Uber v Taxis

Hooroo

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="nzzp" data-cid="608305" data-time="1471918591">
<div>
People can only see the downside at the moment. Self drivers will potentially transform the cities we live in. Imagine - and this is not far fetched
 
- you roll out of bed in your rural paradise, shower, and climb into the car
- read books, do work, talk on phone, or catch some Z in the car
- get delivered to your office door. Car drives off to recharge somewhere
 
- picks you up from the pub after work and you sleep as you head home...
 
 
alternatively, you head outside in Auckland at 10pm, go to sleep, wake up in Wellington at 0700. 
 
Some people will be against it, but I can see enough being 'for' it that it will take off
</div>
</blockquote>
Well that sounds good, your audience you are describing is about 0.5% of population?
 
I too can see it happeneing but I think we are quite a few decades away. Even maybe 50 years?

MajorRage

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="nzzp" data-cid="608305" data-time="1471918591">
<div>
People can only see the downside at the moment. Self drivers will potentially transform the cities we live in. Imagine - and this is not far fetched
 
- you roll out of bed in your rural paradise, shower, and climb into the car
- read books, do work, talk on phone, or catch some Z in the car
- get delivered to your office door. Car drives off to recharge somewhere
 
- picks you up from the pub after work and you sleep as you head home...
 
 
alternatively, you head outside in Auckland at 10pm, go to sleep, wake up in Wellington at 0700. 
 
Some people will be against it, but I can see enough being 'for' it that it will take off
</div>
</blockquote>
 
Quite a few people here in HK already do that. But they have a driver to do it for them, which they pay a small relative wage. Electric cars are cheaper here, but most of the locals want their big alphard/vellfire luxury van. I don't really see how it's completely different either to a taxi or limousine service. Just that the manual element is gone.
 
The whole Auckland at 10pm, WEllington at 7am. Here's an alternative. Go to sleep in your own bed, get up at 5am, have a shower, kiss your wife/kids/hooker/whatever your fetish good bye, then pop to the airport and get a 45 min flight which has you much sharper as you weren't sleeping in a car overnight.
 
Self driving cars - will be a niche market only for a long long time. They aren't going to takeover for a long long time.

nzzp

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="MajorRage" data-cid="608315" data-time="1471920666">
<div>
Quite a few people here in HK already do that. But they have a driver to do it for them, which they pay a small relative wage. Electric cars are cheaper here, but most of the locals want their big alphard/vellfire luxury van. I don't really see how it's completely different either to a taxi or limousine service. Just that the manual element is gone.
 
The whole Auckland at 10pm, WEllington at 7am. Here's an alternative. Go to sleep in your own bed, get up at 5am, have a shower, kiss your wife/kids/hooker/whatever your fetish good bye, then pop to the airport and get a 45 min flight which has you much sharper as you weren't sleeping in a car overnight.
 
Self driving cars - will be a niche market only for a long long time. They aren't going to takeover for a long long time.
</div>
</blockquote>
 
1. How much is the car worth to you if you can spend half your commute doing productive work related stuff. Reviewing reports, writing reports, talking to people on the phone, doing accounts. If your house costs $500k less and is another hours commute each way, does it pay off? I'd bloody say so in Auckland
 
2. How much does a plane to Wellington cost: $80 bucks? Plus a taxi or parking - $80 in Auckland, $40 in Wellington. $200 bucks for a one way flight, and you don't have a car when you get there. Compared to what - mileage on an electric car at $20 perhaps? Now put two people in the car - remembering that cars don't have to be designed like normal any more - can have proper comfy chairs. See an example below in the latest Honda Odyssey
 
 
3. Niche market. The market will be anyone who has to commute. Which to be honest is most people. I'm working on a development at the moment - carparks are valued over $100k, and have been sold in central auckland for $150k. Tell me that there aren't people who want to save time and money using a self driving car to commute.
 
So I'm agreeing to disagree. Depending on the cost of the package, I can see widespread uptake of it
 
Example from a current Honda model - sit back, sip on a few craft beers/cocktails, watch some TV/download some internet, kick back and relax:
 
<img src="http://indianautosblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/2014-Honda-Odyssey-sliding-captain-seats.jpg" alt="2014-Honda-Odyssey-sliding-captain-seats">

Hooroo

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="nzzp" data-cid="608319" data-time="1471921861">
<div>
1. How much is the car worth to you if you can spend half your commute doing productive work related stuff. Reviewing reports, writing reports, talking to people on the phone, doing accounts. If your house costs $500k less and is another hours commute each way, does it pay off? I'd bloody say so in Auckland
 
2. How much does a plane to Wellington cost: $80 bucks? Plus a taxi or parking - $80 in Auckland, $40 in Wellington. $200 bucks for a one way flight, and you don't have a car when you get there. Compared to what - mileage on an electric car at $20 perhaps? Now put two people in the car - remembering that cars don't have to be designed like normal any more - can have proper comfy chairs. See an example below in the latest Honda Odyssey
 
 
3. Niche market. The market will be anyone who has to commute. Which to be honest is most people. I'm working on a development at the moment - carparks are valued over $100k, and have been sold in central auckland for $150k. Tell me that there aren't people who want to save time and money using a self driving car to commute.
 
So I'm agreeing to disagree. Depending on the cost of the package, I can see widespread uptake of it
 
Example from a current Honda model - sit back, sip on a few craft beers/cocktails, watch some TV/download some internet, kick back and relax:
 
<img src="http://indianautosblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/2014-Honda-Odyssey-sliding-captain-seats.jpg" alt="2014-Honda-Odyssey-sliding-captain-seats">
</div>
</blockquote>
I think MR is right, what you are describing is for the elite when it comes out. In time it will filter to the masses
 
This comment is funny to me
"Example from a current Honda model - sit back, sip on a few craft beers/cocktails, watch some TV/download some internet, kick back and relax"
Can you imagine 500 Tokoroa factory workers buying into this? Or the 10,000 in penrose in Auckland? I can't see it being within their price for a very long time

Milk

The concept is a bit scary, but I must say I am all for self driving cars. I despise other drivers. I get so angry when I see a car struggling to stay in their lane and when I pass them I see the the selfish prick driver is on their phone putting other people's live in danger. For every argument why self driving cars can't be trusted, I find many counter arguments driving their cars on any given trip.

nzzp

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Hooroo" data-cid="608320" data-time="1471922120">
<div>
I think MR is right, what you are describing is for the elite when it comes out. In time it will filter to the masses
 
This comment is funny to me
"Example from a current Honda model - sit back, sip on a few craft beers/cocktails, watch some TV/download some internet, kick back and relax"
Can you imagine 500 Tokoroa factory workers buying into this? Or the 10,000 in penrose in Auckland? I can't see it being within their price for a very long time
</div>
</blockquote>
 
Can I imagine those factory workers buying this? Not initially.

But then, they didn't buy cars with ABS initially either. Or airbags. CD players used to cost a few hundred bucks, too.
 
What we're dealing with is technology that plummets in price as it commodotises. I can only see this getting rolled out to more and more cars until it is unthinkable to have a car without it, and the fleet gradually changes over.

NTA

Difference between cars and planes: for the most part, cars have a defined and well-mapped path to destinations available, in two dimensions.
 
Planes, while highly automated with safeguards, have a lot more factors that affect them, and move in three dimensions.
 
Also, when a plane fucks up, dozens to hundreds die. When a car fucks up, maybe half a dozen people die at the most.
 
 
Once the self-driving thing kicks off in earnest, ownership of a car will be reduced because a car that isn't being used is a wasted asset. Tesla are already talking about supplying local fleets for high-density areas in a driverless Uber situation. The cars go charge when they need charging, but otherwise they're moving people from one destination to another.

Hooroo

I agree this will take hold,I just think you're unrealistic with the timeframe. I hope you're accurate though as I would love to hooch back while being driven everywhere.

nzzp

Also, this won't start with single occupancy passenger vehicles. I can see this starting with big trucks in outback Australia, and then percolating through to taxis, busses and vans and then onto private cars.
 
<a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='https://www.wired.com/2016/05/otto-retrofit-autonomous-self-driving-trucks/'>https://www.wired.com/2016/05/otto-retrofit-autonomous-self-driving-trucks/</a>
 
the money quote:
a new startup is developing a $30,000 kit that can make any truck built since 2013 autonomous.
 
Drivers are the single biggest cost for freight carrying. If an autonomous truck cost $200k more than a regular one, don't you think corporates would grab it with both hands?

nzzp

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Hooroo" data-cid="608325" data-time="1471922470">
<div>
I agree this will take hold,I just think you're unrealistic with the timeframe. I hope you're accurate though as I would love to hooch back while being driven everywhere.
</div>
</blockquote>
 
So, to be clear, I wouldn't be surprised if they are on the market and approved in 5-10 years. You're then talking years for it to percolate through, but I can see this literally transforming many aspects of our life. As well as putting bus, taxi and truck drivers out of jobs. The cost will sink past the wage floor, and that will be that.

MajorRage

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="nzzp" data-cid="608319" data-time="1471921861">
<div>
1. How much is the car worth to you if you can spend half your commute doing productive work related stuff. Reviewing reports, writing reports, talking to people on the phone, doing accounts. If your house costs $500k less and is another hours commute each way, does it pay off? I'd bloody say so in Auckland
 
2. How much does a plane to Wellington cost: $80 bucks? Plus a taxi or parking - $80 in Auckland, $40 in Wellington. $200 bucks for a one way flight, and you don't have a car when you get there. Compared to what - mileage on an electric car at $20 perhaps? Now put two people in the car - remembering that cars don't have to be designed like normal any more - can have proper comfy chairs. See an example below in the latest Honda Odyssey
 
 
3. Niche market. The market will be anyone who has to commute. Which to be honest is most people. I'm working on a development at the moment - carparks are valued over $100k, and have been sold in central auckland for $150k. Tell me that there aren't people who want to save time and money using a self driving car to commute.
 
So I'm agreeing to disagree. Depending on the cost of the package, I can see widespread uptake of it
 
Example from a current Honda model - sit back, sip on a few craft beers/cocktails, watch some TV/download some internet, kick back and relax:
</div>
</blockquote>
 
1. You can do all that now, for cheaper. People very rarely consider in the cost of depreciation on their vehicles vs using taxis/car services. Remember, you are not only trying to change people behaviour, you are trying to change psyche as well. when I leave work, I leave work. Like 99% of the population. It makes no difference to close to 100% of the workforce if you can do work on your commute or not. How many people do you see on trains/buses doing work?
 
2. Depreciation, technology updates, car maintenance, insurance. These things aren't free. But thats only the monetary aspect. Sitting in a luxury car overnight for 10 hours, car moving with traffic conditions, turning corners etc. vs your own bed, it's a complete no brainer!
 
3. The world biggest selling cars, are the cheaper cars low on tech. Because technology is expensive, and old technology is cheap. Yes, it will get cheaper as it gets commoditised, but come on - you think thats a 5-year window before you even see a small percentage in this model? No way.
 
And then the big thing - commuting is not moving towards the car model. The public transport model absolutely dominates it. The view that commuting is suddenly going to be much better because you don't have to drive yourself just totally ignores the real problem with commuting - the sheer volume of other commuters! Trains, buses, car-sharing, dedicated cycle tracks all can help reduce the sheer congestion on the roads. Self driving cars, simply don't.

NTA

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="MajorRage" data-cid="608333" data-time="1471923235">
<div>
And then the big thing - commuting is not moving towards the car model. The public transport model absolutely dominates it. The view that commuting is suddenly going to be much better because you don't have to drive yourself just totally ignores the real problem with commuting - the sheer volume of other commuters! Trains, buses, car-sharing, dedicated cycle tracks all can help reduce the sheer congestion on the roads. Self driving cars, simply don't.
</div>
</blockquote>
 
Not as efficiently as a bus. But they DO allow a ride-sharing scenario that is more efficient than current single-person commuters in vehicles.
 
Part of the service is accepted that the self-driving vehicle picks up others on the way. So you will have >1 person in each vehicle in the majority of cases. That means less cars. How many vehicle commuters car pool now? Not many, because they don't have people in the same convenient hours and location. Ride sharing doesn't care who you are - it gives you a mechanism.
 
Throw in automated commuter platforms like electric buses and the latest generation of driverless trains, and you're reducing congestion. No doubt.

NTA

Note: I think you're absolutely right in that the change in psyche is the biggest stumbling block. Particularly when it comes to vehicle ownership! I think 5-10 years is a touch optimistic.
 
But I've already got the youngsters at work using GoGet cars and Uber and all that other stuff. Its not a long path from there, and I reckon maybe 10 years is the low bar.

antipodean

The uptake will be first recognised in professional driving roles. Then it will be among the upper middle class who are early adopters, as seen with electric vehicles today. Critical mass will ensure the price comes down whilst insurance premiums skyrocket for those who want to drive themselves.
 
I'm a revhead who participates in motorsport and I'm looking forward to driverless cars.

MajorRage

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="NTA" data-cid="608334" data-time="1471923674">
<div>
Not as efficiently as a bus. But they DO allow a ride-sharing scenario that is more efficient than current single-person commuters in vehicles.
 
Part of the service is accepted that the self-driving vehicle picks up others on the way. So you will have >1 person in each vehicle in the majority of cases. That means less cars. How many vehicle commuters car pool now? Not many, because they don't have people in the same convenient hours and location. Ride sharing doesn't care who you are - it gives you a mechanism.
 
Throw in automated commuter platforms like electric buses and the latest generation of driverless trains, and you're reducing congestion. No doubt.
</div>
</blockquote>
 
So now your nice luxurious, great working environment where you can speak to people and work is in a shared space with somebody else? Thus all work etc cannot be confidential, and you can't really do phone calls at all? Ok, so there goes one argument.
 
People can carpool now ... but they don't. So why would they when instead of driving themselves, they have no driver. Why don't they carpool with taxis etc - have carpooling apps with taxi's taken off? 
 
Driverless trains are irrelevant to this discussions. Buses, less so, but I fail to see why people who won't use a bus now, will decide to start using a bus because it has no driver. There seems to be some sort of view that driverless vehicles are going to be much quicker and efficient. I just can't see it.

NTA

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="MajorRage" data-cid="608338" data-time="1471924067">
<div>
So now your nice luxurious, great working environment where you can speak to people and work is in a shared space with somebody else? Thus all work etc cannot be confidential, and you can't really do phone calls at all? Ok, so there goes one argument.
 
People can carpool now ... but they don't. So why would they when instead of driving themselves, they have no driver. Why don't they carpool with taxis etc - have carpooling apps with taxi's taken off? 
</div>
</blockquote>
 
Now you're taking nzzp's posts and my posts and using them against each other to put a global stop on the idea. Remember that not everyone is a drone who is going to use ride sharing and automation the same way. 
 
The reason people don't carpool now is convenience - THEY don't want to drive THEIR car out of the way to cater for someone else's hours or location. 
 
When the car is not owned by an individual, it changes the landscape. If someone requests confidentiality as an individual, the network will cater for that. If they have four people from the same workplace they won't need it.

MajorRage

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="antipodean" data-cid="608337" data-time="1471923962">
<div>
The uptake will be first recognised in professional driving roles. Then it will be among the upper middle class who are early adopters, as seen with electric vehicles today. Critical mass will ensure the price comes down whilst insurance premiums skyrocket for those who want to drive themselves.
 
 
</div>
</blockquote>
 
I think this will be very very key in how this evolves. Insurance of a driverless car vs insurance of a driven car. Especially when it comes to driverless vs driven car accidents. Driverless vs Driverless car accidents are going to have to be 0% in total in my view.

MajorRage

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="NTA" data-cid="608339" data-time="1471924407">
<div>
Now you're taking nzzp's posts and my posts and using them against each other to put a global stop on the idea. Remember that not everyone is a drone who is going to use ride sharing and automation the same way. 
 
The reason people don't carpool now is convenience - THEY don't want to drive THEIR car out of the way to cater for someone else's hours or location. 
 
When the car is not owned by an individual, it changes the landscape. If someone requests confidentiality as an individual, the network will cater for that. If they have four people from the same workplace they won't need it.
</div>
</blockquote>
 
Please don't interpret anything as trying to put a global stop on an argument - I'm just trying to explain my point of view, and will counter arguments from various posts to do so. I'm enjoying the discussion, so lets not go all silly and start talking about straw-man etc etc.
 
When the car is not owned by an individual, it is no different to taking a taxi, or using a taxi-sharing app. And has the take up on these been so signficant that we can really expect driverless cars to be such a game changer?

nzzp

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="MajorRage" data-cid="608343" data-time="1471924771">Please don't interpret anything as trying to put a global stop on an argument - I'm just trying to explain my point of view, and will counter arguments from various posts to do so. I'm enjoying the discussion, so lets not go all silly and start talking about straw-man etc etc. 
When the car is not owned by an individual, it is no different to taking a taxi, or using a taxi-sharing app. And has the take up on these been so signficant that we can really expect driverless cars to be such a game changer?</blockquote>
 
When the cost of taking a driverless Uber is less than the cost of owning a car then yes absolutely. 
Even now Uber know that lower costs induce demand. I use uber for trips because it is cheap. 
Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

NTA

Fair point.
 
I didn't even know taxi-sharing was a thing. The problem remains that taxis are expensive, because taxi plates are expensive, and paying drivers is expensive. The other problem is that taxis are unreliable and have human limitations.
 
Driverless cars don't suffer that. Electric have the need to recharge (automated in the next couple of years - perhaps wirelessly), and a service window (also can be automated for the most part). Otherwise, they're on the road.
 
That part goes back to nzzp's central point around cost: nothing makes money sitting still. Cars sit still a lot.

The Silver Fern

Uber v Taxis