-
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
2016 called and wants it's Hillary can't lose slogan back.
But in 2016 it was an option to see what Trump could do. This time people are aware of what he can (or can’t) do.
Working hard to remove medical cover from voters without a replacement idea while in the middle of a pandemic is a pretty dumb move.
Even when lined up with a soft question of “what will be your focus next term” he was unable to point out anything. He is expecting votes for a concept and/or to keep ‘the other side’ out.
He IS Hillary this time. -
@Crucial
I always look at the betting markets as a good indicator - at least better than agenda driven media.Biden certainly seems the strong favorite at this stage.
Can Trump pull something out of the fire?
Maybe?Joe Biden 61.9%
Donald Trump 36.4% -
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
2016 called and wants it's Hillary can't lose slogan back.
Working hard to remove medical cover from voters without a replacement idea while in the middle of a pandemic is a pretty dumb move.
Even when lined up with a soft question of “what will be your focus next term” he was unable to point out anything. He is expecting votes for a concept and/or to keep ‘the other side’ out.What's your source for these?
-
@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
2016 called and wants it's Hillary can't lose slogan back.
Working hard to remove medical cover from voters without a replacement idea while in the middle of a pandemic is a pretty dumb move.
Even when lined up with a soft question of “what will be your focus next term” he was unable to point out anything. He is expecting votes for a concept and/or to keep ‘the other side’ out.What's your source for these?
Source?
Supreme Court challenge on ACA a week ago. Fact not source.
Couldn't give policy when asked? Fox.Here's the question and answer. First googled copy I found
Hannity asked Trump: “If you hear in 131 days from now, at some point in the night or early morning: ‘We can now project Donald J. Trump has been re-elected the 45th president of the United States’—let’s talk. What’s at stake in this election as you compare and contrast, and what is one of your top priority items for a second term?”
“Well, one of the things that will be really great, you know, the word experience is still good,” Trump said while turning to the audience. “I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It’s an, a very important meaning.”
“I never did this before. I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington, I think, 17 times. All of a sudden, I’m president of the United States. You know the story. I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our first lady and I say, ‘This is great,'” Trump said. “But I didn’t know very many people in Washington, it wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now, I know everybody, and I have great people in the administration.”
“You make some mistakes. Like, you know, an idiot like Bolton. The only thing he wanted to do was drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to kill people,” Trump said.
Then yesterday it was same question but the answer was something like " I'm going to make manufacturing great. I've already made it great but I'm going to make it great again"
....and people are worried about Biden being coherent? Trump can't even string words together to make a meaning out of them.
That aside the point is more that he has no policies our manifest apart from 'Vote for Me' .
Biden might be mainly 'Don't vote for him', but he is talking policies, even unpopular ones.
-
@Crucial Cheers just found it too. I loved CNN's actual accurate summary of his response to the question
"Not healthcare, not revive the economy, not continue the coronavirus fight, I have more experience and Bolton's an idiot". Classic Trump right there.
Seems odd timing regarding the ACA alright. I know there is a big argument from conservatives against it but valid or not you'd think you'd want to delay the challenge a couple months until this health scare is less 'front and centre'. I guess it was a campaign promise so maybe hoping to sneak in a win there prior to the election.
-
Crucial, you are making the mistake of thinking that people are voting with their heads.
Team A votes for A
Team B votes for B
A small number swing either way
A large number don't even vote.Things are so polarised, many are just voting against the other guy.
-
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
-
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial
I always look at the betting markets as a good indicator - at least better than agenda driven media.Biden certainly seems the strong favorite at this stage.
Can Trump pull something out of the fire?
Maybe?Joe Biden 61.9%
Donald Trump 36.4%I wouldn't put too much faith in them wrt politics, they got 2016 horribly wrong on the back of Brexit and then totally misread the Australian election.
-
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
Crucial, you are making the mistake of thinking that people are voting with their heads.
Team A votes for A
Team B votes for B
A small number swing either way
A large number don't even vote.Things are so polarised, many are just voting against the other guy.
I completely understand that except for a couple of points.
Trump has targeted a subset of Team A (the ones that wear his hats). Plenty of party members that can't stand him. They may rather not vote but that works for Biden.
The swing voters are the ones that think no party looks after them. They gave Trump a wildcard chance last time because, for them, it was worth a try after Hillary targeted nothing at them. If they either don't vote or change again that works for Biden.
Trump is now the known quantity. You can take away all of his foibles and mannerisms, remove any personality negatives and you are left with a politician big on talk, short on achievements. For those that surprised Clinton by voting Trump last time, he has arguably made things worse or, at best, the same. -
@Duluth said in US Politics:
A competent Governor.. no idea if they have one after the way the last few months have gone. Cuomo isn’t the media darling anymore
Yes, that is the flaw in my prediction. There doesn’t seem to be a good replacement
I see. Cuomo seems the most likely to succeed, probably has the NY "toughness" to take Trumps insults and he'll obviously have the considerable weight of CNN behind him.
-
@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
It's something I've seen in real life and on the internet, there seems to be a genuine belief on the left that Trump won't leave office. It's bizarre.
-
@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
I think that is more about the system than the voting public.
"Chads", electoral college, that sort of thing.
I really can't believe that you actually have to vote for somebody to vote on your behalf. -
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
Crucial, you are making the mistake of thinking that people are voting with their heads.
Team A votes for A
Team B votes for B
A small number swing either way
A large number don't even vote.Things are so polarised, many are just voting against the other guy.
I completely understand that except for a couple of points.
Trump has targeted a subset of Team A (the ones that wear his hats). Plenty of party members that can't stand him. They may rather not vote but that works for Biden.
The swing voters are the ones that think no party looks after them. They gave Trump a wildcard chance last time because, for them, it was worth a try after Hillary targeted nothing at them. If they either don't vote or change again that works for Biden.
Trump is now the known quantity. You can take away all of his foibles and mannerisms, remove any personality negatives and you are left with a politician big on talk, short on achievements. For those that surprised Clinton by voting Trump last time, he has arguably made things worse or, at best, the same.Trumps "foibles" were well known before the election.
Short on achievements is an opinion as well. His achievements have been posted on this thread before, obviously they don't get reported on.
Thinking it's a slam dunk is very similar thinking to 2016 IMO. Will be close IMO, particuarly if they have to prop up Biden's corpse.
-
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
It's something I've seen in real life and on the internet, there seems to be a genuine belief on the left that Trump won't leave office. It's bizarre.
Where did I say he wouldn't leave office? That is the most bizzarre suggestion I have heard simply because there is no way for him to stand ground.
What has been happening is a lot of ground work on disputing postal ballots (before they are even made) and potential skullduggery around voting machine accessibility in targeted areas to test courts.
I doubt very much that these 'rumours' will come true, but they are a slim possibility and I stand by my prediction that if Trump wins it will be after some contested polling. -
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
It's something I've seen in real life and on the internet, there seems to be a genuine belief on the left that Trump won't leave office. It's bizarre.
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
It's something I've seen in real life and on the internet, there seems to be a genuine belief on the left that Trump won't leave office. It's bizarre.
Yeah it's weird how they take the likelihood that he'll have a massive whinge about being treated unfairly as some kind of indication that he'll attempt a coup. It's particularly bizarre given all the Russia Gate hysteria and Hilary's four year mysoginy whinge
-
Aggregate polling shows that he is now at his 1 year floor.
Alarm bells would have to sound if he goes below 40% approval. I'd expect him to bounce back in the next month if the economy continues to improve and if law and order starts to be visibly restored. Both big 'ifs' though.
edit - I can't read graphs
-
@junior said in US Politics:
the likelihood that he'll have a massive whinge about being treated unfairly
It's quite likely. He does have a history of that.
Fake news, only talking to reporters that are on his side, etc.
It just appears to be a personality trait of his. -
@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
Aggregate polling shows that he is now at his 1 year floor.
Alarm bells would have to sound if he goes below 40% approval. I'd expect him to bounce back in the next month if the economy continues to improve and if law and order starts to be visibly restored. Both big 'ifs' though.
edit - I can't read graphs
What is the 'improving economy' you talk of? Stock Market? That's not economy.
Can't find too much positive in here https://www.bea.gov/news/glance -
@Duluth said in US Politics:
A competent Governor.. no idea if they have one after the way the last few months have gone. Cuomo isn’t the media darling anymore
Yes, that is the flaw in my prediction. There doesn’t seem to be a good replacement
I reckon, and no idea if others would agree, that if Biden stepped down and Michelle Obama took over she would absolutely piss it in. Smart, sensible and a clean record. I'd say the centre would love her. She's the only person that stands out to me.
-
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
A competent Governor.. no idea if they have one after the way the last few months have gone. Cuomo isn’t the media darling anymore
Yes, that is the flaw in my prediction. There doesn’t seem to be a good replacement
I see. Cuomo seems the most likely to succeed, probably has the NY "toughness" to take Trumps insults and he'll obviously have the considerable weight of CNN behind him.
My Upstate NY friends can't stand Cuomo.
How influential the non-metropolitan vote is remains to be seen
US Politics