both players go from the sublime to the ridiculous far too often for test match footy.
Hard disagree. McKenzie kicked the ball away badly once (and fortuitously grabbed the rebound). He also threw an intercept - which really doesn't count, as it was under penalty advantage so why not.
Aside from that , his decision-making was pretty conservative - he took contact in preference to trying too much on several occasions.My takeaway was he danced around and then flat footed just popped it to a stationary forward to get smashed.
An the same thing can be described as: he looked for gaps, and made/took a few half-gaps - and when there wasn't one he recycled and maintained possession.
And are you going to rubbish other players for similar/worse poor options? How about Roigard for ignoring Jordie inside him who would have scored? And for his bizarre kick to nobody on attack?
Oh now I see how this game is played: If I respond to a comment at odds with my opinion I then need to apply that analysis/ criticism to every other player too.
It's not that, it's just the persistent myth that McKenzie is still a guy who always looks for high risk plays - it irritates me, because a different standard is applied to him than other players.
He has played what, 3 super seasons in a row where he has played relatively conservatively - kicked a lot and kicked well. His sideways running is all but gone from his game, unless it's a quick look for a gap or to buy time for his forwards - which are good things, especially when you're small and need support or risk a turnover. I think he's changed (and continues to change) the way he plays hugely, and the comparisons to Barrett - who hasn't changed a thing, pretty much ever?Yep, agree with this. If the ABs want him to play conservatively he'll play conservatively, he's done it specific games for the Chiefs for the last three years. Arguably the Chiefs veered too far away from that style in the final to their detriment.
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@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
Maybe they are more likely, but that doesn't really change things - you still get that lineout if you take 10 phases under advantage
Burning the advantage would be criminal though. 10 phases gets into a subjective ref call. Or, another example is a bad cleanout (foul play) and you lose everything. That is a risk in the current game.
I just object to the idea that everything is stupid and that teams don't actually look at these numbers. Getting to the preferred situation immediately is a tactical call that will be thought about
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@Duluth said in All Blacks v France I:
@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
Maybe they are more likely, but that doesn't really change things - you still get that lineout if you take 10 phases under advantage
Burning the advantage would be criminal though. 10 phases gets into a subjective ref call. Or, another example is a bad cleanout (foul play) and you lose everything. That is a risk in the current game.
I just object to the idea that everything is stupid and that teams don't actually look at these numbers. Getting to the preferred situation immediately is a tactical call that will be thought about
I'm sure they look at it, but isn't it pretty obvious that some other teams do press the advantage? Presumably they've come to a different conclusion, so it must be debatable at least.
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks v France I:
I hate that he gets no credit for beating 3 dudes
2 dudes. I don’t think beating old revolving door Campese even counts does it ?
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@reprobate said in All Blacks v France I:
so it must be debatable at least.
I was responding to the claim it was stupid and 'why would a team do this'
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks v France I:
I hate that he gets no credit for beating 3 dudes
Unfortunately it's a results based business
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Good to see that Holland has instantly transformed into a Fern favourite.
I'm looking forward to seeing him grow, amazing how upset people are getting simply because I suggested he was underwhelming. Will dip out of this debate, clearly something I'm missing!
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@Mr-Fish it's a really weird take, that a guy that did everything right in his debut test at a young age in a struggling team, including topping some critical stats - was underwhelming because he didn't make a Lomu like run or two. Be worth comparing with Vaai....
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For the second test, though Tupaea did very well when he came in, Robertson should try something different with Big Jim on the bench. How many turnovers did the ABs win on saturday ? They need someone who is a menace at the breakdown. There are none in the forwards selected as Kirifi is not solid enough in that kind of phase against big forwards. Remember his game against the Brumbies in the quarter final. The problem with the NZ best jackalers is that none of them is AB material (Christie, Withy, Choat).
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@cgrant said in All Blacks v France I:
Kirifi is not solid enough in that kind of phase against big forwards. Remember his game against the Brumbies in the quarter final.
Didn't Kirifi win a last minute breakdown penalty in this game to give Canes one last shot at winning?
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@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks v France I:
@cgrant said in All Blacks v France I:
Kirifi is not solid enough in that kind of phase against big forwards. Remember his game against the Brumbies in the quarter final.
Didn't Kirifi win a last minute breakdown penalty in this game to give Canes one last shot at winning?
That sounds like facts. You really need to be focused on vibe
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@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks v France I:
@cgrant said in All Blacks v France I:
Kirifi is not solid enough in that kind of phase against big forwards. Remember his game against the Brumbies in the quarter final.
Didn't Kirifi win a last minute breakdown penalty in this game to give Canes one last shot at winning?
He certainly wasn't as prominent in that game as he had been all season. Made quite a few tackles. Lakai similarly quiet. Flanders was the pick of the Canes loosies.
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@booboo said in All Blacks v France I:
People often see what they look for.
No they don’t….
For what it’s worth I don’t have anything against either Beaudy or DMac but both have shown flaws in their play at 1st 5 that largely mirror each other - trying too hard to create the big play or appearing to want to score on almost every phase, mixed bag kicking game.
They are both excellent when it comes to broken play footy and instinctual play in those scenarios. We’ve seen some phenomenal play from both in that regard. But a more balanced methodical approach whilst having those broken play moments is what is needed. I saw more of that balanced approach from Caleb Muntz yesterday for Fiji than Beaudy for example. Not to discount some of the very good plays Beaudy did make.
I hold my breath every time I watch these two guys play 10.
