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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
At the end of the day there needs to be a settlement/deal - the idea that another referendum to reverse the result or simply revoking A50 will solve anything is bonkers.
Given the circus which is Westminster there seems no sign of EU offering a deal which could be accepted -- current stance is pretty much NI is the price of Brexit.
So short term choice seems to be extension/GE or No Deal.
After GE if BJ in it's Deal/No Deal. If Labour then wrangling and referendum.
The only deal I could see happening any time soon is NI remaining in EUCM for a transition period (aka time-limited NI Backstop) but EU unlikely to go for this, and if they did it would only be in the days before No Deal was about to occur.
Then they'll be three years plus negotiating a trade deal...
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
I think I need a remainer to educate me on some if this because my bias must be blinding me...
How the hell do opposition parties think it looks to call out the govt as evil, incompetent, corrupt etc... Whilst at same time refusing the opportunity to fight an election to defeat them . The optics are horrific surely???The Fixed Term Parliament Act means having to wait a minimum of 5 weeks (25 working days is the wording) for an election. Since the opposition don't want a no-deal Brexit, forcing an election without either a deal or extension is not a goer. If the opposition has a potential PM available, what might happen is that they pass a vote of no confidence in the current government, a new PM is appointed and then succeeds in a vote of confidence, then negotiates an extension or a deal (or both). This was the Labour suggestion, which would then be followed by a referendum.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
I think I need a remainer to educate me on some if this because my bias must be blinding me...
How the hell do opposition parties think it looks to call out the govt as evil, incompetent, corrupt etc... Whilst at same time refusing the opportunity to fight an election to defeat them . The optics are horrific surely???The Fixed Term Parliament Act means having to wait a minimum of 5 weeks (25 working days is the wording) for an election. Since the opposition don't want a no-deal Brexit, forcing an election without either a deal or extension is not a goer. If the opposition has a potential PM available, what might happen is that they pass a vote of no confidence in the current government, a new PM is appointed and then succeeds in a vote of confidence, then negotiates an extension or a deal (or both). This was the Labour suggestion, which would then be followed by a referendum.
Hang on..... I have heard that before but I don't get it.
Don't the opposition now control parliament? And aren't they sitting right now? Don't they make the laws? Why don't they just change the law to make that scenario impossible?And lets assume they just cannot do that due to a lack of unity etc. The optics are bloody terrible. You couldnt make a more gift wrapped situation for Boris to paint this as a parliament that doesnt want to be accountable to the people, or have a mandate form the people.
And isnt this all just a waste of time anyway? Lets assume that everything goes the way the opposition wants.. and they get the extension and pass a law to have a second referendum.. or revoke article 50.
Eventually a GE will be held and it is likely that the Boris would win and just reverse every single one and just take the UK out of the EU.
Everything the commons drafts into law will become meaningless once a GE happens.But thanks for giving your thoughts.
On a sidenote... just as the public is sick to bloody death of the commons antics and buffoonery and petty insults and faux rage form all sides.... isnt Bercow just the very worst speaker? The way he speaks is almost like he is trying to make the commons a laughing stock. Nobody hearing him talk would think oh.. yes he is a man with gravitas in a crisis.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
I think I need a remainer to educate me on some if this because my bias must be blinding me...
How the hell do opposition parties think it looks to call out the govt as evil, incompetent, corrupt etc... Whilst at same time refusing the opportunity to fight an election to defeat them . The optics are horrific surely???The Fixed Term Parliament Act means having to wait a minimum of 5 weeks (25 working days is the wording) for an election. Since the opposition don't want a no-deal Brexit, forcing an election without either a deal or extension is not a goer. If the opposition has a potential PM available, what might happen is that they pass a vote of no confidence in the current government, a new PM is appointed and then succeeds in a vote of confidence, then negotiates an extension or a deal (or both). This was the Labour suggestion, which would then be followed by a referendum.
Hang on..... I have heard that before but I don't get it.
Don't the opposition now control parliament? And aren't they sitting right now? Don't they make the laws? Why don't they just change the law to make that scenario impossible?And lets assume they just cannot do that due to a lack of unity etc. The optics are bloody terrible. You couldnt make a more gift wrapped situation for Boris to paint this as a parliament that doesnt want to be accountable to the people, or have a mandate form the people.
And isnt this all just a waste of time anyway? Lets assume that everything goes the way the opposition wants.. and they get the extension and pass a law to have a second referendum.. or revoke article 50.
Eventually a GE will be held and it is likely that the Boris would win and just reverse every single one and just take the UK out of the EU.
Everything the commons drafts into law will become meaningless once a GE happens.But thanks for giving your thoughts.
On a sidenote... just as the public is sick to bloody death of the commons antics and buffoonery and petty insults and faux rage form all sides.... isnt Bercow just the very worst speaker? The way he speaks is almost like he is trying to make the commons a laughing stock. Nobody hearing him talk would think oh.. yes he is a man with gravitas in a crisis.
The government still controls the order of business. Parliament could change that, and might still do so, but generally has not done much of that because they have little opportunity to do so. It's only really since Johnson became PM that the government splintered and lost control to the current extent, and at least some of that time was spent on the prorogation debacle.
Hard to tell in FPP whether the Conservatives would actually win an election - looks like it currently, but if Brexit is on the table and Farage splinters a stack of Brexit votes away from the Conservatives, the Conservatives could easily come second.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
I think I need a remainer to educate me on some if this because my bias must be blinding me...
How the hell do opposition parties think it looks to call out the govt as evil, incompetent, corrupt etc... Whilst at same time refusing the opportunity to fight an election to defeat them . The optics are horrific surely???The Fixed Term Parliament Act means having to wait a minimum of 5 weeks (25 working days is the wording) for an election. Since the opposition don't want a no-deal Brexit, forcing an election without either a deal or extension is not a goer. If the opposition has a potential PM available, what might happen is that they pass a vote of no confidence in the current government, a new PM is appointed and then succeeds in a vote of confidence, then negotiates an extension or a deal (or both). This was the Labour suggestion, which would then be followed by a referendum.
Hang on..... I have heard that before but I don't get it.
Don't the opposition now control parliament? And aren't they sitting right now? Don't they make the laws? Why don't they just change the law to make that scenario impossible?And lets assume they just cannot do that due to a lack of unity etc. The optics are bloody terrible. You couldnt make a more gift wrapped situation for Boris to paint this as a parliament that doesnt want to be accountable to the people, or have a mandate form the people.
And isnt this all just a waste of time anyway? Lets assume that everything goes the way the opposition wants.. and they get the extension and pass a law to have a second referendum.. or revoke article 50.
Eventually a GE will be held and it is likely that the Boris would win and just reverse every single one and just take the UK out of the EU.
Everything the commons drafts into law will become meaningless once a GE happens.But thanks for giving your thoughts.
On a sidenote... just as the public is sick to bloody death of the commons antics and buffoonery and petty insults and faux rage form all sides.... isnt Bercow just the very worst speaker? The way he speaks is almost like he is trying to make the commons a laughing stock. Nobody hearing him talk would think oh.. yes he is a man with gravitas in a crisis.
The government still controls the order of business. Parliament could change that, and might still do so, but generally has not done much of that because they have little opportunity to do so. It's only really since Johnson became PM that the government splintered and lost control to the current extent, and at least some of that time was spent on the prorogation debacle.
Hard to tell in FPP whether the Conservatives would actually win an election - looks like it currently, but if Brexit is on the table and Farage splinters a stack of Brexit votes away from the Conservatives, the Conservatives could easily come second.
Dont agree with your first point at all. The Speaker has proven to be a hardcore remianer who is not remotely afraid to break convention and let remainers do whatever they like whendver they like, they could easily get a chance to vote on whatver they want. The opposition own parliament, they own the chaos.
Your second point is valid, but I just work on the assumption that the Brexit party will fade or help Boris, they dont want power, they want Brexit.
No the same on the reain side where the Greens , LIb dems and labour wouldnt open a door for each in an election campaign let alone help each other. -
The EU want a deal and there are noises that the Backstop is now negotiable - they would be worried by a Singapore-style economy offshore of Europe. (Why build cars in France when you can build them in the UK, pay less tax and export them to the US facing lower tariffs?)
.A GE and win for BoJo would, I think, cement that deal. Another hung parliament would be a disaster all round.
There have been comments that the EU will do a deal and refuse an extension if the HoC rejects the deal . That reduces the risk of either a BoJo-led No Deal UK or another hung Parliament and years of this crap.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
Everything the commons drafts into law will become meaningless once a GE happens.
Depends if it's a signed treaty or agreement with another country or the EU.
If the current HoC drags on and forces, say, a Customs Union deal with the EU, it will be difficult for an incoming government to simply reverse that.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
Everything the commons drafts into law will become meaningless once a GE happens.
Depends if it's a signed treaty or agreement with another country or the EU.
If the current HoC drags on and forces, say, a Customs Union deal with the EU, it will be difficult for an incoming government to simply reverse that.
If they can Brexit they could break a customs union. Especially if ithe EU knew they were meddling in UK politics. The EU should know better to sign an agreement with a commons with no current mandate
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
If they can Brexit they could break a customs union.
Pretty sure it would mean re-negotiating the deal.
Especially if ithe EU knew they were meddling in UK politics. The EU should know better to sign an agreement with a commons with no current mandate
Legally, a HoC majority IS a mandate.
This is why, I think, the EU will be keen to do a deal and get it nailed down. They don't want another 2-3 years of this and they don't want a no- deal Brexit
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
The EU want a deal and there are noises that the Backstop is now negotiable - they would be worried by a Singapore-style economy offshore of Europe. (Why build cars in France when you can build them in the UK, pay less tax and export them to the US facing lower tariffs?)
.A GE and win for BoJo would, I think, cement that deal. Another hung parliament would be a disaster all round.
There have been comments that the EU will do a deal and refuse an extension if the HoC rejects the deal . That reduces the risk of either a BoJo-led No Deal UK or another hung Parliament and years of this crap.
I have followed this quite closely and whilst EU SAYS it wants a deal, it has indicated that such a deal must have IDENTICAL consequences to NI remaining in the EUCM. The latter is not an acceptable permanent option for UK (e.g. tariffs on trade between GB and NI!!!), and Brexit must thus create a border on IOI between EUCM and UKCM.
In other words, EU's criteria are impossible to deliver.
What WOULD work IMO is a transition period of two or three years during which NI remained in EUCM and thus no IOI trade border for time being. No sign of that being offered by Commission.
January 31 needs to become a hard deadline for Deal/No Deal and the next phase can begin (Please God!).
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
January 31 needs to become a hard deadline for Deal/No Deal and the next phase can begin (Please God!).
I suspect it will drag on for far longer than that.
The Opposition may well not allow an election until there is a further extension past 31 Jan 2020
There seems a good chance to get an extension to 31 January will require HOC to commit to GE. I think Macron wants this done and dusted before elections next year.
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a deal must have IDENTICAL consequences to NI remaining in the EUCM
I think both sides want a friction-less, no border solution rather than NI being split from the UK
It works between US & Canada so no reason why it couldn't between Ni & Ireland. Well, apart from incompetent EU negotiators and bumbling UK civil servants that is
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
a deal must have IDENTICAL consequences to NI remaining in the EUCM
I think both sides want a friction-less, no border solution rather than NI being split from the UK
It works between US & Canada so no reason why it couldn't between Ni & Ireland. Well, apart from incompetent EU negotiators and bumbling UK civil servants that is
No chance in short term, but with a pragmatic approach something workable could be agreed during a three year NI transition. Needs checks away from border and at NI seaports.
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The supreme court decision has backfired on the opposition and rebels. With Parliament forced back in session, it can to do nothing but spin it's wheels further fatiguing the public interest playing right into Boris' hands.
Labor seem so determined to win every single political stunt that they can't see the forest for the trees. Why on earth would they vote down a three-day recess for a Conservative Conference? The party has just expelled a dozen long term members and has further fractures developing. They want to take the national spotlight and place it on their infighting and Labor voted no? Baffling.
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The supreme court decision has backfired on the opposition and rebels. With Parliament forced back in session, it can to do nothing but spin it's wheels further fatiguing the public interest playing right into Boris' hands.
Labor seem so determined to win every single political stunt that they can't see the forest for the trees. Why on earth would they vote down a three-day recess for a Conservative Conference? The party has just expelled a dozen long term members and has further fractures developing. They want to take the national spotlight and place it on their infighting and Labor voted no? Baffling.
Perhaps they have a cunning plan
Brexit