Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels
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I am nervous, but logically we shouldn't worry too much. We're a better team now than in 2018 and we've made changes to our game specifically to address the challenges of teams like Ireland.
Ireland on the other hand are clearly worse than 12 months ago.
Besides, though we were totally beaten up by Ireland last year we only lost by 7 points, and if Read doesn't drop the ball we probably would have been ok. Ireland will need to play very well and we'll need to be off our best - and even then we still probably win.
Concerns revolve around a card and our scrum, particularly as the reserves come on.
I don't rule a loss out, but I'd be very surprised.
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@Damo that is my starting position to. Then I think about the vageries of knockout rugby and the current state of laws/rulings!!
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@Snowy cracked now the lawns are done.
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@taniwharugby said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@Snowy cracked now the lawns are done.
Going to do lawns now to fill in time. Tractor has a bottle holder but should have more of them, and a chilly bin. A fridge would actually be really good. I'll get on to Kubota with my best wishes for their team and my suggestion.
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@Crucial said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@Nepia said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
I'm about to watch Round 1 of whether this will be a successful day. TBH, lose either and this will be a shit day.
One is fine.
The first one.
Nope, will still be a shit day ... I'll just be slightly less grumpy as I go to bed.
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As for consequences if we lose. Hansen will be tarnished a little bit, but not that much. Foster won't become coach, and there will likely be a wholly new coaching panel appointed - hopefully including Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown.
Read's career will be somewhat tarnished I think. He'll be remembered as a captain that didn't quite live up to the hype.
I doubt there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth like in 1999 and 2007. We have won two in a row and got the monkey off the back.
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@Damo said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
As for consequences if we lose. Hansen will be tarnished a little bit, but not that much. Foster won't become coach, and there will likely be a wholly new coaching panel appointed - hopefully including Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown.
Read's career will be somewhat tarnished I think. He'll be remembered as a captain that didn't quite live up to the hype.
I doubt there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth like in 1999 and 2007. We have won two in a row and got the monkey off the back.
I think the team has to go deep, otherwise Hansen's career as headcoach will be revisited - we've been on the downhill since Carter and McCaw left, couldn't set on a midfield since he lost two greats, loved SBW too much, chased away the obvious Kaino replacement, couldn't get the best out Barrett, waited to long to get rid of Franks (alternatively, should never had got rid of Franks), picked the wrong side for Ireland - leading to their first win, couldn't beat the Lions. I think anything less that a final puts all of these questions on the table.
Edit: Couldn't get world class assistants, couldn't find a way to beat the rush.
I'm sure there are more.
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@gt12 said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@Damo said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
As for consequences if we lose. Hansen will be tarnished a little bit, but not that much. Foster won't become coach, and there will likely be a wholly new coaching panel appointed - hopefully including Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown.
Read's career will be somewhat tarnished I think. He'll be remembered as a captain that didn't quite live up to the hype.
I doubt there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth like in 1999 and 2007. We have won two in a row and got the monkey off the back.
I think the team has to go deep, otherwise Hansen's career as headcoach will be revisited - we've been on the downhill since Carter and McCaw left, couldn't set on a midfield since he lost two greats, loved SBW too much, chased away the obvious Kaino replacement, couldn't get the best out Barrett, waited to long to get rid of Franks (alternatively, should never had got rid of Franks), picked the wrong side for Ireland - leading to their first win, couldn't beat the Lions. I think anything less that a final puts all of these questions on the table.
Edit: Couldn't get world class assistants, couldn't find a way to beat the rush.
I'm sure there are more.
Luatua?
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@Frye said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@gt12 said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@Damo said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
As for consequences if we lose. Hansen will be tarnished a little bit, but not that much. Foster won't become coach, and there will likely be a wholly new coaching panel appointed - hopefully including Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown.
Read's career will be somewhat tarnished I think. He'll be remembered as a captain that didn't quite live up to the hype.
I doubt there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth like in 1999 and 2007. We have won two in a row and got the monkey off the back.
I think the team has to go deep, otherwise Hansen's career as headcoach will be revisited - we've been on the downhill since Carter and McCaw left, couldn't set on a midfield since he lost two greats, loved SBW too much, chased away the obvious Kaino replacement, couldn't get the best out Barrett, waited to long to get rid of Franks (alternatively, should never had got rid of Franks), picked the wrong side for Ireland - leading to their first win, couldn't beat the Lions. I think anything less that a final puts all of these questions on the table.
Edit: Couldn't get world class assistants, couldn't find a way to beat the rush.
I'm sure there are more.
Luatua?
That's there, probably my biggest complaint about Hansen's tenure, actually.
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@gt12 said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@Damo said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
As for consequences if we lose. Hansen will be tarnished a little bit, but not that much. Foster won't become coach, and there will likely be a wholly new coaching panel appointed - hopefully including Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown.
Read's career will be somewhat tarnished I think. He'll be remembered as a captain that didn't quite live up to the hype.
I doubt there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth like in 1999 and 2007. We have won two in a row and got the monkey off the back.
I think the team has to go deep, otherwise Hansen's career as headcoach will be revisited - we've been on the downhill since Carter and McCaw left, couldn't set on a midfield since he lost two greats, loved SBW too much, chased away the obvious Kaino replacement, couldn't get the best out Barrett, waited to long to get rid of Franks (alternatively, should never had got rid of Franks), picked the wrong side for Ireland - leading to their first win, couldn't beat the Lions. I think anything less that a final puts all of these questions on the table.
Edit: Couldn't get world class assistants, couldn't find a way to beat the rush.
I'm sure there are more.
Well, let's fuck*ng win then.
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Bring on Ireland, England, Australia, Wales, Japan.
But not that South African rugby team. They look unbeatable with that amazing size, strength and speed. They are about 3 feet taller than every Japanese player. They have bigger muscles than the ABs. They have goal kicking for days ahead of Ireland and Wales. Their outside backs will leave the Poms for dead. And the Aussies run scared with faced with the real Green and Yellow team.
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@Crucial said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@Nepia said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
I'm about to watch Round 1 of whether this will be a successful day. TBH, lose either and this will be a shit day.
One is fine.
The first one.
Round 1 gets a tick, although a very shaky one.
Bring on Round 2.
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@Billy-Tell said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
Might be famous last words, but I think we win:
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The Irish got hammered vs England in the first match of the 6N. I thought it was just being caught out cold first up and that Schmidt would rejig things, and they would be OK. But they were wiped off the park by Wales. And then destroyed again by England (albeit in a warmup game). They looked good vs Scotland and Samoa because those teams were inept.
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Maybe Schmidt has been hiding something away...otherwise I see the same tactics and team that have been found wanting in 2019
It just comes down to whether we hold our nerve...and I think we will. If we get an early lead of more than 10 points, I don't see Ireland coming back.
We see tomorrow if I'm right or wrong.
So far so good.
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