All Blacks 2021
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by all means, double down
we almost won that game.
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
this thread has really rammed home just how fucking arrogant we are on here
And i am not talking the usual NZ fan All Black Supremacy thing either
(and before the inevitable "pot kettle motherfucker" i absolutely include myself in here)
Even at it's base, this thread is scathing after a couple of lost games, one to a very late penalty (which i don't see as any different to winning by a late penalty really), one we were a marginal forward pass from winning, and one where the scoreboard was bad, but i doubt i was alone in thinking we would win at about the 3/4 mark. We're at peak "the ABs should win by 2 scores every test. And have better forwards and better backs than the opposition" which is never going to happen in professional rugby (aside from a couple of freak teams we have put out)
Then we have the posters who think they have already worked out how to beat a rush defense, and are basically saying "just do this you idiot! it's so obvious" like those who get paid to do this just haven't seen it. Or have identified the 2 things that need to change for the side to be completely fixed "it's so obvious!!"
Or those who have convinced themselves they know the inner workings of the AB set up, know what is happening, who is responsible for what, and why the people inside it are doing what they are doing. Or, most importantly, why people are being given a particular role.
That's before the 2nd wave of "have you played sport champ? cause i have, so listen to me" or "well, you haven't said anything i completely agree with in the last 2 pages (ignoring thread after thread after thread of evidence) so you are an apologist, or their mum, or whatever, posters who have come in red hot.
Don't get me wrong, it's entertaining reading. But lets not lose sight of the fact that we are nothing more than interested, but ignorant, spectators. Modern, elite professional rugby is almost a different sport to even the highest level that the vast majority of us played.
I'm not trying to change the tone, as i said, this is entertaining. But don't lose sight of the fact that none of us know a goddam thing.
Without talking myself up too much I’ve never claimed to
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
Or those who have convinced themselves they know the inner workings of the AB set up, know what is happening, who is responsible for what, and why the people inside it are doing what they are doing. Or, most importantly, why people are being given a particular role.
The issue with bad coaches in good teams is the rot is slow and it takes a long time to notice because the old systems from the good coaches (wink,wink Wayne Smith, Hansen...) are still in the player's minds but they eventually forget, the slide begins, the losses come and you forget how to win. South Africa had recently been there, experienced that with Coetzee and were pretty fortunate that they had a miracle (in Rassie) on speed dial.
I mentioned it when Foster was initially appointed. Human relations 101, it's even in a NZ written university text book; the highest predictor of positive future performance is past positive performance in a similar role. It's about 70% accurate, other predictors are not much more these 50%, or not much better than chance no matter what product and a recruiting firm would want to sell you (beware of their hype as they're selling their product).
The evidence points to the fact that Foster's past record as head coach of a professional rugby team is dire.
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
by all means, double down
we almost won that game.
Sounds like a Welsh fan, not an AB one.
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@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
Or those who have convinced themselves they know the inner workings of the AB set up, know what is happening, who is responsible for what, and why the people inside it are doing what they are doing. Or, most importantly, why people are being given a particular role.
The issue with bad coaches in good teams is the rot is slow and it takes a long time to notice because the old systems from the good coaches (wink,wink Wayne Smith, Hansen...) are still in the player's minds but they eventually forget, the slide begins, the losses come and you forget how to win. South Africa had recently been there, experienced that with Coetzee and were pretty fortunate that they had a miracle (in Rassie) on speed dial.
I mentioned it when Foster was initially appointed. Human relations 101, it's even in a NZ written university text book; the highest predictor of positive future performance is past positive performance in a similar recent role. It's about 70% accurate, other predictors are not much more these 50%, or not much better than chance no matter what product and a recruiting firm would want to sell you (beware of their hype as they're selling their product).
The evidence points to the fact that Foster's past record as head coach of a professional rugby team is dire.
Added one word only ... my qualification is that I'm dubious that club/SR level head coaching success translates directly to top international level, though it can do with the right person. A lot is about the coaching team though, so if Scott Robertson interviews for Head Coach and could bring a team like say Tony Brown and Joe Schmid to the table it would say a lot about him just to get those type of buy-ins
(I'm biased as if Scott Robertson wants but doesn't get the next AB gig - he might end up as Eddie's replacement which would be fascinating for the lolz, and the Fern will have a meltdown! Otherwise my money might be on Steve Borthwick over here as he was a long-term assistant coach for England, RFU connections, head coach of Leicester since 2020)
Personally I don't have a problem with AB's playing overseas and being selected from there btw, NZR do ... that's more structural and financial though? Some good examples of motivated younger (non-AB or AB-fringe) players who have succesfully continued to develop in Europe. Some stagnate too.
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@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
Or those who have convinced themselves they know the inner workings of the AB set up, know what is happening, who is responsible for what, and why the people inside it are doing what they are doing. Or, most importantly, why people are being given a particular role.
The issue with bad coaches in good teams is the rot is slow and it takes a long time to notice because the old systems from the good coaches (wink,wink Wayne Smith, Hansen...) are still in the player's minds but they eventually forget, the slide begins, the losses come and you forget how to win. South Africa had recently been there, experienced that with Coetzee and were pretty fortunate that they had a miracle (in Rassie) on speed dial.
I mentioned it when Foster was initially appointed. Human relations 101, it's even in a NZ written university text book; the highest predictor of positive future performance is past positive performance in a similar role. It's about 70% accurate, other predictors are not much more these 50%, or not much better than chance no matter what product and a recruiting firm would want to sell you (beware of their hype as they're selling their product).
The evidence points to the fact that Foster's past record as head coach of a professional rugby team is dire.
Can you point me towards that source (i.e., the academic study)?
I have a professional interest in reading it.
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this thread was more fun before you all scared off @NZbloke
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@kirwan said in All Blacks 2021:
@l_n_p we select ABs from overseas then the game is pretty much dead here. Will be a weaker version of Wales in the 80s.
Agreed and it's reality for NZR. It would be a disaster. It was more in reply to a comment on black-and-white thinking that's all
Fossie isn't the best, but the NZR selection process last round that annointed him seems the bigger issue imo ... obviously the elite coaching talent "out there" all have connections and talk - realised it was a closed shop. Every large organization starts to lower it's standards once it all becomes a bit chummy ... and here we today?
As an analogy - it's why many large companies prefer to promote from within up to a pretty senior level (say VP, SVP) yet the very top and innovative strategic roles (CEO, COO, maybe CFO too) are external hires far more often than not
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@old-samurai-jack said in All Blacks 2021:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
by all means, double down
we almost won that game.
Sounds like a Welsh fan, not an AB one.
1953 was awhile back boyo
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@frank said in All Blacks 2021:
@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
Ian Foster never coached overseas and he has walked into the All Black head coaching job.
Bloody good point mate.
Shit, just another good reason for me to hate Foster.The real clincher for me was discovering Fozzie is also a conservative Christian.
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This post is deleted!
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also this:
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@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
@frank said in All Blacks 2021:
@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
Ian Foster never coached overseas and he has walked into the All Black head coaching job.
Bloody good point mate.
Shit, just another good reason for me to hate Foster.The real clincher for me was discovering Fozzie is also a conservative Christian.
I don't begrudge people their beliefs mate.
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@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
@frank said in All Blacks 2021:
@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
Ian Foster never coached overseas and he has walked into the All Black head coaching job.
Bloody good point mate.
Shit, just another good reason for me to hate Foster.The real clincher for me was discovering Fozzie is also a conservative Christian.
Quite a few of the players are religious too, should we “hate” them too, or is your bigotry only directed at the coach?
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This post is deleted!
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@frank said in All Blacks 2021:
@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
@frank said in All Blacks 2021:
@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
Ian Foster never coached overseas and he has walked into the All Black head coaching job.
Bloody good point mate.
Shit, just another good reason for me to hate Foster.The real clincher for me was discovering Fozzie is also a conservative Christian.
I don't begrudge people their beliefs mate.
Sure, but Foster's a guy in an extremely high profile & important position, and his beliefs certainly aren't reflective of an evidence-based approach, which is imperative in any high performance sporting environment.
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@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2021:
this thread was more fun before you all scared off @NZbloke
You had a small part to play in that too.
