Coronavirus - Overall
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Article below. Stuff of interest to me in bold.
The overall death rate from covid-19 has been estimated at 0.66%, rising sharply to 7.8% in people aged over 80 and declining to 0.0016% in children aged 9 and under.1
The estimates, calculated by researchers in the UK, used aggregate data on cases and deaths in mainland China. Unlike other estimates, however, they adjusted for undiagnosed cases and the number of people in each age group of a population.
The team found that nearly one in five people over 80 infected with covid-19 would probably require hospital admission, compared with around 1% of people under 30.
They also estimated that the average time between a person displaying symptoms and dying was 17.8 days, while recovering from the disease was estimated to take slightly longer, with patients being discharged from hospital after an average of 22.6 days.
The paper, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases and funded by the UK Medical Research Council, analysed data from 3665 covid-19 cases in mainland China to estimate the admission rate among different age groups.
It reported that 0.04% of 10-19 year olds would probably require hospital care—as would 1.0% of people in their 20s, 3.4% of people aged 30-39, 4.3% aged 40-49, 8.2% aged 50-59, 11.8% in their 60s, 16.6% in their 70s, and 18.4% of those over 80.
Infection fatality ratio
Neil Ferguson, lead researcher from Imperial College London who carries out modelling for the UK government’s covid-19 response, said, “As the UK epidemic unfolds, more data are becoming available, and at the moment the proportion of people in each age group most likely to require hospitalisation and [the proportion] most likely to die from infection are consistent with the estimates in this study.”For the case fatality rate the team analysed 70 117 laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases in mainland China, along with 689 positive cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights.
Using the number of confirmed cases and deaths, the researchers reported the “crude case fatality ratio” as 3.67% (95% confidence interval 3.56% to 3.80%). However, after adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, they estimated the case fatality ratio (the percentage of people with symptomatic or confirmed disease who die from the disease) in China as 1.38% (1.23% to 1.53%).
They then estimated the infection fatality ratio (the percentage of all infected people who die from the disease, including those with mild disease) as 0.66% (0.39% to 1.33%).
Healthcare systems overwhelmed
The team warned in their paper, “Our estimate of the proportion of infected individuals requiring hospitalisation, when combined with likely infection attack rates (around 50-80%), show that even the most advanced healthcare systems are likely to be overwhelmed. These estimates are therefore crucial to enable countries around the world to best prepare as the global pandemic continues to unfold.”The paper had some limitations, including the researchers being unable to adjust for the effect on prognosis of underlying health conditions owing to a lack of individual level data.
The research team reported no competing interests, but they reported receiving grants from the World Health Organization; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Janssen Pharmaceuticals; and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, for work outside of this study.
References
↵Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 2020 Mar 30. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext.Google Scholar
View AbstractSo the raw "Closed Cases" stat that shows of those cases that have had an outcome about 20-21% result in death needs to be adjusted so that we're looking at the total deaths of 5 days ago versing (@Snowy) the total recoveries today to get a fairer comparison (i.e., for those that starting showing symptoms 23 days ago).
I'd still like more data on comorbidities.
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I am confused is that supposed to be funny? Or are you highlighting her stupidity?
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@Kirwan we have supposedly tested 10,610 per million people, whihc is similar to Denmark, better than Canada and South Korea who most people have lauded for thier approach...Aus are sitting at 12,541/1,000,000
Could we be doing more, hell yes...
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Kirwan we have supposedly tested 9,721 per million people, whihc is similar to Denmark, better than Canada and South Korea who most people have lauded for thier approach...Aus are sitting at 12,541/1,000,000
Could we be doing more, hell yes...
No, no, no! I'm not letting your facts into my bubble.
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@JC afraid so - I was just in that stats site that gets repeatedly put up. Played around with the tests/1,000 data they have Chose NZ Italy, OZ, USA, Sth Korea, France, UK, Germany. Italy came out ahead - just above us. You can really see that we have ramped up over the last week but even at our worst we were middle of the pack
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I am confused is that supposed to be funny? Or are you highlighting her stupidity?
Neither
What real people in the firing line are feeling
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Speaking with an ICU nurse mate last night and he said the current Covid-19 test is only 70% accurate.
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I am confused is that supposed to be funny? Or are you highlighting her stupidity?
Neither
What real people in the firing line are feeling
No. Thats what Rhiannon is feeling, and it's mainly about her own politics. Comparing UK, a country of 65 mill living extremely close to a continent of 600 mill and Heathrow airport, to a country of 5 mill, living extremely close to fuck all with Auckland airport is fucking stupid.
I know a few in the NHS, not all of them agree with her.
EDIT. Apologies, that was over the top. Bullshit like this triggers me.
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Speaking with an ICU nurse mate last night and he said the current Covid-19 test is only 70% accurate.
This has been reported properly by the UK media. The UK's COVID-19 test isn't 100% reliable.
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Hard to know if this is meme or overall
It's factual after a fashion to overall it is
Even the birds stopped chirping where I live