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@voodoo said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@NTA EV's, AV's and ride sharing / ownership. We have spent a bit of time trying tp.figure out how that all plays out and it's nothing short of a minefieldid you're trying to figure out where to put your money
Especially in a policy vacuum!
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@NTA said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
I'd like to see 150%+ renewables deployed on the NEM over the long term. With a small amount of grid-level firming storage, and the excess funnelled into hydrogen production, you can help meet demand and diversify into another fuel source.
That's not enough when you look at the capacity factor. It takes an enormous amount of intermittent generation to provide dependable power to the grid. And the more you add, the more expensive it becomes.
2pm in Germany and look at the difference:
Less than 30% of installed wind capacity, less than 17% of solar, 90% of nuclear...
Compare it to France which hasn't been spending $50 billion dollarydoos each year for the last five years on energy transformation like Germany has on Energiewende.
Der Spiegel cites a recent estimate that it would cost Germany “€3.4 trillion ($3.8 trillion),” or seven times more than it spent from 2000 to 2025, to increase solar and wind three to five-fold by 2050.
Between 2000 and 2019, Germany grew renewables from 7% to 35% of its electricity. And as much of Germany's renewable electricity comes from biomass, which scientists view as polluting and environmentally degrading, as from solar. - Forbes
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@Winger said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@voodoo said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@Winger I love the way you deniers say on 1 hand, " look at the economic bastardry of renewables! The handouts! The rising bills! The grants being paid to corrupt scientists". And on the other you say, "what Government would call out climate change, there is too much money in it!"
It's lunacy
And the way that anyone who believes the myriad of scientists who have put their name to the science of climate and our impact on it, is a "believer in a religion!". Yet you get to believe a much smaller group because you have this wonderful ability to "think for yourself "
It's just fucking absurd.
But even if you choose to ignore the avalanche of science around this, what I'll never understand is why you would not be seeeking to mitigate the effects of the changing climate. Even if you're 100% convinced that we don't cause it, I cannot understand why you'd oppose science finding a way to limit/slow it, and ultimately live with it.
Because make no mistake, we cannot live easily with the sort of temperature rises and quantity/impact of events that will come with our current trajectory.
Do you believe cows farting etc is a major issue. Or not?
And tell me in simple terms how a very small increase in CO2 (a so called minor greenhouse gas anyway) is going to cause so much damage that we must collectively send trillions to an overseas fund that isn't audited. Esp when CO2 concentration have been MUCH higher in the past anyway. Why didn't it turn the earth in a fireball back then
But TBH don't bother. You will link to some site without even considering whether it makes any sense or not. You just trust YOUR experts. And the corrupt fake news media
Quick question @Winger when was it that CO2 concentrations were higher than now?
Also, I agree entirely with your suspicion about paying into an amorphous fund. Is there any evidence that these funds have actually produced anything of value, like @jegga's C02 eating bacteria?
Won't got into your other points.
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@NTA said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@Winger said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
Esp when CO2 concentration have been MUCH higher in the past anyway.
How high was it?
When?
What was the state of human civilisation at that point? Hunter-gatherers? Nomadic or settled?I did a booboo.
Read the thread.
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As for livestock issues:
I was at a lunch the other day and Judith Collins and Mark Mitchel were speakers. They got asked about livestock emissions and had an interesting answer about how difficult it would be to come up with a workable scheme internationally as they are basing these things on population. NZ has just under 5m people but with exports feeds over 45m (possibly up to 65m). Who pays for that?Thought it was QI.
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@Snowy said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
As for livestock issues:
I was at a lunch the other day and Judith Collins and Mark Mitchel were speakers. They got asked about livestock emissions and had an interesting answer about how difficult it would be to come up with a workable scheme internationally as they are basing these things on population. NZ has just under 5m people but with exports feeds over 45m (possibly up to 65m). Who pays for that?Thought it was QI.
Who pays for that? Will its a good one to try and destroy farmers. So someone can buy up this land at a reduced rate
In the meantime the main CO2 "polluters" are telling the climate change hand over your money West to get lost.
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@antipodean said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
Compare it to France which hasn't been spending $50 billion dollarydoos each year for the last five years on energy transformation like Germany has on Energiewende.
France's nuclear fleet is also rusting away, so they'll need to address something like a transition, and soon.
Smarter people than me are pointing to 200% renewables being far better than 100% renewables. People talk about the cost - and I'd also point out (again) that Germany started decades ago in renewables so isn't comparable - but what is the alternative?
Building nuclear is ten years away for Australia (political football aside). Judging from many high profile builds around the world, pretty much anyone breaking ground today won't get one done safely inside a decade.
SMR is probably further, though I wish it wasn't.
Nuclear supporters like Shellenberger keep saying it is the answer, and from an engineering standpoint it ticks all the boxes except responsiveness, where renewables and storage kick in on demand. So the engineers are generally happy.
But the taxpayer will cop it in the neck. We've not had to pay for the external costs of fossil fuels, which is why FF are "cheap" historically in Australia.
To replace 50% of capacity in the NEM would need around 25GW of nuclear. 🤔 Though it could be argued we only have such a big coal fleet because they're not very reliable.
Hinkley Point C is estimated to cost around 20B pounds - so is a complete fuckup of project management @ AUD$12B/GW.
At the upper end, that means $300B build cost for the NEM - doesn't include WA or NT. If we don't fuck up the builds, it could be half that, before operating costs, for EPR.
I personally think it will tend toward (or over) the upper end, having to establish an industry here from scratch. But fuck, the Libs will subsidize anything if their back gets scratched by mining.
What is the likelihood of that happening, given its political poison and also requires vast quantities of water to operate?
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@NTA said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@antipodean said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
Compare it to France which hasn't been spending $50 billion dollarydoos each year for the last five years on energy transformation like Germany has on Energiewende.
France's nuclear fleet is also rusting away, so they'll need to address something like a transition, and soon.
Smarter people than me are pointing to 200% renewables being far better than 100% renewables. People talk about the cost - and I'd also point out (again) that Germany started decades ago in renewables so isn't comparable - but what is the alternative?
200% is better than 100% because of the capacity factor. It's still not enough.
The big part of Germany's Energiewende is yet to come. Replacing 1000MW (for argument's sake) is cheaper with renewables, but then you have to add the capacity factor and network upgrades to that cost. One only has to look at the predicted cost of Energiewende by 2025 is over €520 billion (or ~780 billion dollarydoos) because to stitch all this renewable together to have a functioning grid with dependable power requires 7,700 new kilometers of transmission lines. Of that only 8% have been built.
Building nuclear is ten years away for Australia (political football aside). Judging from many high profile builds around the world, pretty much anyone breaking ground today won't get one done safely inside a decade.
The longer we vacillate, the longer it will take.
SMR is probably further, though I wish it wasn't.
Nuclear supporters like Shellenberger keep saying it is the answer, and from an engineering standpoint it ticks all the boxes except responsiveness, where renewables and storage kick in on demand. So the engineers are generally happy.
Works perfectly well everywhere else and somehow they've managed to cope with spinning coal.
But the taxpayer will cop it in the neck. We've not had to pay for the external costs of fossil fuels, which is why FF are "cheap" historically in Australia.
The taxpayer will cop it regardless.
To replace 50% of capacity in the NEM would need around 25GW of nuclear. 🤔 Though it could be argued we only have such a big coal fleet because they're not very reliable.
Hinkley Point C is estimated to cost around 20B pounds - so is a complete fuckup of project management @ AUD$12B/GW.
At the upper end, that means $300B build cost for the NEM - doesn't include WA or NT. If we don't fuck up the builds, it could be half that, before operating costs, for EPR.
I personally think it will tend toward (or over) the upper end, having to establish an industry here from scratch. But fuck, the Libs will subsidize anything if their back gets scratched by mining.
If you're prepared to state that Germany gets a pass because it was an early adopter and costs have come down, the same holds true for nuclear.
20GW of reliable safe climate friendly power could be had in this country at Barakah prices for $100 billion.
What is the likelihood of that happening, given its political poison and also requires vast quantities of water to operate?
We're an island.
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@antipodean said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
20GW of reliable safe climate friendly power could be had in this country at Barakah prices for $100 billion.
Barakah? That is utter fantasy. Not going to get UAE labour prices here, and there is also the small matter of "safe"
Nuclear establishment costs have NOT come down despite being a technology established 60 years ago.
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@antipodean said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
We're an island.
Either you situate nuclear at existing coal sites - which are basically inland and therefore require pipeline build - which might work as you can put desal online nearby.
Or you build nuclear on the shoreline (desperately unpopular move) and upgrade transmission to suit.
More cost.
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@voodoo said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@Winger I love the way you deniers say on 1 hand, " look at the economic bastardry of renewables! The handouts! The rising bills! The grants being paid to corrupt scientists". And on the other you say, "what Government would call out climate change, there is too much money in it!"
It's lunacy
And the way that anyone who believes the myriad of scientists who have put their name to the science of climate and our impact on it, is a "believer in a religion!". Yet you get to believe a much smaller group because you have this wonderful ability to "think for yourself "
It's just fucking absurd.
But even if you choose to ignore the avalanche of science around this, what I'll never understand is why you would not be seeking to mitigate the effects of the changing climate. Even if you're 100% convinced that we don't cause it, I cannot understand why you'd oppose science finding a way to limit/slow it, and ultimately live with it.
Because make no mistake, we cannot live easily with the sort of temperature rises and quantity/impact of events that will come with our current trajectory.
And this sums up the issues I have, such emotive language as 'avalanche of science', 'myriad of scientists'
The article I linked to completely debunks the theory that the science is settled or other such statements. It certainly doesnt disprove the theories of the IPCC, but it certainly shows that the science is not settled and that the IPCC is pretty flawed in its approach, they do deserve some sympathy as predictive models are just not easy in this area.
As for the posters claiming they are doing somehitng personally.... they are kidding themselves, they are doing fuck all. They are nowhere even remotely close to living a zero carbon life. They are nowhere near doing what we are lectured and told we have to do.
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@NTA said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@antipodean said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
20GW of reliable safe climate friendly power could be had in this country at Barakah prices for $100 billion.
Barakah? That is utter fantasy. Not going to get UAE labour prices here, and there is also the small matter of "safe"
You may want to read the article, just saying.
Nuclear establishment costs have NOT come down despite being a technology established 60 years ago.
Because of the ridiculous regulatory burden and sovereign risk. At any point a change in government or policy can mothball billions in capital cost.
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@NTA said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@antipodean said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
We're an island.
Either you situate nuclear at existing coal sites - which are basically inland and therefore require pipeline build - which might work as you can put desal online nearby.
Or you build nuclear on the shoreline (desperately unpopular move) and upgrade transmission to suit.
More cost.
You put them on the coast, they don't have to be near the existing desal plants (which they can run), but it would be nice. The UHV lines would still be orders of magnitude cheaper than wiring the disparate sources of windfarms and solar installations across the country.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback oh dear Baron, you really are getting a bit sensitive these days. I had no idea that "avalanche" or "myriad" were such emotive words for you! I shall try to tone down my religious zealotry, though it is hard when the climate gods speak to loudly to me.
In the interim, if you or @Winger could have a go at explaining to me how renewables are at the same time killing our economy and also a financial boon for the Government, I'd be ever so grateful.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
They are nowhere even remotely close to living a zero carbon life.
Didn't see anyone say that? Who was it? I just said solar made economic sense. Nothing hypocritical about that.
Something is still better than nothing also.
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@Snowy said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
They are nowhere even remotely close to living a zero carbon life.
Didn't see anyone say that? Who was it? I just said solar made economic sense. Nothing hypocritical about that.
Something is still better than nothing also.
Not in the Denierverse. It's called "Gore's Law".
And when you point out what a pile of straw man shit they're holding up, they'll accuse you of the same thing.
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@NTA said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@Snowy said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
They are nowhere even remotely close to living a zero carbon life.
Didn't see anyone say that? Who was it? I just said solar made economic sense. Nothing hypocritical about that.
Something is still better than nothing also.
Not in the Denierverse. It's called "Gore's Law".
And when you point out what a pile of straw man shit they're holding up, they'll accuse you of the same thing.
I definitely saw you make that statement @Snowy, no backtracking now. I believe it was in response to @NTA claiming that 110% of scientists worldwide agreed with him on the science.
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