-
@no-quarter TDS without a doubt. Was only a few months ago they were flying missiles over Japan. If a peace can be achieves then this also could prevent a refugee issue. It's not perfect but a better outcome than war. Also considering it's Trump you can almost bet the terms will be stringent.
-
I guess North Korea is very roughly a two stage process... from a wider point of view having them nuclear free is the main/most significant goal, which yesterday's summit with Trump and the last few months seem to be helping out with significantly. Fingers crossed.
Then there's the harder/more regionalised issue of the state of the nation of North Korea, and how that all unravels/reforms/artillery pointed at Seoul/closing the labour camps etc... a much longer and more difficult game.
A couple of random thoughts...
- I wonder how the state media in NK will report on this all. And what risks Kim Jong Un might be taking domestically...
- A lot of commentary about the symbolism of the two flags being close together yesterday, which in my view is just par for the course for that sort of summit. The one I've seen less commentary on is the symbolism of the plane that he landed on. China are often the relatively silent partner in all this, but as always I'm sure there's a lot going on behind the scenes.
Good luck to them all.
-
@majorrage said in North Korea:
It's interesting how this plays out.
Regardless of how you view this whole thing, expecting the North to agree to unilaterally give up all nuclear weapons seems completely unrealistic.
They still view the US as an enemy, and whose going to turn up to a gunfight, if one side demands you cannot bring guns, but we can.
And that is the main point the analysts seem to be making: NK's only got the stick in terms of rhetoric about nuking everyone.
If they give that up, what else do they have to negotiate with in future? They're not about to throw away decades of communist rule to suddenly play nice.
Trump was tweeting some fairly contradictory stuff after he left G7. Anyone seen what he's done so far after this one?
-
Apologies if someone already posted this - the signed statement in full:
President Donald J Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong-un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) held a first, historic summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018.
President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un conducted a comprehensive, in-depth, and sincere exchange of opinions on the issues related to the establishment of new US-DPRK relations and the building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong-un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.
Convinced that the establishment of new US-DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognising that mutual confidence-building can promote the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un state the following:
1 The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2 The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
3 Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.
4 The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.
Having acknowledged that the US-DPRK summit — the first in history — was an epochal event of great significance and overcoming decades of tensions and hostilities between the two countries and for the opening of a new future, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un commit to implement the stipulations in this joint statement fully and expeditiously.
The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations led by the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK official, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the US-DPRK summit.President Donald J Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong-un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have committed to cooperate for the development of new US-DPRK relations and for the promotion of peace, prosperity, and security of the Korean Peninsula and of the world.
June 12, 2018
Sentosa Island
-
It's way too early to be disparaging or congratulating Trump over this.
On one hand we seem to have made progress towards denuclearisation of the peninsula - but on the other hand the language is so mealy-mouthed "work towards" is a long way from what Trump said were his non-negotiables.
However Kim isn't lobbing missiles into the Sea of Japan and Trump isn't sabre rattling either so that's progress of sorts.
In concrete terms I do wonder how far advanced we are from the situation 18 months ago. Time will tell. My first impression is NK has got more from this whole episode than the USA.
-
I have no doubt that if Obama had done this it would be regarded as one of the greatest triumphs of peace in human history.
Yes very early days, yes could go pear shaped but they're hardly going to resolve 60 years of extreme tension in a single meeting. There is no way that the creation of this agreement is a negative outcome. It will be very interesting to see how this effects Trumps approval ratings and also trust in the media that continues to try and slander everything he does.
-
@nta said in North Korea:
@majorrage said in North Korea:
It's interesting how this plays out.
Regardless of how you view this whole thing, expecting the North to agree to unilaterally give up all nuclear weapons seems completely unrealistic.
They still view the US as an enemy, and whose going to turn up to a gunfight, if one side demands you cannot bring guns, but we can.
And that is the main point the analysts seem to be making: NK's only got the stick in terms of rhetoric about nuking everyone.
If they give that up, what else do they have to negotiate with in future? They're not about to throw away decades of communist rule to suddenly play nice.
That's where I wonder about the role of China behind the scenes with NK. I guess it could be from any number of angles, ranging from:
- 'It's all good to negotiate, we won't let anyone do X, Y, or Z to you on our back doorstep'.... right through to:
- 'That's it! You've gone too bloody far this time, sort this mess out or else'...
In that context, Trump raising the stakes in the rhetoric game over the last year looks like it has helped.
-
@Rembrandt natch - I mean he got a Nobel just for being
Trump would agree he is calling it one of the greatest days for peace in human history....
I don't think there really is an Agreement as such. Its more like a Letter Of Intent to work towards an Agreement.
It will play well domestically for both leaders, but more so for Kim I think. Trump has given him legitimacy and promises - he has given Trump promises. Plus he got to go to Sentosa and get selfies at Marina Bay
-
@dogmeat said in North Korea:
@Rembrandt natch - I mean he got a Nobel just for being
Trump would agree he is calling it one of the greatest days for peace in human history....
I don't think there really is an Agreement as such. Its more like a Letter Of Intent to work towards an Agreement.
It will play well domestically for both leaders, but more so for Kim I think. Trump has given him legitimacy and promises - he has given Trump promises. Plus he got to go to Sentosa and get selfies at Marina Bay
With Singapore Kim has also given his people a glimpse of the outside world - albeit carefully controlled by the media - that looks very different to their own... in the long run that might also be a win for Trump and Kim's neighbours.
-
@dogmeat said in North Korea:
It's way too early to be disparaging or congratulating Trump over this.
On one hand we seem to have made progress towards denuclearisation of the peninsula - but on the other hand the language is so mealy-mouthed "work towards" is a long way from what Trump said were his non-negotiables.
However Kim isn't lobbing missiles into the Sea of Japan and Trump isn't sabre rattling either so that's progress of sorts.
In concrete terms I do wonder how far advanced we are from the situation 18 months ago. Time will tell. My first impression is NK has got more from this whole episode than the USA.
So you don't think that releasing of prisoners is concrete? You dont think the return of remains is conclusive? You don't think them actually meeting and talking is concrete? Or like many media pundits.. you think the only things concrete are media approved? Now we have to discuss what is 'concrete' and what is not.
The ground is continually moving on what is considered progress. If Trump does anything, you can guarantee those that have never liked him, like yourself, will always find some way to minimize it as much as possible. People have gotten so partisan it is almost sad. Trump derangement has really set in.
How is it to early to congratulate Trump over this? 2 leaders of nuclear armed countries at WAR, meet to talk through issues in a civilized and positive way.. and the nay sayers tell us we must not congratulate them? Fucking hell, it was only months ago these exact same nay sayers were telling us how there wasn't an easy solution or nuclear war was coming.... then we were told Trump need to find a way go get dialog... now dialog isn't enough... we must have conclusive results immediately... and progress can just be dismissed as 'mealy mouthed'.
Now we are stuck with sentiments that a nuclear power not lobbing missiles into the sea of Japan is only 'progress of sorts'... it is real progress that actually means something to real people in that region.
No one is claiming this is the end result, or even if the end result that we all want will happen. But cant we just admit it is a good start with some positive and concrete results.. and shock horror maybe we can congratulate Trump on getting us to this point?
I wish the pundits would stow the Trump animus for a change. -
@dogmeat said in North Korea:
Trump would agree he is calling it one of the greatest days for peace in human history....
Can you name many better ones?
Obviously the world wars... Reagan and the cold war... maybe Nixon and China.. but there wasn't an actual war with that.I bet those doomsday clock people dont move their clock backwards from midnight.... despite the world def being safer now. If only temporarily.
-
@dogmeat said in North Korea:
@Rembrandt natch - I mean he got a Nobel just for being
Trump would agree he is calling it one of the greatest days for peace in human history....
I don't think there really is an Agreement as such. Its more like a Letter Of Intent to work towards an Agreement.
It will play well domestically for both leaders, but more so for Kim I think. Trump has given him legitimacy and promises - he has given Trump promises. Plus he got to go to Sentosa and get selfies at Marina Bay
There's the legitimacy argument again. What exactly do you mean by that?
-
@rembrandt said in North Korea:
I have no doubt that if Obama had done this it would be regarded as one of the greatest triumphs of peace in human history.
Like the Iran Nuclear Deal? Which - wait for it - is a hideous failure or a strategic success depending which media outlet you read
The document is a declaration and if it continues to hold a peace that was barely threatened, then yay I guess. If it improves the situation for the North Korean people, and starts to remove obstacles separating the two Koreas, then bloody well done. Not sure the communist power brokers necessarily want to do that, but time will tell.
-
Gotta say I like how Trump stays true to his roots Always thinking about the deal!
In a press conference following his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore, President Donald Trump applauded North Korea’s “great beaches” and said they would be a great location for condos and hotels.
As a former developer, Trump appeared to hint at that real estate could be the key to North Korea’s economic development as a country.
“As an example, they have great beaches,” Trump said to reporters. “You see that whenever they’re exploding their cannons into the ocean. I said, ‘Boy, look at that view. Wouldn’t that make a great condo?'”
Trump added that North Korea could be a great location for hotels, too.
“You could have the best hotels in the world right there,” Trump said. “Think of it from a real estate perspective. You have South Korea, you have China, and they own the land in the middle. How bad is that, right? It’s great.”
-
@nta said in North Korea:
@rembrandt said in North Korea:
I have no doubt that if Obama had done this it would be regarded as one of the greatest triumphs of peace in human history.
Like the Iran Nuclear Deal? Which - wait for it - is a hideous failure or a strategic success depending which media outlet you read
The document is a declaration and if it continues to hold a peace that was barely threatened, then yay I guess. If it improves the situation for the North Korean people, and starts to remove obstacles separating the two Koreas, then bloody well done. Not sure the communist power brokers necessarily want to do that, but time will tell.
I find the comparisons t o the Iran deal fascinating and accurate.
One thing I believe Trump will have to do is take any agreement to the senate... which Obama did not do. -
@baron-silas-greenback said in North Korea:
One thing I believe Trump will have to do is take any agreement to the senate... which Obama did not do.
The timing will also be interesting - the opportunity is there to erode the Republican advantage in the mid-terms in November BUT the Democrats are going to look like utter numpties if they oppose a good deal just because it is Trump's, whether they have a majority in either house or not.
-
The narrative when we were young (and some actually still believe) is that Kennedy got the Rusk Bear to back off and take their missiles out of Cuba. JFK spanked the bully. End of story. But of course there was more to the story. After the Bay of Pigs fiasco, the Cubans and Rooskies wan’ted a guarantee USA would not invade Cuba, which was the purpose for their being Russian missiles in Cuba in the first place. Kennedy gave them a guarantee (no matter that Castro was pissed-as-hell Kruschev and Kennedy made a deal behind his back) and which America has since honoured they have been at a state of defacto war with Cuba for decades, but they’ve not done another invasion. Significantly, the terms of the (secret) deal was USA had to withdraw their own missiles from the Rooskie border in Turkey. Quid pro quo, make Jack look like a superhero.
I believe this is the deal Trump wants to broker. You give up your nukes, we promise not to invade.
From Kim’s perspective, he should be very skeptical. He’s seen what’s happened to Saddam, he’s seen what went down with Muammar after he’d made peace with Uncle Sam and given up his weapons. Nukes may be his only bargaining chip.
On the other hand, Kim might believe deep in his heart & brain two things: one, North Korea can not succeed and will be doomed on it’s current course; and two, Donald Trump may be the only politician — and certainly American president — that he will ever be able to make a deal with, a deal that could drag his country’s sorry ass out of Hell, the moment is now. He might be smart enough to realize he could be setting himself up to be a Great Hero of the Korean People, and the opportunity is right in front of him. This is a 70 year war — brother against brother. It’s not racial or even ethnic; it’s purely ideological. Their soul is one people/one naytion. The people on both sides want reunification. If he’s just a little bit smart, he has to realize NK has fuckall future, and that means he’s got to be the builder that fixes it.
-
@salacious-crumb said in North Korea:
The narrative when we were young (and some actually still believe) is that Kennedy got the Rusk Bear to back off and take their missiles out of Cuba. JFK spanked the bully. End of story. But of course there was more to the story. After the Bay of Pigs fiasco, the Cubans and Rooskies wan’ted a guarantee USA would not invade Cuba, which was the purpose for their being Russian missiles in Cuba in the first place. Kennedy gave them a guarantee (no matter that Castro was pissed-as-hell Kruschev and Kennedy made a deal behind his back) and which America has since honoured they have been at a state of defacto war with Cuba for decades, but they’ve not done another invasion. Significantly, the terms of the (secret) deal was USA had to withdraw their own missiles from the Rooskie border in Turkey. Quid pro quo, make Jack look like a superhero.
I believe this is the deal Trump wants to broker. You give up your nukes, we promise not to invade.
From Kim’s perspective, he should be very skeptical. He’s seen what’s happened to Saddam, he’s seen what went down with Muammar after he’d made peace with Uncle Sam and given up his weapons. Nukes may be his only bargaining chip.
On the other hand, Kim might believe deep in his heart & brain two things: one, North Korea can not succeed and will be doomed on it’s current course; and two, Donald Trump may be the only politician — and certainly American president — that he will ever be able to make a deal with, a deal that could drag his country’s sorry ass out of Hell, the moment is now. He might be smart enough to realize he could be setting himself up to be a Great Hero of the Korean People, and the opportunity is right in front of him. This is a 70 year war — brother against brother. It’s not racial or even ethnic; it’s purely ideological. Their soul is one people/one naytion. The people on both sides want reunification. If he’s just a little bit smart, he has to realize NK has fuckall future, and that means he’s got to be the builder that fixes it.
I think there are two important things. He's been educated in the west and must have seen how much better it is. Plus he can look to China as a model for how to proceed. Capitalism has saved (and probably entrenched) that regime. With foreign doners failing over themselves to throw cash at him, the positive changes could be massive. Another advantage is that (unlike West Germany) I don't think there's much desire for reunification in South Korea. He would of course be screwed in that scenario.
It's a weird situation, you want NK to be a proper part of the world community and for their people to have better lives. But you also want that Fat Shit to die a horrible death. Unfortunately, he doesn't appear to be going anywhere so we'll just have to take what we can get.
-
@rancid-schnitzel said in North Korea:
I think there are two important things. He's been educated in the west and must have seen how much better it is. Plus he can look to China as a model for how to proceed. Capitalism has saved (and probably entrenched) that regime. With foreign doners failing over themselves to throw cash at him, the positive changes could be massive. Another advantage is that (unlike West Germany) I don't think there's much desire for reunification in South Korea. He would of course be screwed in that scenari
China observed and understood the need for "control capitalism" for decades, particularly as it had the massive workforce required to make the most of the relationships it could build. A history of reverse engineering any accomplishment of the west also helped in that regard.
North Korea would have very little to contribute to South Korea (or the world) in terms of labour force, technology, or natural wealth.
-
@nta said in North Korea:
@rancid-schnitzel said in North Korea:
I think there are two important things. He's been educated in the west and must have seen how much better it is. Plus he can look to China as a model for how to proceed. Capitalism has saved (and probably entrenched) that regime. With foreign doners failing over themselves to throw cash at him, the positive changes could be massive. Another advantage is that (unlike West Germany) I don't think there's much desire for reunification in South Korea. He would of course be screwed in that scenari
China observed and understood the need for "control capitalism" for decades, particularly as it had the massive workforce required to make the most of the relationships it could build. A history of reverse engineering any accomplishment of the west also helped in that regard.
North Korea would have very little to contribute to South Korea (or the world) in terms of labour force, technology, or natural wealth.
Nothing in terms of labour force? Really? Why would you say that?
With a much much larger population and area, China would have been infinitely harder to keep control of than NK potentially ever will.
North Korea