RWC bolters
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@Stargazer said in RWC bolters:
@taniwharugby Sigh, my point was not about Robinson being a bolter if selected. It was about Robinson unlikely to be selected.
Again ... sometimes I think you're deliberately obtuse ...
... and then ...
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@Bones said in RWC bolters:
@Chris-B he looks pretty out of shape and not in as good form as last year.
He always has (looked pretty out of shape).
He's hitting his lineout targets, scrumming OK and a few nice little touches around the field.
I reckon he's done quite well starting for the Crusaders - and I'm not enamoured of his competition (for the third spot).
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Another way to look at this. Who are the 26 players who if fit are very likely indeed to go to Japan?
Moody, Franks, Ofa T, Laulala,
Taylor, Coles, Harris
Retallick, Whitelock, S. Barrett, Patrick T
Cane, Savea, Read
A.Smith, Perenera
B.Barrett, Mo'unga
Crotty, SBW (should be Laumape), Goodhue
R. Ioane, B. Smith, DMac, J.Barrett -
@Stargazer Based on Hansen's remarks (see article near top of thread) that most NZ fans could already name 25 or so of the RWC squad, that there is room for more bolters than in the past and getting those last positions right will be the priority for the selectors now.
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In 2015, the initial squad for the RWC consisted of:
3 hookers
5 props
3 locks
6 loosies
3 halfbacks
3 first five-eighths
4 midfielders (2 second five-eighths and 2 centres)
4 outside backs (2 specialist wings)The number of 10s and outside backs will depend on whether they name Dmac as a first five-eighth, fullback, or utility back, but you'd expect at least two specialist wings again. So Rieko and at least one of Naholo/Bridge. BFA will be a certainty if fit. So adding up the 10s and outside backs (7), there's probably only room for two of Naholo, Bridge and Jordie.
Midfielders: probably four players, Crotty, Goodhue, ALB, and one of SBW/Laumape. Agree it should be Laumape, but ...
Halfbacks select themselves.
Lock/loosie will be interesting: will they count S Barrett as a lock or a loosie. Combined there should be 7 spots. Certainties are Retallick, S Whitelock, S Barret, A Savea, Read. Cane is a big question. Will he be fit enough in time? Will he come back as the quality player from before his broken neck. Todd will be in the conversation. The 6 jersey is the big question. S Barrett can play there; they might consider Cane for that spot, too.
Props: we need at least 2 LH and 2 TH, and preferably one that can play both (Ofa). So probably Moody, Franks, Laulala, Ofa and ... Tu'inukuafe?
Hookers: Taylor and Coles are certainties, if fit. I'm afraid Harris will be picked, too. It will be hard for any other hooker to play himself into the squad. I'd like them to try Makalio during the TRC, but don't think it will happen.
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@Stargazer said in RWC bolters:
@sparky Why only 26?
Probably because that's how many would be in ink if fit. Shag says most NZers could pick 25. This is the fern and we go one better.
Shows the spaces to fill if all goes to plan.
1 prop (Karl T?)
2 loosies (if S Barrett covers as 6/lock), (Squire? Frizzel? Ioane? Fifita?)
1 halfback (TTT?)
1 centre (ALB?Laumape?)
1 outside back (Naholo? Bolter?)So in two of those empty slots the option is fairly obvious.
Questions are loosies, centres (quite possible one of SBW or Crotty will be broken anyway) and if they stick with Naholo or surprise us. -
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I agree. Will Jordan probably only comes into play for the RWC if there is an injury to a more experienced player.
But I think he would have the goods if needed. He already looks an improved player than in 2018, more pace, better vision. Ben Smith's replacement from 2020 IMHO.
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Bolters - Bryn Hall, Bridge and Will Jordan. That would make a strong starting XV.
Moody
Taylor
Franks
Whitelock
Romano
S. Barrett
Todd
Read
Hall
Mo’unga
Bridge
Crotty
Goodhue
Havilli
Jordan -
At this point of the season I find the speculation about the potential squad composition more interesting than the potential players selection.
Due to the lack of utility players the selectors off this squad will need to have a crystal clear idea which players they are going to be willing to carry if/when they pick up a significant injury early in the tournament and which they will replace immediately.
With that in mind; they will return to four locks (including Barrett) after taking three last tournament, with five (down from six) additional loosies is the mix in the forwards.
There were murmurings of taking two halfbacks last time; I wouldn't be surprised if they look at this again to free up an extra spot to fix the positional inflexibility in the backline. With the M10 Cup running concurrently and jetlag not an issue I would strongly consider going in that direction. If Ben Smith gets dinged up early (older, history of headknocks, etc etc) most mock squads don't provide adequate within-squad coverage aside from DMac which is...uh...not ideal.
It's honestly quite amazing comparing this batch to the 2007 which had intra-squad versatility that respectably covered each backline position three players deep.
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@Stargazer DMac will be the third first five - even though he may actually be the starting fullback.
There's no-one else close and even if e.g. Black or Ioane has an standout Super seasons it's too late to give them any test rugby.
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Positional inflexibility? I think we are ok in that area. Quite possibly will have a 10/15, a 15/10, a 15/14, a 15/14 that everyone tells me should be a 12, two 12/13s (Crotty and ALB).
Only thing missing is a 9/10 and the closest we have had to one of those in yonks was Weepu. DMac could do that against a minnow anyway. -
@Crucial said in RWC bolters:
Positional inflexibility? I think we are ok in that area. Quite possibly will have a 10/15, a 15/10, a 15/14, a 15/14 that everyone tells me should be a 12, two 12/13s (Crotty and ALB).
I think that is a strong argument for the match day 23's ability to cover adequately at a pinch. They have had decent experience this cycle with the amount of yellows which our backs have been earning.
In the examples you have suggested Smith obviously is world class in either role, and the centres are adequately covered (perhaps even too much mix and match opportunities) but Barrett starting at 15 (in his first test ever AND creating a bigger hole at 10 than you have filled at 15) is not flexibility.
The 14 backs in the 2007 squad by contrast probably made up the 3 best players in the country for each backline position and who had actually played substantial test rugby recently at those respective positions.
Perhaps a lot of it comes down to how much you rate Mckenzie (I don't), but there is a very real chance we won't even be able to select the second best player in the country for one of the back three positions simply due to not having a viable 15/13 or another genuinely flexible 14/15 or 10/15.
