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  • taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugby
    replied to nzzp on last edited by taniwharugby
    #261

    @nzzp yeah the Auckland event alone is looking like being NZs highest weather event, and only behind the 2 EQs for any events in NZ

    Add in the inflationary pressures already out there in construction, shortage of tradies, and then throw a fucking Cyclone into the mix...already high property insurance costs in NZ are gonna go up, more, again...

    I expect at some point, the off-shore re-insurers will limit some of the coverage they offer in NZ (similar to parts of Aus where there is no cover for some flood events)

    Makes me wonder how people get on living in the US Mid-West / Tornado alley!

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  • mariner4lifeM Online
    mariner4lifeM Online
    mariner4life
    wrote on last edited by
    #262

    don't take this the wrong way but

    it's been raining here since before christmas. we've now had 2 sunny days in a row. Cheers Gab

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  • taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugby
    wrote on last edited by
    #263

    Stunning day here today, brilliant blue sky at moment.

    Nek minut, this cyclone sounds worse by the day...some predictions the worst storm to hit us this century.

    Need this high sitting over NZ now to man up and stay put forcing Gabrielle out into the pacific!

    nzzpN 1 Reply Last reply
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  • nzzpN Offline
    nzzpN Offline
    nzzp
    replied to taniwharugby on last edited by
    #264

    @taniwharugby said in Extreme Weather:

    some predictions the worst storm to hit us this century.

    The tracking seems to be most likely to be heading east of the coutnry - but slow moving. May still be a nightmare, but it isn't a direct hit thankfully. Media going nuts - but the reality is we still don't know.

    Crossed fingers it isn't bad ... but we're preparing anyway.

    Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Tracker | Cyclocane
    taniwharugbyT 1 Reply Last reply
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  • taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugby
    replied to nzzp on last edited by
    #265

    @nzzp yeah a couple of tracking models do see it being slightly further east than yesterday and wind speeds look to have dropped too when it gets to NZ.

    dogmeatD 1 Reply Last reply
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  • dogmeatD Offline
    dogmeatD Offline
    dogmeat
    replied to taniwharugby on last edited by
    #266

    @taniwharugby Met Service guy on radio within the last hour was very conservative about it dropping in intensity. said it might drop over the 36 hours but was also just as likely to intensify as it hits NZ.

    Does appear to be tracking more over BOP and East Cape but said winds of 90-120 knots can be expected up to 140km from epicentre and rain still in the order of a month's worth in 24 hours within that area. So effectively Northland, Auckland Coromandel BOP, Gisborne Hawkes Bay at risk.

    taniwharugbyT 1 Reply Last reply
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  • HigginsH Offline
    HigginsH Offline
    Higgins
    wrote on last edited by Higgins
    #267

    Our weather patterns traditionally move west to east but these tropical cyclones seem to go east to west a lot of the time, go figure that one out.

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  • taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugby
    replied to dogmeat on last edited by
    #268

    @dogmeat yeah we just wont really know until it hits, I expect they are also talking it up so as to not come under fire if it does hit us full force.

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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Machpants
    replied to taniwharugby on last edited by
    #269

    @taniwharugby said in Extreme Weather:

    Brynderwyns ain't gonna be open anytime soon

    IMG-20230131-WA0000.jpg

    Whilst not Brynderwins, is looking a fuck load worse today

    47b8d099-8cae-4879-9c21-d3099a4675a0-image.jpeg

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  • nzzpN Offline
    nzzpN Offline
    nzzp
    wrote on last edited by
    #270

    The latest models look like Gabrielle is probably tracking right over NZ.

    Could be ugly. Ffs, not what we bloody need

    M taniwharugbyT 2 Replies Last reply
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Machpants
    replied to nzzp on last edited by
    #271

    @nzzp said in Extreme Weather:

    The latest models look like Gabrielle is probably tracking right over NZ.

    Could be ugly. Ffs, not what we bloody need

    Yup Kaitaia here I come!

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  • taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugby
    replied to nzzp on last edited by taniwharugby
    #272

    @nzzp yeah seems to change path from cruising by the east coast to come right over us...definitely alot of worried people about...supposed to hit NOrfolk tomorrow, hopefully the expected drop to cat 2 by then happens and then keeps weakening...

    85d33b59-8e3b-4907-ba51-d455a06a00f6-image.png

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  • No QuarterN Online
    No QuarterN Online
    No Quarter
    wrote on last edited by
    #273

    Stay safe out there everyone, let's hope this just fizzles out and is a non event

    nzzpN 1 Reply Last reply
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  • nzzpN Offline
    nzzpN Offline
    nzzp
    replied to No Quarter on last edited by
    #274

    @No-Quarter said in Extreme Weather:

    Stay safe out there everyone, let's hope this just fizzles out and is a non event

    That's a very low probability likelihood unfortunately. Looking like it's going to the east of us, but will still be brutal

    taniwharugbyT 1 Reply Last reply
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  • taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugby
    replied to nzzp on last edited by
    #275

    @nzzp one of the trackers I am watching has the worst of the rain on the west side of the cyclone too.

    Looks like it will become an extratropical cyclone tonight, which means a wider path of weather

    Neave Interactive

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle 2023 | Zoom Earth

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle 2023 | Zoom Earth

    Satellite images, weather maps and tracks of Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle 2023, 6 - 12 February. Max wind speed 165km/h.

    a619e055-d52f-4cd4-85df-1d35cfe99598-image.png

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  • taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugby
    wrote on last edited by taniwharugby
    #276

    looks like Gabrielle likes the look of NZ and is looking to touch down....shes pretty wild here at moment.

    Anyone follow Matt Watson on IG, he's got a house right on the coast just north of the BOI entrance I think it is, he is posting some clips and looks pretty wild there too

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  • mariner4lifeM Online
    mariner4lifeM Online
    mariner4life
    wrote on last edited by
    #277

    Weird how NZ seems to get more cyclones than us these days

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  • nzzpN Offline
    nzzpN Offline
    nzzp
    wrote on last edited by
    #278

    Schools are starting to cancel attendance tomorrow. Good call.

    Superb Owl at home this year - not risking public transport in the teeth of a storm unfortunately. Going to be smoking up some moink balls - beef meatballs wrapped in bacon (moo + oink). My smoking area is pretty sheltered thankfully...

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  • taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugby
    wrote on last edited by taniwharugby
    #279

    Is quite odd, sky is fairly bright all things considered.

    Wind and rain picked up in last hour or 2, we have had no power for 2 hours now, 65mm in last 24 hours, 30mm in last 5 hours.

    she is a huge system

    f0e28b92-3f1d-44f2-86e8-5e364e58513f-image.png

    M 1 Reply Last reply
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  • CrucialC Offline
    CrucialC Offline
    Crucial
    wrote on last edited by
    #280

    This YouTube channel is a good place for detailed discussion and forecasting

    boobooB 1 Reply Last reply
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