Coronavirus - Overall
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@gt12 said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so, what does this mean? There is no way these restrictions can last 400 days. That's insane to even consider.
And, on top of that, they may not even do anything? So what's the plan? Delay and hope a solution comes later? Are they just buying time to the detriment of a hell of a lot?
remember that this is just what the models predict.
I model stuff professionally (well, I used to). All models are wrong, some models are useful. These models can struggle to accurately represent the really complicated actual behaviour of interactions. Dollars to donuts, this is a model that just assumes uncontrolled spread once the restrictions get lifted.
What these don't show is the effect of testing, of people knowing they have had the disease and become largely immune, of being able to maintain some bigger bubbles (like construction sites), all with the intent of reducing the spread of the disease until a vaccine/cure becomes available.
So, yes, if you don't change the underlying assumptions then this will continue to spit out catastrophic outcomes. I'm way more optimistic than that, and suspect that societal behaviour changes will modify the way that this spreads in our communities.
Kind of like HIV. Totally changed sexual habits - normalised condom use, disclosure to partners, STI testing, you name it.
That's a good point, but didn't some of the earlier models also predict HIV to die out in a bell shape curve?
Right now, I'm waiting pretty anxiously to find out whether people who have had it don't get it again (and whether it can easily mutate to start again) as most of our ideas about return to normal (quickly) assume that once you've had it, you're immune to further infection. Has that been shown yet? I hope so)
Best guess is that it's like many viruses, each season there can be a new strain and no immunity for that. But if anyone got it they should be safe for six months plus.
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@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean England? Oz? (I bloody well hope not) NZ?
St Kilda (Melbourne) apparently.
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@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Don't know whether this has already been posted (can't keep up with you lot).
More numbers.
East Coast of US seems entirely red!
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so, what does this mean? There is no way these restrictions can last 400 days. That's insane to even consider.
And, on top of that, they may not even do anything? So what's the plan? Delay and hope a solution comes later? Are they just buying time to the detriment of a hell of a lot?
remember that this is just what the models predict.
I model stuff professionally (well, I used to). All models are wrong, some models are useful. These models can struggle to accurately represent the really complicated actual behaviour of interactions. Dollars to donuts, this is a model that just assumes uncontrolled spread once the restrictions get lifted.
What these don't show is the effect of testing, of people knowing they have had the disease and become largely immune, of being able to maintain some bigger bubbles (like construction sites), all with the intent of reducing the spread of the disease until a vaccine/cure becomes available.
So, yes, if you don't change the underlying assumptions then this will continue to spit out catastrophic outcomes. I'm way more optimistic than that, and suspect that societal behaviour changes will modify the way that this spreads in our communities.
Kind of like HIV. Totally changed sexual habits - normalised condom use, disclosure to partners, STI testing, you name it.
I'd say the critical action point for most countries is to try and source as many ventilators as poss and convert space to ICU wards. I don't think full lockdown is sustainable for 18 months. Therefore, once ICU/ventilalor numbers sufficient (in UK that means 5k being built up to 30k, and probably somewhat more), starting to relax things a little, and using a acceptable infection rate get going on herd immunity.
In NZ, one alternative might be to lockdown for long enough to extinguish any existing cases and then to run with all but closed borders, subject to testing of everyone enterring and quarantine for any who test positive.
Sounds fairly unpopular, too?!
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean England? Oz? (I bloody well hope not) NZ?
St Kilda (Melbourne) apparently.
Just got off the line with my sister in Melbourne. Aussie is fucked, she would love to get on a flight and bring the family home. She has no faith in the government doing what needs to be done, and being in the medical profession she is acutely aware of the ramifications if Australia don't start flattening the curve; all of the Italian immigrants will feel like they are back in the old country because that's the way the curve is tracking
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Fucking deadset, these fluffybunnies...
The PM comes on the TV, says the social distancing thing is working, keep it up and we will stay at this level...
And so Melbournians fuck off instantly to their shit UK-like beaches
I swear to god you fuckers I hope you lose your AFL team
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so, what does this mean? There is no way these restrictions can last 400 days. That's insane to even consider.
And, on top of that, they may not even do anything? So what's the plan? Delay and hope a solution comes later? Are they just buying time to the detriment of a hell of a lot?
remember that this is just what the models predict.
I model stuff professionally (well, I used to). All models are wrong, some models are useful. These models can struggle to accurately represent the really complicated actual behaviour of interactions. Dollars to donuts, this is a model that just assumes uncontrolled spread once the restrictions get lifted.
What these don't show is the effect of testing, of people knowing they have had the disease and become largely immune, of being able to maintain some bigger bubbles (like construction sites), all with the intent of reducing the spread of the disease until a vaccine/cure becomes available.
So, yes, if you don't change the underlying assumptions then this will continue to spit out catastrophic outcomes. I'm way more optimistic than that, and suspect that societal behaviour changes will modify the way that this spreads in our communities.
Kind of like HIV. Totally changed sexual habits - normalised condom use, disclosure to partners, STI testing, you name it.
I'd say the critical action point for most countries is to try and source as many ventilators as poss and convert space to ICU wards. I don't think full lockdown is sustainable for 18 months. Therefore, once ICU/ventilalor numbers sufficient (in UK that means 5k being built up to 30k, and probably somewhat more), starting to relax things a little, and using a acceptable infection rate get going on herd immunity.
In NZ, one alternative might be to lockdown for long enough to extinguish any existing cases and then to run with all but closed borders, subject to testing of everyone enterring and quarantine for any who test positive.
Sounds fairly unpopular, too?!
That sounds retarded
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@mariner4life I didn't see beaches like this in Melbourne.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Bones looks nice. What's the water temp?
And for that matter the ambient temperature?
Argh think I prefer the moody and pessimistic you
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@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Bones looks nice. What's the water temp?
And for that matter the ambient temperature?
Argh think I prefer the moody and pessimistic you
That's simply not true
To the hawt thread?
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Bones looks nice. What's the water temp?
And for that matter the ambient temperature?
Argh think I prefer the moody and pessimistic you
That's simply not true
To the hawt thread?
Only way you will snap out of it.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Bones looks nice. What's the water temp?
And for that matter the ambient temperature?
That's more towards those blokes that live proper southwest...I'll leave it to them.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so, what does this mean? There is no way these restrictions can last 400 days. That's insane to even consider.
And, on top of that, they may not even do anything? So what's the plan? Delay and hope a solution comes later? Are they just buying time to the detriment of a hell of a lot?
remember that this is just what the models predict.
I model stuff professionally (well, I used to). All models are wrong, some models are useful. These models can struggle to accurately represent the really complicated actual behaviour of interactions. Dollars to donuts, this is a model that just assumes uncontrolled spread once the restrictions get lifted.
What these don't show is the effect of testing, of people knowing they have had the disease and become largely immune, of being able to maintain some bigger bubbles (like construction sites), all with the intent of reducing the spread of the disease until a vaccine/cure becomes available.
So, yes, if you don't change the underlying assumptions then this will continue to spit out catastrophic outcomes. I'm way more optimistic than that, and suspect that societal behaviour changes will modify the way that this spreads in our communities.
Kind of like HIV. Totally changed sexual habits - normalised condom use, disclosure to partners, STI testing, you name it.
I'd say the critical action point for most countries is to try and source as many ventilators as poss and convert space to ICU wards. I don't think full lockdown is sustainable for 18 months. Therefore, once ICU/ventilalor numbers sufficient (in UK that means 5k being built up to 30k, and probably somewhat more), starting to relax things a little, and using a acceptable infection rate get going on herd immunity.
In NZ, one alternative might be to lockdown for long enough to extinguish any existing cases and then to run with all but closed borders, subject to testing of everyone enterring and quarantine for any who test positive.
Sounds fairly unpopular, too?!
That sounds retarded
Every viable choice SOUNDS retarded. It's a case of the least bad option.