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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Another good-ish day in NSW, only 174 new cases and no deaths. Down from 212 yesterday.
The growth in the daily number has stopped for now, hopefully we can dodge the dreaded lockdown.
We had a few days like that ... then it just exploded.
I think avoiding lockdown would be a massive error I’m afraid.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Another good-ish day in NSW, only 174 new cases and no deaths. Down from 212 yesterday.
The growth in the daily number has stopped for now, hopefully we can dodge the dreaded lockdown.
9ish percent on yesterday - so far. Usually there is an update after 8PM from some of the state health sites. Still, if it comes in under 13% at midnight we're looking at progress.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Over 100% mobility? WTF?
Probably using historical data to determine average day?
Also re Alexei T, I hate when people panic over one fucking data point.
Agreed. Shits me at work too when I design an output, and it gets held back in case the message isn't 6.8million percent awesome one time, so raw-figures-to-massage please.
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The Ayatollah Morrison has just announced a lockdown in all but name - “strong advice“:
No one should leave their home except for defined activities - shop for food, medical appointments, work if not possible to WFH, exercise.Public gatherings limited to 2.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I don't think I'd be excited about trends until I see 5+ days straight. Nothing scientific in that, just feels like we need something more
Agreed, however I'm looking at the last 5 days in terms of case increase, and it is steady below 1.20 so that is better than where it was headed.
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@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
The Ayatollah Morrison has just announced a lockdown in all but name - “strong advice“:
No one should leave their home except for defined activities - shop for food, medical appointments, work if not possible to WFH, exercise.Public gatherings limited to 2.
He's a lot fucking clearer with his message tonight, as well.
Credit to him for starting to sharpen up on this.
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@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
The Ayatollah Morrison has just announced a lockdown in all but name - “strong advice“:
No one should leave their home except for defined activities - shop for food, medical appointments, work if not possible to WFH, exercise.Public gatherings limited to 2.
He's a lot fucking clearer with his message tonight, as well.
Credit to him for starting to sharpen up on this.
I think it’s still all a bit wishy washy though - why are they avoiding the lockdown when they’re 90% of the way there? The UK and NZ examples show that people are still hopeless even with clear lockdowns. We’re currently no different than before except I can only talk to one mate in public at a time.
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@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I think it’s still all a bit wishy washy though - why are they avoiding the lockdown when they’re 90% of the way there? The UK and NZ examples show that people are still hopeless even with clear lockdowns. We’re currently no different than before except I can only talk to one mate in public at a time.
Because IMO a full lockdown would be disastrous for job losses. Think of all the people (esp in regional areas) working on building sites, roadworks, mowing lawns etc. The stuff that's 'non essential' but still quite safe and important for keeping $$$ in communities.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Because IMO a full lockdown would be disastrous for job losses. Think of all the people (esp in regional areas) working on building sites, roadworks, mowing lawns etc. The stuff that's 'non essential' but still quite safe and important for keeping $$$ in communities.
I think we're already at "disastrous" based on what we've seen so far.
The Libs backed themselves into a corner on social support through successive years. The pandemic situation was a big enough mountain to climb without having to suddenly about-face on Newstart, Robodebt, etc.
It isn't going to be easy for a lot of people, even landlords. However, I would have limited sympathy for someone negatively gearing multiple properties or diving into some franking credits right now
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I think it’s still all a bit wishy washy though - why are they avoiding the lockdown when they’re 90% of the way there? The UK and NZ examples show that people are still hopeless even with clear lockdowns. We’re currently no different than before except I can only talk to one mate in public at a time.
Because IMO a full lockdown would be disastrous for job losses. Think of all the people (esp in regional areas) working on building sites, roadworks, mowing lawns etc. The stuff that's 'non essential' but still quite safe and important for keeping $$$ in communities.
I think you are missing the fact that lock down is all but inevitable. So why drag it out longer than it has to be. Lock down hard, hope that everyone can get back to work sooner rather than later. Or risk delays that turn 4 or 6 weeks into 3 months
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I think you are missing the fact that lock down is all but inevitable. So why drag it out longer than it has to be. Lock down hard, hope that everyone can get back to work sooner rather than later. Or risk delays that turn 4 or 6 weeks into 3 months
The dialogue is "up to 6 months" - they're using a classic corporate under-promise/over-deliver.
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@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I think you are missing the fact that lock down is all but inevitable. So why drag it out longer than it has to be. Lock down hard, hope that everyone can get back to work sooner rather than later. Or risk delays that turn 4 or 6 weeks into 3 months
The dialogue is "up to 6 months" - they're using a classic corporate under-promise/over-deliver.
Cindy is using the reverse strategy here. Says it's 4 weeks, then she might extend it due to "new information" such as infection numbers that aren't favourable, by then everyone is used to the lock down idea
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I think you are missing the fact that lock down is all but inevitable. So why drag it out longer than it has to be. Lock down hard, hope that everyone can get back to work sooner rather than later. Or risk delays that turn 4 or 6 weeks into 3 months
The dialogue is "up to 6 months" - they're using a classic corporate under-promise/over-deliver.
Cindy is using the reverse strategy here. Says it's 4 weeks, then she might extend it due to "new information" such as infection numbers that aren't favourable, by then everyone is used to the lock down idea
And TBH I prefer that: "4 weeks IF EVERYONE DOES THEIR FUCKING JOB" is how I take it.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I think it’s still all a bit wishy washy though - why are they avoiding the lockdown when they’re 90% of the way there? The UK and NZ examples show that people are still hopeless even with clear lockdowns. We’re currently no different than before except I can only talk to one mate in public at a time.
Because IMO a full lockdown would be disastrous for job losses. Think of all the people (esp in regional areas) working on building sites, roadworks, mowing lawns etc. The stuff that's 'non essential' but still quite safe and important for keeping $$$ in communities.
As @canefan says I think lockdown is inevitable, and we're getting closer and closer to it every day, but as that continues we increase the chance of community infection. But, I think not having clarity is the biggest issue, I just think people are more likely to ignore "strong advice" than directions from the govt.
It's already disastrous for job losses. Of my close knit Sydney friends there's already been four job losses (one of them worked for the Tahs so that was to be expected). I don't want any job losses obviously, but if it kicks off massively here in Sydney we're going to have those job losses anyway and the health system is going to take a battering.
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I disagree with the notion that 'a lockdown is inevitable so just do it now'.
Firstly I'm not sure it is inevitable. It seems clear the Australian Government has received different advice to the NZ Government.
But more importantly the 'it's already bad for jobs, so what's a few more?' is a bit tough on the hundreds of thousands of people who are still in construction jobs. Or landscaping or mechanics or packing shelves at Bunnings.
I don't blame the Government for trying to keep as many people in jobs for as long as possible.
With our growth rate slowing, clearly something is working. It might not be slowing fast enough, but I'm not sure there's enough evidence the 'shut it down and it will all be sweet in four weeks' theory will work any better than our current strategy.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I disagree with the notion that 'a lockdown is inevitable so just do it now'.
Firstly I'm not sure it is inevitable. It seems clear the Australian Government has received different advice to the NZ Government.
But more importantly the 'it's already bad for jobs, so what's a few more?' is a bit tough on the hundreds of thousands of people who are still in construction jobs. Or landscaping or mechanics or packing shelves at Bunnings.
I don't blame the Government for trying to keep as many people in jobs for as long as possible.
With our growth rate slowing, clearly something is working. It might not be slowing fast enough, but I'm not sure there's enough evidence the 'shut it down and it will all be sweet in four weeks' theory will work any better than our current strategy.
It's a big gamble. The only countries I can find that are not engaged in some sort of lockdown are Australia, the USA and the Netherlands (I must admit I didn't look very hard)
Coronavirus - Australia