Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback couldn't like your post more. Your post about your employees has been circling in my head, and I'm getting tired of the likes of Jacinda and Trudeau talking about worring about the economy later.
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@Kirwan @Baron-Silas-Greenback - I see no evidence that the government isn't incredibly concerned about the economy. They're spending billions to support it.
I didn't think that the article that so triggered the Baron said anything other than common sense. He starts by saying that the results of the lockdown have been really encouraging but then goes on (presumably prompted by the journalist) to talk of other scenario's. Like if it flares up again, if people don't do what they're told. Again basic common sense - the worst affected (per head) nation on earth, has had fewer than 150K cases. Even if you said they had 10 times as many as reported that's still only 2.5% of their overall population. It stands to reason that you have to remain vigilant after the initial outbreak. Right up until a vaccine.
It's why pandemic modelling always has successive waves of cases.
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@Virgil
Level 3 Restrict
Heightened risk that disease is not contained.
Risk assessment
Community transmission occurring OR
Multiple clusters break out.
Range of measures
These can all be applied locally or nationally:
travel in areas with clusters or community transmission limited
affected educational facilities closed
mass gatherings cancelled
public venues closed (eg libraries, museums, cinemas, food courts, gyms, pools, amusement parks)
alternative ways of working required and some non-essential businesses should close
non face-to-face primary care consultations
non acute (elective) services and procedures in hospitals deferred and healthcare staff reprioritised.My guess as of today is country moves to Lvl 3 but anywhere that looks like it may have an incipient outbreak goes back to lvl 4. Wage subsidy continues. Hospo industry still shut down. Companies encouraged to have as many as possible work from home and have to record everyone on their premises even for a couple of minutes (couriers excepted) Schools remain closed for another two weeks Travel between regions banned except for essential.... whatever that means
I think the key to a relaxation is a better form of contact tracing
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I think the key to a relaxation is a better form of contact tracing
yes, and potential eradication in the community.
If we eradicate in the community, then a faster turnaround test and contact tracing lets people get back towards normality. Limit socialisation, but record it - basically you'd be expected to (through and App?) idenitfy everyone you have had close contact with in the past X days.
We still seem to be largely flying blind though, and don't have good answers to a heap of questions.
- How long after you get infected do symptoms start?
- Can you infect people before symptoms start, and what's the infection risks at different stages of the disease?
- Can you have C19, be asymptomatic and still transmit the disease?
As we understand this better (and I"m sure it's close), the shape of a post-L4 starts to clarify. If people are only an infection risk for 48 hours before symptoms show, then that's a whole different risk level to being 7 days infectious.
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan Truedeau is irrelevant for me but is that what Jacinda has said? That they will worry about it later, despite pumping money back into business to help them stay afloat where possible?
Worry about it later is a direct Trudeau quote. Jacinda has said that she will not put the economy before peoples lives, admittedly early in the crisis.
IMO, that's in the same boat, as we routinely put the ecomomy before people's lives. We have a rationed health system (we don't provide life saving drugs to some people if it's too expensive, for example).
I just get concerned when I hear people like Dr Bloomfield talk about eradicating the virus. At what cost?
At the moment if we get just two suicides for a hopeless outlook thanks to job losses, then we have double the death rate of the virus. I want to know they have a line in the sand where, as Antipodean keeps stating, the cure is worse than the disease.
I'm not seeing it, I see a pretty dogmatic, almost blinkered approach at the moment. As if cratering the economy can be fixed later.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan Truedeau is irrelevant for me but is that what Jacinda has said? That they will worry about it later, despite pumping money back into business to help them stay afloat where possible?
Worry about it later is a direct Trudeau quote. Jacinda has said that she will not put the economy before peoples lives, admittedly early in the crisis.
IMO, that's in the same boat, as we routinely put the ecomomy before people's lives. We have a rationed health system (we don't provide life saving drugs to some people if it's too expensive, for example).
I just get concerned when I hear people like Dr Bloomfield talk about eradicating the virus. At what cost?
At the moment if we get just two suicides for a hopeless outlook thanks to job losses, then we have double the death rate of the virus. I want to know they have a line in the sand where, as Antipodean keeps stating, the cure is worse than the disease.
I'm not seeing it, I see a pretty dogmatic, almost blinkered approach at the moment. As if cratering the economy can be fixed later.
I don't have that downbeat look to this. That is part of what we will go through and not a reason to change anything in my view. People are going to die and some will kill themselves and that is a sad outcome but not one that I think we need to be doing anything different because.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm not seeing it, I see a pretty dogmatic, almost blinkered approach at the moment. As if cratering the economy can be fixed later.
I'm not convinced that the Govt will really understand how the economy works. There's some real risks with all governments wanting to borrow at the same time to stimulate. I can't see a way for the economy to really restart by increasing taxes and increased wages, combined with stimulus , but I suspect that's the route that we'll see taken.
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@Kirwan We also put peoples lives ahead of the economy every single day of the year - terminal cancer patients Alzheimer sufferers. The list is a very long one and as a society it is what we expect our governments to do.
I've said before - it is not a binary choice - the trick is to get the balance right, but that's an impossible task. At the moment with caveats I think the govt is doing OK.
The argument we've only had x cases or y deaths doesn't really wash for me - exactly. It's working.
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@dogmeat
Everyone knows and says it isn't a binary choice, but the govt isn't acting much like that. People love saying that the virus transmits exponentially, but so does an economic collapse. And we are about to experience one. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat
Everyone knows and says it isn't a binary choice, but the govt isn't acting much like that. People love saying that the virus transmits exponentially, but so does an economic collapse. And we are about to experience one.Auckland Council have suspended almost all of their works.https://ourauckland.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/articles/news/2020/04/auckland-council-managing-the-financial-cost-of-covid-19/
Folk in councils seem to be getting really mixed messages about expanding their workload to stimulate the economy and keep people employed, and yet being told to stop spending money.
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan Truedeau is irrelevant for me but is that what Jacinda has said? That they will worry about it later, despite pumping money back into business to help them stay afloat where possible?
Worry about it later is a direct Trudeau quote. Jacinda has said that she will not put the economy before peoples lives, admittedly early in the crisis.
IMO, that's in the same boat, as we routinely put the ecomomy before people's lives. We have a rationed health system (we don't provide life saving drugs to some people if it's too expensive, for example).
I just get concerned when I hear people like Dr Bloomfield talk about eradicating the virus. At what cost?
At the moment if we get just two suicides for a hopeless outlook thanks to job losses, then we have double the death rate of the virus. I want to know they have a line in the sand where, as Antipodean keeps stating, the cure is worse than the disease.
I'm not seeing it, I see a pretty dogmatic, almost blinkered approach at the moment. As if cratering the economy can be fixed later.
I don't have that downbeat look to this. That is part of what we will go through and not a reason to change anything in my view. People are going to die and some will kill themselves and that is a sad outcome but not one that I think we need to be doing anything different because.
Give yourself time as this economic collapse starts blooming outwards and starts badly effecting people you know.
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@dogmeat Don't we also put the economy ahead of lives every single year as well. Do we put enough $ into DHB's every year so that they can save everyone possible? Do we fund every drug available to extend peoples lives/give them their lives back?
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp have AC stopped sending out rates notices as well?
oh, my sides
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback I agree we are in for a very rough ride economically for the next 3-5 years. The hope is we can contain it to mid 70's scale rather than mid 30's. Because successive governments have managed the economy prudently I am optimistic that we can. We are also structurally better equipped than in either the 70's or 30's.
Part of the issue is the majority of NZers haven't experienced large unemployment before. Last time was 91?
I am very concerned. However I don't see many other countries who are managing the crisis effectively. Taiwan, Sth Korea. Singapore - maybe? Australia seem to be doing well but that seems happy chance more than policy. Almost every country that has been held up as the poster child of minimal intervention has gradually moved into the mire. On that basis I am prepared to accept the short sharp shock treatment, but it is a gamble. That's why the fucking lockdown breakers - both individuals and companies really fuck me off