Coronavirus - Overall
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
On a separate note, if your portfolio is cash heavy it’s probably a good place to be, though it’s difficult to be ballsy when adding risk back in to the portfolio. The last week or two will have caught out those with cash a bit. Or has it? 64k question.
I'm really not that worried about the capital going up and down. I just need a steady stream of income and/or enough reserves for 2-3 years serious market turmoil. Bloke who manages my pension has seen a fair bit of financial life and we can both remember the '87 crash - and almost immediate recovery.
In normal circumstances I would agree about capital volatility but as and when interest rates do start to increase and/or we see real inflation at some point then it is looking like a long hard road downhill for bonds, certainly in relation to the free ride we've seen from the early 70's till pretty much now. In re the 87 crash and the others that we've seen since, they were either bubbles (87) or a liquidity crash (08). What we have on our hands now is a consumption crash which is quite a different animal. Can we get through this quick enough to see companies survive to ensure jobs which will then allow consumption to return?
On the bonds front there's been a supercycle of interest rate falls for most of the last 35 years. UK yields are the lowest in 300 years! The system has been kept going by artifically low loans from BOE to banks, mandated holding of gilts by banks, procyclical capital reserve policies for insurance companies (which mandate selling when equities fall and countenance buying when dear) and mistaken belief that matching of 12 year + liabilities of pension funds with gilts is risk reducing (in fact the drop in returns makes deficits more likely, not less!).
But the authorities have massive skin in the game, so although I firmly believe the equilibrium yield for gilts is at least 2% higher than now, my instincts tell me the BOE will fight like hell to try and prevent that. King Canute, maybe?
I think Coronavirus will have some profound changes on society and the economy. Less reliance on China and more on manufacturing perhaps and a poss. increase in productivity as people the the commute (and the time/effort wasted) isn't necessary 5 days a week.
But will Sunak & BoJo take a cold, hard look and the levels of UK government spending (much wasted) & overall tax burden and push thru radical changes? Or will we perhaps see some hypotheticated tax rises to pay for this ?
I would love to think that the current lot would cull a lot of the waste in Government but I just don't see that Genie ever getting put back in the bottle. One of the biggest stumbling points is that the people that would have to implement things would also be the people at risk. Turkeys and Christmas.
Great example NHS, where administrators cram down on medical costs whilst rewarding their own flattulence with gold.
UK could come out of this far more dynamic or more like Japan.
-
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. An easy way to solve most of this countries economic issues is to charge for the NHS. Not 100% of course, in fact a very limited amount. 10 GBP to see a doctor, 100 GBP for surgery. The enemy of free stuff has always been waste.
This 100%
Free prescriptions in Wales. Lots take the piss.
I know, it's crazy that drugs, in any form, can be free. So open to abuse.
I have hope for my idea though. The worshipping of the NHS may potentially give rise to people being ok with paying for it directly. And now that Corbyn is gone, and Covid has done it's thing in changing peoples mindsets, I see a glimmer of hope.
-
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
What we have on our hands now is a consumption crash which is quite a different animal. Can we get through this quick enough to see companies survive to ensure jobs which will then allow consumption to return?
There's likely to be a pent-up demand which could push up growth and poss. inflation, it's what happens when that tails off which worries me. Been out of the loop for too long, but I take a positive view that UK business is actually quite nimble and that will help the recovery somewhat.
It's the huge amount of debt held by governments, individuals and companies which should worry people. That has to be paid back sometime and reducing the value of the debt will surely hurt those holding the paper and in turn the economy.
Reducing the value of debt won't impact pension funds that much (net). They bought higher up and their liabilities are generally treated as if they were bond payments so will be reduced at same time. Huge opportunity cost, but the pension regulator doesn't care (or understand) that. Main parties hit would be geared speculators with maturity mismatches and overseas investors.
I think tax increases across the board are likely as are significant National Insurance reforms - either turning it slowly into a German model or expanding it and, in reality, merging it with income and corporation tax.
NI WILL get reformed. Some general increases but even Tony Blair has pointed out that the only near term way out is to grow the economy, so entrepeneurs can't be spanked too hard?!
-
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Victor-Meldrew I think you are right about tax increases, although I have no idea how Boris will play this. Reality is that Income Tax + NI + VAT is already some of the highest in the world outside the Scandies & if he does raise, it goes against everything he's promised his voters.
Having said that, we are in a strange, and unprecedented times, so something will need to be done - I just don't know what that is.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. An easy way to solve most of this countries economic issues is to charge for the NHS. Not 100% of course, in fact a very limited amount. 10 GBP to see a doctor, 100 GBP for surgery. The enemy of free stuff has always been waste.
But the political fallout would be catastrophic.
The recent 50% fall in A & E activity suggests to me that a lot of visits are unnecessary. I agree that some type of charging would make sense.
Perhaps a £30 a visit, with a personal credit of £60 a year, and 50% refund if visit justified?
Sure someone can come up with much better system!
-
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Victor-Meldrew I think you are right about tax increases, although I have no idea how Boris will play this. Reality is that Income Tax + NI + VAT is already some of the highest in the world outside the Scandies & if he does raise, it goes against everything he's promised his voters.
Having said that, we are in a strange, and unprecedented times, so something will need to be done - I just don't know what that is.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. An easy way to solve most of this countries economic issues is to charge for the NHS. Not 100% of course, in fact a very limited amount. 10 GBP to see a doctor, 100 GBP for surgery. The enemy of free stuff has always been waste.
But the political fallout would be catastrophic.
The recent 50% fall in A & E activity suggests to me that a lot of visits are unnecessary. I agree that some type of charging would make sense.
Perhaps a £30 a visit, with a personal credit of £60 a year, and 50% refund if visit justified?
Sure someone can come up with much better system!
Working in private A&E in Auckland I would say this is definitely true. Even when they have to pay for it patients feel the need to bring their cold and flu into the clinic only to leave with the script for panadol that they could have bought at the pharmacy or already had at home
-
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. An easy way to solve most of this countries economic issues is to charge for the NHS. Not 100% of course, in fact a very limited amount. 10 GBP to see a doctor, 100 GBP for surgery. The enemy of free stuff has always been waste.
This 100%
Free prescriptions in Wales. Lots take the piss.
I know, it's crazy that drugs, in any form, can be free. So open to abuse.
I have hope for my idea though. The worshipping of the NHS may potentially give rise to people being ok with paying for it directly. And now that Corbyn is gone, and Covid has done it's thing in changing peoples mindsets, I see a glimmer of hope.
Bands of payment based on ability to pay up to a maximum charge regardless of wealth seems the fairest all round.
And patients willing to help themselves. If you're not prepared to change lifestyle then you don't deserve expensive surgery, treatment etc
-
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. An easy way to solve most of this countries economic issues is to charge for the NHS. Not 100% of course, in fact a very limited amount. 10 GBP to see a doctor, 100 GBP for surgery. The enemy of free stuff has always been waste.
This 100%
Free prescriptions in Wales. Lots take the piss.
I know, it's crazy that drugs, in any form, can be free. So open to abuse.
I have hope for my idea though. The worshipping of the NHS may potentially give rise to people being ok with paying for it directly. And now that Corbyn is gone, and Covid has done it's thing in changing peoples mindsets, I see a glimmer of hope.
Bands of payment based on ability to pay up to a maximum charge regardless of wealth seems the fairest all round.
No, disagree. Tax bands already cover that. A fair system is not one where a person who pays 50k in income tax, then pays more than somebody who pays zero.
And patients willing to help themselves. If you're not prepared to change lifestyle then you don't deserve expensive surgery, treatment etc
Yes indeed. Although the mental health activists (which I might add I think for the most part do a fantastic job) would never allow that.
-
Although the Japanese system is having trouble paying for itself as we get less workers, we pay 20/30% and the government pays 80/70% and the system works well.
It costs me about $100 for my MRIs and about $10-$20 for a doctor visit.
Still, some ppl take advantage - with young kids you can go a bit crazy as kids stuff is free. So, take your kids in with a red spot and walk out with a bunch of medicated moisturizer.
-
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Bands of payment based on ability to pay up to a maximum charge regardless of wealth seems the fairest all round.
How do you assess "ability to pay"? Sounds like a bureaucratic nightmare and playing the politics of envy.
While the UK population thinks the NHS is either (a) under-funded (whatever that actually means) or (b) is somehow the "envy of the world", nothing is going to change on the NHS front. It will continue to deliver poor quality medical care and health outcomes compared to other countries, while spending above -average amounts of taxpayers money.
-
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
NI WILL get reformed. Some general increases but even Tony Blair has pointed out that the only near term way out is to grow the economy, so entrepeneurs can't be spanked too hard?!
Don't you believe it. There's still a strong-ish cultural opposition in the UK against people making money and taking risks.
Just ask Jamie Oliver or the crap that gets thrown at James Dyson or JCB because they manufacture in Asia.
-
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
NI WILL get reformed. Some general increases but even Tony Blair has pointed out that the only near term way out is to grow the economy, so entrepeneurs can't be spanked too hard?!
Don't you believe it. There's still a strong-ish cultural opposition in the UK against people making money and taking risks.
Just ask Jamie Oliver or the crap that gets thrown at James Dyson or JCB because they manufacture in Asia.
The media here plays a huge part. As they absolutely love to build up a persons profile / persona and them smash it down.
There is a still a strong appetite here to support entrepreneurship, perhaps more so for those that are out of the public eye. I certainly feel here that everybody has a shot at it, which is not the case in many other places. You stood zero chance of becoming extremely wealthy in Asia unless your family was already part of the money club.
I still remember when working at a US Bank there, we were trying to bring this kid into our business line and the head of the area saying no as he didn't have the right background. It was a non-sales role so relationships /network meant jack shit, whilst skills and worth ethic meant everything.
Perhaps for early entry into the big jobs that's still a ridiculously high factor in the UK, but not for progressive roles.
-
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
NI WILL get reformed. Some general increases but even Tony Blair has pointed out that the only near term way out is to grow the economy, so entrepeneurs can't be spanked too hard?!
Don't you believe it. There's still a strong-ish cultural opposition in the UK against people making money and taking risks.
Just ask Jamie Oliver or the crap that gets thrown at James Dyson or JCB because they manufacture in Asia.
I understand the tall poppy point.
But given the size of the Tory majority I can't see the top rate of tax rising more than 5%.
Around a month ago entrepeneural CGT review got a big change. Think anyone making less than £1m unaffected, but the 'fat cats' on more standard CGT rates above that.
-
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
But given the size of the Tory majority I can't see the top arte of tax rising more than 5%.
When you add on Employers & Employee NI, UK tax rates are really high. I don't think there's any alternative but to raise taxes, regardless of parliamentary majority.
The tax structure is just too complicated and tax rates way too high (with the exception of Corporation tax). Start scrapping fiddly allowances and cut rates or scrap certain taxes completely.
Around a month ago entrepeneural CGT review got a big change. Think anyone making less than £1m unaffected, but the 'fat cats' on more standard CGT rates above that.
A million quid seems a lot - It will buy you an indexed-linked pension for one junior Civil servant retiring at 60...
-
@Victor-Meldrew and VAT, vehicle excise duty, additional duty on tobacco, alcohol, fuel, Inheritance Tax, loss of personal allowance additional tax on your pension scheme doing well.
The system needs simplifying, giving people less incentive to evade or avoid payment. It’s not worth the hassle to avoid 35% (say) tax but 60% is a whole other ball game.
-
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
But given the size of the Tory majority I can't see the top arte of tax rising more than 5%.
When you add on Employers & Employee NI, UK tax rates are really high. I don't think there's any alternative but to raise taxes, regardless of parliamentary majority.
The tax structure is just too complicated and tax rates way too high (with the exception of Corporation tax). Start scrapping fiddly allowances and cut rates or scrap certain taxes completely.
Around a month ago entrepeneural CGT review got a big change. Think anyone making less than £1m unaffected, but the 'fat cats' on more standard CGT rates above that.
A million quid seems a lot - It will buy you an indexed-linked pension for one junior Civil servant retiring at 60...
I'd guess about GBP30k a year for life.
-
I wouldn't expect anything less.
-
@Toddy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
How is Greece not completely fu*ked? Ton of smokers, old population, generational living arrangements, poor public health system etc. Is it purely a case of covid19 not getting a hold there yet and the worst is to come? Or is there some other reason for low infection rate?
-
@Toddy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Toddy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
How is Greece not completely fu*ked? Ton of smokers, old population, generational living arrangements, poor public health system etc. Is it purely a case of covid19 not getting a hold there yet and the worst is to come? Or is there some other reason for low infection rate?
Olive oil.
-
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Frank where'd they find the extra virgin?
a horse farm in the Waikato