Coronavirus - Overall
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
From the same source:-
Whilst the article is from a trashy tabloid the facts are unquestionable. Covid is currently killing a small fraction of the number of English people being killed by Flu.
No mention of Flu preventing a return of pupils to school!
Likely (though I would always question The Sun’s “facts”). But the worry is not the current levels of deaths it is how infectious the virus is and how containable it isn’t. No-one should be concentrating on a single data point at this stage - as The Sun is. And always does.
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@pakman They ignore what the death rates were before their tiny snapshot. On top of which the article says COVID is killing just under 50% of those dying from flu. Not a tiny fraction. The majority of their graphs compare COVID to all deaths in a typically Sun misreporting way.
All The Sun article does is offer support to the current containment policies. i.e. Look how bad it was before we did xyz (pretty fucking bad) and look how much it has improved (shitloads). Plus there is an added benefit in that social distancing etc is reducing the numbers dying from other infectious diseases
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman They ignore what the death rates were before their tiny snapshot. On top of which the article says COVID is killing just under 50% of those dying from flu. Not a tiny fraction. The majority of their graphs compare COVID to all deaths in a typically Sun misreporting way.
All The Sun article does is offer support to the current containment policies. i.e. Look how bad it was before we did xyz (pretty fucking bad) and look how much it has improved (shitloads). Plus there is an added benefit in that social distancing etc is reducing the numbers dying from other infectious diseases
The stats are widely reported in UK.
Latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed flu and pneumonia killed 1,013 people in England and Wales in the week up to August 7, compared to 152 patients who lost their lives to coronavirus. That's about a seventh.
Lots of factors at play, one of which is that UK medics have massively refined how they treat Covid. That said, numbers in ICU wards right down. I think I read somewhere that 50% of hospitals have none.
My take is that Covid just isn't that dangerous, at least for healthy people under 70.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman They ignore what the death rates were before their tiny snapshot. On top of which the article says COVID is killing just under 50% of those dying from flu. Not a tiny fraction. The majority of their graphs compare COVID to all deaths in a typically Sun misreporting way.
All The Sun article does is offer support to the current containment policies. i.e. Look how bad it was before we did xyz (pretty fucking bad) and look how much it has improved (shitloads). Plus there is an added benefit in that social distancing etc is reducing the numbers dying from other infectious diseases
This is the period of time (My green circle) that The Sun graph is covering.
h
I don't particularly care what policy UK govt is taking, not my fight, agree schools should re-open (i don't even know if they are closed).
I just really like graphs.
I found The Sun graph interesting. -
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
My take is that Covid just isn't that dangerous, at least for healthy people under 70.
Tell that to somebody who has had it. Such as this healthy 40-ish mate of mine, who described it thus...
Ok Covid-19, I'll put my hands up and say that was one hell of a fight. Seventeen straight days, six days on an isolation ward, four kilos lighter and - I'll admit it - I thought you had me at one point.
Only I had someone in my corner. I had the hardest fucking firm ever assembled behind me. I had the NHS. So this is a massive heartfelt THANK YOU to everyone who works at XXXX Hospital, XXXX. You saved my life. X
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@Kruse said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
My take is that Covid just isn't that dangerous, at least for healthy people under 70.
Tell that to somebody who has had it. Such as this healthy 40-ish mate of mine, who described it thus...
Ok Covid-19, I'll put my hands up and say that was one hell of a fight. Seventeen straight days, six days on an isolation ward, four kilos lighter and - I'll admit it - I thought you had me at one point.
Only I had someone in my corner. I had the hardest fucking firm ever assembled behind me. I had the NHS. So this is a massive heartfelt THANK YOU to everyone who works at XXXX Hospital, XXXX. You saved my life. X
My bad for using 'dangerous' ambiguously, as in it's dangerous to cross the road.
More correct to say that the risks to a healthy person under 70 are insignificant. So grant you that if you catch a huge viral load, or are unlucky enough to be genetically predisposed to catching it then it could take you out.
But the odds of that happening are very, very low.
Something which politicians in most places seem unable to explain to their electors.
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@Paekakboyz said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Kruse or the info coming out about issues post-recovery. Sure it's not everyone and obviously severity will vary, but to say it just isn't that dangerous...
See reply below. Statistically low risk. Studies regarding longer term impacts are self evidently speculative this early.
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@Rapido There seems a plausible argument that Covid mainly takes out the vulnerable and thus tends only to bring forward their death by as little as a few months. Such people are also the vulnerable for flu/pneumonia.
So excess deaths overall down because of deaths eralier in year, which would apply to flu.
Excess death graphs for UK regions suggest that the worse the excess owing to Covid in Q2 the futher below five year average now, at least in hospitals and care homes.
What I haven't seen reported is that excess deaths at home are still right up, and not decreasing much, if at all.
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@Winger said in Coronavirus - Overall:
But he was always came across as a strange nerdy type
He has Aspergers syndrome so would appear strange and nerdy to people who are unaware of how Aspergers manifests.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
My take is that Covid just isn't that dangerous, at least for healthy people under 70.
Not dangerous but can be debilitating.
Both me and the missus have had it in late March. Didn't affect us much at all - bit like a cold was starting and that was it.
However.....4 -6 weeks later I started feeling weak, listless with mild 'flu like symptoms almost every other day. I was diagnosed as having Post Viral Fatigue Syndrome which has taken me 3 months to get over. Can happen with any virus, according to the Doctor, but seems much more common with Covid for some reason.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
My take is that Covid just isn't that dangerous, at least for healthy people under 70.
Not dangerous but can be debilitating.
Both me and the missus have had it in late March. Didn't affect us much at all - bit like a cold was starting and that was it.
However.....4 -6 weeks later I started feeling weak, listless with mild 'flu like symptoms almost every other day. I was diagnosed as having Post Viral Fatigue Syndrome which has taken me 3 months to get over. Can happen with any virus, according to the Doctor, but seems much more common with Covid for some reason.
The effect of a new unrecognized virus?
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According to the GP, no-one really knows. Can happen with any virus apparently but seems more common with Covid.
There are indications some people's immune system reacts slightly differently with Covid and doesn't switch off when it should. This produce an excess of a chemical (cytotine?) which takes a good few weeks to flush out.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
My take is that Covid just isn't that dangerous, at least for healthy people under 70.
Not dangerous but can be debilitating.
Both me and the missus have had it in late March. Didn't affect us much at all - bit like a cold was starting and that was it.
However.....4 -6 weeks later I started feeling weak, listless with mild 'flu like symptoms almost every other day. I was diagnosed as having Post Viral Fatigue Syndrome which has taken me 3 months to get over. Can happen with any virus, according to the Doctor, but seems much more common with Covid for some reason.
It strikes me as quite like the flu. Many experience cold-like symptoms, but can be a lot more serious and kills the weak.
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Dr Zac Turner: 'I believe a person who refuses to be vaccinated should not be allowed to travel interstate or overseas, nor be allowed to travel on public transport without a face mask. And when it comes to the private sector, businesses could refuse these anti-vaxxers from visiting their retail outlets, gyms, movie cinemas, restaurants, bars or nightclubs.'
Fuck off fluffybunny.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Rapido There seems a plausible argument that Covid mainly takes out the vulnerable and thus tends only to bring forward their death by as little as a few months. Such people are also the vulnerable for flu/pneumonia.
So excess deaths overall down because of deaths eralier in year, which would apply to flu.
Excess death graphs for UK regions suggest that the worse the excess owing to Covid in Q2 the futher below five year average now, at least in hospitals and care homes.
What I haven't seen reported is that excess deaths at home are still right up, and not decreasing much, if at all.
Yeah. Maybe, maybe not.
No doubt. Some of the weak who might have died of influenza or pneumonia in the middle of a UK summer have already been knocked off in the spring by coronavirus. But that is the froth at the top of the pint.
Looking at excess mortality. Up to 10 days ago:
It looks good. A negative Z score of -2.44.
But look at Spain. They were also down below average at -2.85 at one stage after the first wave. But are back to +7.79
But. It's not inevitable that they have to go in the same directions.
But at this stage, I'm not seeing anything to sway my thinking from initial surge curbed, summer, then .... ?I read yesterday, but can't remember where, was mainstream like BBC, that theory is that covid (in Europe) has mutated to weaker but more infectious. Which is promising - and eventually probably inevitable.
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@ACT-Crusader said in Coronavirus - Overall:
So what’s the deal with France? They lifted hard restrictions a while back, and overnight had 2500+ new cases. Haven’t been following closely but they have been on a steep incline for the past two weeks going from around 500 to north of 2500.
So it’s been rising every day since. Yesterday 3,700 a new peak post their hard lockdown. And given the Tour is just around the corner and the world will be watching it will be interesting the news coming out.
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@ACT-Crusader said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@ACT-Crusader said in Coronavirus - Overall:
So what’s the deal with France? They lifted hard restrictions a while back, and overnight had 2500+ new cases. Haven’t been following closely but they have been on a steep incline for the past two weeks going from around 500 to north of 2500.
So it’s been rising every day since. Yesterday 3,700 a new peak post their hard lockdown. And given the Tour is just around the corner and the world will be watching it will be interesting the news coming out.
Deaths are running pretty flat though