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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
To be honest now, I'm kind of just repeating myself and getting wound up. Don't take anything I'm saying personally, none of it is meant that way.
I totally understand as it's how I feel too. Take a chill pill or walk away from this thread? (I've thought of doing the latter too but I use a glass of wine instead. Or two
Btw I read the latest Te Punaha Matatini modelling from 23rd Sep that the NZ goverment are using as I hate political spin like you cannot believe.
It's very very light on the border/MIQ indeed, just a "filler" type assumption and "yeah we need to look at this in future". I don't think there is (or has been) a "real world" plan on lowering MIQ to a world with COVID. This is it tbh -
"Key Assumptions - Simulated outbreaks are seeded with an average of 1 case per day arriving at the border and entering the community. This approximately represents a situation where current tight border restrictions are relaxed, but strong border controls remain in place to limit the number of infectious travel-related cases entering the community Results are relatively insensitive to this assumption when 𝑅(effective) >1, but will be sensitive to the border settings and corresponding in flow of infected travellers for scenarios where 𝑅 (effective) <1.
Discussion - Future modelling work will focus on specific public health interventions in more detail, including how these interventions interact with health system and contact tracing system capacity, border controls, and the frequency at which more stringent interventions may be needed. When 𝑅(effective) <1, the health outcomes are more moderate, but do become sensitive to the particular choice of border restrictions. Future work will investigate the relationship between outcomes and border restrictions."
At your service ...
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I don't know if this got linked already, but is a very good article.
This one, plus the articles by Henry Cooke (also on stuff) have been really good.
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@rapido Good to see some real external scrutiny starting - good article that one
fwiw both the Covid Te Punaha Matitini modelling papers I've read say "This paper has not yet undergone formal peer review" which tbh I buy as Covid is a moving picture ... but would be good know how review/challenging they do go through given they're being used to support NZ government policy and public statements.
For example UK have a formal modelling committee which reviews models from four teams (I think) so there is a lot of internal cross-checking and questioning of assumptions used between those models.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@rapido Ireland would also have a decent number with anti-bodies too?
Not sure about the Rebublic of Ireland, but Northern Ireland within the UK reports "It is estimated that over 9 in 10 adults (16+), or 91.9% of the adult population would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 23rd August 2021 suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated"
There's a porous border between ROI/NI, no checks.
You're totally right to look at overall antibody rates in European countries now, not just Vax rates
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Another hotel added to the collection, but it doesn't appear to be easy finding options.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/new-miq-in-christchurch-after-rotorua-says-no
Someone else's reckons on modelling:
Meanwhile, today's case numbers are 9, all in Auckland, all linked.
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@bovidae Plus it's a bit specious to say we'd never get those rates because we would go into lockdown when the whole point is those are the predictions with zero controls.
I'm also not saying Hendy is right but who doesn't like a nerd bitch slapping contest?
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@bovidae Plus it's a bit specious to say we'd never get those rates because we would go into lockdown when the whole point is those are the predictions with zero controls.
I'm also not saying Hendy is right but who doesn't like a nerd bitch slapping contest?
I guess the point is his predictions seem alarmist when compared to what's actually happening in other countries.
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@bovidae said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm not saying that Hendy's model is correct but I was reading that he used NZ-specific data. Unless these so-called experts think that Singapore has a large, older Maori and Pasifika population too.
Was talking to an ED consultant mate here, and he has done is own estimates based on what is happening in AK. Reckons Hendy is not far off if things were let out of control
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@kirwan I can see the benefit of planning for worst case scenario, but does make it very alarmist and scare mongering
Give us a best case one too, I mean that will be the roadmap so many want, put a positive spin on something for a change
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan I can see the benefit of planning for worst case scenario, but does make it very alarmist and scare mongering
Give us a best case one too, I mean that will be the roadmap so many want, put a positive spin on something for a change
Got to give us some hope for better things. But there are a 5% group who are letting us all down. They know who they are
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@canefan people just want to know there is light at the end if the tunnel, and it ain't the maintenance guy doing work in the tunnel leaving you stranded with no clue how long you'll be or how far there us to go
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan people just want to know there is light at the end if the tunnel, and it ain't the maintenance guy doing work in the tunnel leaving you stranded with no clue how long you'll be or how far there us to go
You're telling me! I'm hanging out for L2 in 9 days for starters!
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan I can see the benefit of planning for worst case scenario, but does make it very alarmist and scare mongering
Give us a best case one too, I mean that will be the roadmap so many want, put a positive spin on something for a change
Got to give us some hope for better things. But there are a 5% group who are letting us all down. They know who they are
They're handfuls eh, real bad eggs. And not just Covid stuff, we're also talking disobedience, stealing, spitting, running away, throwing rocks, kicking stuff, defacing stuff, burning stuff, loitering and graffiti.
And that's just the stuff we know about.
Coronavirus - New Zealand