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@MajorRage Yeah. Maybe not zero, but low.Whoever said 10% earlier probably about right.
The fact both sides seem to dislike the deal probably means its pretty good, and in the middle, as there's no perfect way out of this mess
The right leaning me still blames Corbyn for everything.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Reading that, I give Boris zero chance.
Not if the EU refuse another extension and it's a straight choice between the BoJo deal and No Deal. Juncker has just indicated that is the EU Commission's view - though it's up to EU leaders to finally decide and not Juncker.
Either way, BoJo gets his deal thru, there's an election and we move on OR the deal is rejected, there's an extension, an election, and a straight choice between ending this shit by re-electing BoJo or carrying on with more deals, hung parliaments. more referendums and ongoing chaos.
I sense BoJo has actually thought this through.
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Brilliantly ironic tweet from Farage on Juncker ruling out another extension.
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I have no idea what the opposition are trying to do.
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
I have no idea what the opposition are trying to do.
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes.I suspect there are going to be quite a few from opposition parties who vote for it. But I still think it will lose. And then ...
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
I get that people are entrenched, but I firmly believe people are no longer voting in country's interest. Here's my prediction:
Parliament doesn't back it, general election gets called.
Boris & Co go to every single constituent who voted leave and the MP voted against the deal (this is likely to be 150+)
Conservatives win around 48% of what's required.
Conservatives go around all parties and say, only prepared to team up with anybody who agrees to vote for this deal.Somebody caves. Most likely the Brexit party.
Done.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Can anybody wade on here and smash my opinions and thoughts to pieces?
I need a contrarian. I've just had 45 mins discussion with colleagues .. and we essentially all agree. Worrying.
London centric.
Commute to London centric. But there's all walks here.
Apart from Corbyn supporters.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Can anybody wade on here and smash my opinions and thoughts to pieces?
I need a contrarian. I've just had 45 mins discussion with colleagues .. and we essentially all agree. Worrying.
London centric.
Commute to London centric. But there's all walks here.
Apart from Corbyn supporters.
I tried.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Can anybody wade on here and smash my opinions and thoughts to pieces?
I need a contrarian. I've just had 45 mins discussion with colleagues .. and we essentially all agree. Worrying.
I'd like to try but sadly I think you're on the money. The deal, such as it is, seems to be essentially May's deal but instead of a hard border between NI and the republic, there is a semi-hard border in the Irish Sea. Now I can see how this sits a little better on the island of Ireland but not sure that it's a solution in re the UK and I'm not sure there IS a solution either.
However, I am beginning to think, that apart from the DUP and Sein Fein, the Irish problem is just a hook to hang the coat on. The real, underlying issue is a reluctance to leave the EU and party politics. Neither of which are being dealt with in Boris' deal. So sadly I fear your predicted outcome is highly likely. Where this takes us aside from becoming even more divided I don't know.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes.
Extension then a General Election.
Parliament v People. BoJo wins. Brexit done
Bojo loses. Brexit chaos for another year, then 2nd Referendum.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
However, I am beginning to think, that apart from the DUP and Sein Fein, the Irish problem is just a hook to hang the coat on. The real, underlying issue is a reluctance to leave the EU and party politics
Pretty much on the nail. Some MPs were calling for a 2nd referendum or saying it was "advisory only" within hours of the 2016 result. They are now calling for another vote as "we didn't know it was going to be so difficult" or "to confirm the deal". Strange they didn't say that before the referendum result they expected to win. Even stranger that they don't see how transparent they are.
I used to think the Eurosceptics were nuts (still do) but the Remain side have become crazier. The Lib Dem's position appears to be to have another referendum and if Leave win again, to refuse to implement the result.
Labour's position is to get another deal, put that to a public vote and campaign against the deal they have just negotiated. Yes, really.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes.
Extension then a General Election.
Parliament v People. BoJo wins. Brexit done
Bojo loses. Brexit chaos for another year, then 2nd Referendum.
I wish I shared your binary outcome view but I really think that the NI issue will continue to be problematical even if Boris wins a people v parliament GE. This raises issues about the Good Friday agreement, support from the US (possibility of trade deals being dependent on same) and the whole future of NI within the UK.
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Think Norn Iron will be less of an issue now there's no border on the island. BoJo's deal seems to have the support of SF. the moderate Unionists and Dublin. Interestingly, heard a NI business leader praising the deal as it gave NI access to the EU AND the UK - inc. any FTA's (eg. the US) the UK makes.
FWIW, I sense that any FTA between the EU & the UK will be pretty close to the current NI/UK/EU arrangement. There's really no realistic alternative for either side.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
The deal, such as it is, seems to be essentially May's deal but instead of a hard border between NI and the republic, there is a semi-hard border in the Irish Sea.
What hypothetical changes could have been made to the WA to have made is substantively different then?
Brexit