-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
-
@canefan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
That doesn't sound like the yearly flu to me.....
With no vaccine and no immunity built up these numbers whilst increasing still represent a small percentage of deaths in the UK.
-
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
-
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
You’ve obviously not seen today’s numbers.
We are officially completely fucked.
-
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
You’ve obviously not seen today’s numbers.
We are officially completely fucked.
A further almost 500 admissions on the 11th. Not good.
-
OK things are changing
143 deaths reported in the UK yesterday (13 October)
That's the first time back over 100 since 27 July
Would still like to see the breakdown of those being hospitalised and those dying.
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
You’ve obviously not seen today’s numbers.
We are officially completely fucked.
A further almost 500 admissions on the 11th. Not good.
There is always a lag between admissions and deaths because covid is not a rapid killer, it takes a few weeks at least
-
@canefan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
You’ve obviously not seen today’s numbers.
We are officially completely fucked.
A further almost 500 admissions on the 11th. Not good.
There is always a lag between admissions and deaths because covid is not a rapid killer, it takes a few weeks at least
True
Will be very interesting to see if the admissions demographic are different from the first wave.
And whether survival rate is higher based on different demographic and/or different treatments.
-
@canefan @MiketheSnow Still much to be learned about consequences of any of the data yet, but we’re currently in an upward trend in most points. Mike, what is your view on Starmer’s latest uttering? Last week it was all “ lockdowns aren’t working “ and now he’s all for the circuit breaker lockdown because the Government have “lost control” of the virus. This from the man who said he wouldn’t politicise the virus.
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@canefan @MiketheSnow Still much to be learned about consequences of any of the data yet, but we’re currently in an upward trend in most points. Mike, what is your view on Starmer’s latest uttering? Last week it was all “ lockdowns aren’t working “ and now he’s all for the circuit breaker lockdown because the Government have “lost control” of the virus. This from the man who said he wouldn’t politicise the virus.
If we don't secure our borders as NZ has done, then a lockdown is just delaying the inevitable in my opinion.
The UK situation is compounded by the number of 'at risk' people able to go about their daily lives propped up by pharmaceuticals and treatments who when exposed to COVID-19 see a dramatic change in their daily circumstances.
So the 'at risk' group is far larger and far more influential than in other countries, hence the 'need' for a second national lockdown.
Starmer is more ineffectual than Corbyn IMHO. At least Corbyn would have been asking questions and not flip flopping.
-
I had this page on a tab unrefreshed with yesterday's data still on it.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.179714212.149017342.1601393343-1530162744.1586513640
hospitalisations 4367 yesterday to 4650 today. Daily admissions was 680. So net gain of 293, would mean 386 discharged?
-
@Rapido said in Coronavirus - UK:
I had this page on a tab unrefreshed with yesterday's data still on it.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.179714212.149017342.1601393343-1530162744.1586513640
hospitalisations 4367 yesterday to 4650 today. Daily admissions was 680. So net gain of 293, would mean 386 discharged?
In terms of managing NHS resources that is the most relevant of stats, but even at a daily increase of around 300, it can’t go on for long without some serious problems.
-
@Catogrande there's the nub.
How much of the comparatively innocuous second wave has been because hospitals haven't been overwhelmed as they were back in NH spring?
From a distance I can see why governments across Europe are starting to take action. The issue for me is how sporadic and confusing those measures have been with zero clarity around communicating the containment strategy. If indeed there is one.
-
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande there's the nub.
How much of the comparatively innocuous second wave has been because hospitals haven't been overwhelmed as they were back in NH spring?
From a distance I can see why governments across Europe are starting to take action. The issue for me is how sporadic and confusing those measures have been with zero clarity around communicating the containment strategy. If indeed there is one.
You’re not wrong about the lack of clarity. There is a rule for pubs in the severe lockdown areas that they cannot open or serve alcohol unless it is with “a substantial meal”. Cue a BBC article and subsequent HYS on what constitutes a substantial meal. The conclusion was that a pasty doesn’t count but a pasty and salad does. Really? My thoughts are order the pasty and salad and leave the rabbit food. It’s all gonna be out of date lettuce going brown at the edges anyway.
-
@Bones said in Coronavirus - UK:
So London goes into Tier 2. Searching high and low and seemingly no way to find out if we're London or not, although I guess the clue could be in "London Borough of Bromley". Postcode checker shows us as "Medium".
Yeah, I'm the same, although I'm pretty sure I'm viewed as South East.
Wasn't sure if this was a good / right thing or not, but then I saw Sadiq Kahn supports it and more, so I made my decision that it must be completely the wrong thing and catastrophic for London.
Coronavirus - UK