Coronavirus - Overall
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo There was an interesting feature on The Detail on Sweden
A Swedish professor came out and said no, no of course we were never trying to go for herd immunity - worlds press completely wrong and that this was dangerously copied by UK / USA. Anyway we are law abiding people and don't need to have a lockdown enforced we have naturally self isolated.
Akl Uni epidemiologist effectively says well they would say that wouldn't they. Of course they were going for herd immunity but now they are back tracking because they are one of the worst failures in the world.
I'd ignore the musings of people who assert they know what people really mean when they say the exact opposite. Sweden knows what went wrong and it's largely nursing homes and large migrant families.
The elephant in the room.
Same in the UK.
And in the poorer parts of the UK multi-generational households of all ethnicities, hence the Wales and Scotland problem.
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This is an enlightening interview, it's an hour but it's good.
Speaker is Prof Sucharit Bakhdi. 74 year old microbiology expert living in Germany.
Talks about:
30,000 of the world's experts signed the Barrington Agreement, which is a strong disagreement with current policies and lockdowns.
Explains the difference between covid19 and the virus
The PCR test and it's limitations. He compares it with a breatho machine that will pick up 1 ml of vodka and then diagnose you as completely paralytic. Nobody would use that test for a diagnosis, only as supporting evidence for a diagnosis. Similarly, clearly died of a heart attack, but we found 1 ml of vodka, so death by alcohol poisoning
Not enough of the virus can live in your throat to infect someone.
Masks are more damaging.
This virus is in no way special except for its publicity.
Don't need vaccines, as our lymphocytes having been killing our own cells infiltrated with Coronavirus for centuries. We have adequate immunity.
Apparently the world guru of all this is John Yioannides (?) who just had a paper published 3 weeks ago condemning our current philosophy with this virus.
Simply, the death rate doesn't reach a statistically significant number to even be able to prove a vaccine works, let alone even bother to make one or bother. The disease is not deadly enough for under 70s or no comorbidities to even register as an epidemiological threatBasically the virus is Mark Carter and the authorities are bigging him up to be Richie McCaw!
Apparently big lawsuits against governments are in motion
A creditable seeming fellow speaking from the heart and sounding like he knows what he's talking about.
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@Siam said in Coronavirus - Overall:
This is an enlightening interview, it's an hour but it's good.
Speaker is Prof Sucharit Bakhdi. 74 year old microbiology expert living in Germany.
Talks about:
30,000 of the world's experts signed the Barrington Agreement, which is a strong disagreement with current policies and lockdowns.
Explains the difference between covid19 and the virus
The PCR test and it's limitations. He compares it with a breatho machine that will pick up 1 ml of vodka and then diagnose you as completely paralytic. Nobody would use that test for a diagnosis, only as supporting evidence for a diagnosis. Similarly, clearly died of a heart attack, but we found 1 ml of vodka, so death by alcohol poisoning
Not enough of the virus can live in your throat to infect someone.
Masks are more damaging.
This virus is in no way special except for its publicity.
Don't need vaccines, as our lymphocytes having been killing our own cells infiltrated with Coronavirus for centuries. We have adequate immunity.
Apparently the world guru of all this is John Yioannides (?) who just had a paper published 3 weeks ago condemning our current philosophy with this virus.
Simply, the death rate doesn't reach a statistically significant number to even be able to prove a vaccine works, let alone even bother to make one or bother. The disease is not deadly enough for under 70s or no comorbidities to even register as an epidemiological threatBasically the virus is Mark Carter and the authorities are bigging him up to be Richie McCaw!
Apparently big lawsuits against governments are in motion
A creditable seeming fellow speaking from the heart and sounding like he knows what he's talking about.
Thanks for the summary
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It all comes down to if you are ok for old people to die. If yes, then do nothing, if you want to protect your grandparents, war veterans etc then you need to take action.
Clearly the response in Australia/NZ has worked, we have a fraction of the dead the rest of the world has. Canada which is often compared to Australia have over 11000 people dead. That is a lot of loved ones gone.
I am very happy that we don't have this virus running rampant as there are plenty of people I love that would be at great risk.
I bet the 1.3 million people that have died wish their country had done what NZ did, just saying.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It all comes down to if you are ok for old people to die. If yes, then do nothing, if you want to protect your grandparents, war veterans etc then you need to take action.
Clearly the response in Australia/NZ has worked, we have a fraction of the dead the rest of the world has. Canada which is often compared to Australia have over 11000 people dead. That is a lot of loved ones gone.
I am very happy that we don't have this virus running rampant as there are plenty of people I love that would be at great risk.
I bet the 1.3 million people that have died wish their country had done what NZ did, just saying.
The top end estimate for flu related deaths in the USA is 61000 per year based on records since 2010. Its been 10 months since the first official covid19 death in the US and they have already surpassed 250000 deaths. With 2 months to go, Winter months, they could push to 300000. Harrowing.
That doesn't even begin to take into account all of the deaths and suffering of patients who need important medical treatment but aren't receiving it because of hospital delays related to covid19
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@Siam He makes a reasonable fist of presenting the argument for herd immunity but I think he over-reaches when down playing the seriousness of COVID. Too many fatalities for that to stick IMO.
Research science is notoriously disputative so the fact that there is a group of dissenting voices is to be expected but they are still the minority.
I don't give the Barrington Declaration much credence. Put out by a right wing libertarian group previously famous for being climate change deniers.
@canefan 61K p.a. is the top end as you say. The average number of flu related deaths is 32K . Looks likely US will exceed that ten fold but still we hear its only 'normal' flu.
Comes with living in the misinformation age I guess.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It all comes down to if you are ok for old people to die. If yes, then do nothing, if you want to protect your grandparents, war veterans etc then you need to take action.
Clearly the response in Australia/NZ has worked, we have a fraction of the dead the rest of the world has. Canada which is often compared to Australia have over 11000 people dead. That is a lot of loved ones gone.
I am very happy that we don't have this virus running rampant as there are plenty of people I love that would be at great risk.
I bet the 1.3 million people that have died wish their country had done what NZ did, just saying.
Comparing NZ/Oz to Europe/US is pointless. Had NZ had the same level of under the radar cases and been in the winter the responses it took wouldn't have worked.
In fact the policy choices in UK are quite a lot more complicated than it might seem. My hunch is that the scientists mistakenly thought Covid was a lot more dangerous than it turned out. So they chose to protect the NHS in order to save the thousands of under 60s they thought would get infected. That was at the cost of not protecting care homes.
Had they realised the true low level of fatality they would have been less concerned with overflow and ensured the elderly who were positive weren't let near care homes.
Not so much a case of not caring if old people die -- rather a case of thinking if people are going to die, do we prioritise those with forty years to live or those with perhaps five?
I'm just thankful it turned out so much better than it looked at one stage.
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You can only compare countries which either did or didn't close their borders.
That's a more accurate comparison than size of population.
IMHO
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Africa is maybe the key
COVID seems to be the virus of the affluent
"The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa."
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
COVID seems to be the virus of the affluent
"The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa."That really doesn't seem to be too hard to understand.
Old Africans? Average life expectancy males 62, females 65.
Those most at risk from Covid are already dead. I don't think that you can die twice so the covid death rate is going to have to be lower. FFS.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
I would give Roger Daltry or Pete Townsend credit for a more enlightening statement than that.
The older people are dead. That is why you have skewed numbers. Statistics and damn lies.
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
COVID seems to be the virus of the affluent
"The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa."That really doesn't seem to be too hard to understand.
Old Africans? Average life expectancy males 62, females 65.
Those most at risk from Covid are already dead. I don't think that you can die twice so the covid death rate is going to have to be lower. FFS.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
I would give Roger Daltry or Pete Townsend credit for a more inlightening statement than that.
The older people are dead. That is why you have skewed numbers. Statistics and damn lies.
Roy Cleveland Sullivan is more 'inlightening' than Daltry or Townsend
My point exactly, which was mooted earlier.
The people most at risk are those who've exceeded the Biblical 'three score and ten' who are being kept alive by drugs and machines.
We can't all be Dick Van Dyke FFS, as much as we want to be.
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Roy Cleveland Sullivan is more 'inlightening' than Daltry or Townsend
Ha. Knew about him. Minor typo but he certainly copped it. If you have been "struck down" 7 times you should probably move on. Shot himself in the end I think.
Yes, it is daft to compare some numbers across continents / countries. Very different demographics, geography, health systems, etc.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Siam He makes a reasonable fist of presenting the argument for herd immunity but I think he over-reaches when down playing the seriousness of COVID. Too many fatalities for that to stick IMO.
Research science is notoriously disputative so the fact that there is a group of dissenting voices is to be expected but they are still the minority.
I don't give the Barrington Declaration much credence. Put out by a right wing libertarian group previously famous for being climate change deniers.
@canefan 61K p.a. is the top end as you say. The average number of flu related deaths is 32K . Looks likely US will exceed that ten fold but still we hear its only 'normal' flu.
Comes with living in the misinformation age I guess.
Ah yes, the Jordan Peterson smear. Don't listen to what they're saying just smear them with a bad sounding label from the outset.
I have a dream that scientists will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by their political leanings, but by the content of their scientific observations. 😉
Once again we have very real reservations about the inconsistent handling of this virus, things we can feel are not right. And at every genuine question, (such as, explain why PCR tests are the gold standard? why no young deaths? Why do scientist's messages contradict those of politicians?), you get smeared and dismissed as being naieve, or dumb or "right wing" - whatever that means.
When all you want is a satisfactory answer.
Attack the messenger everytime
Fascinating stuff
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Africa is maybe the key
COVID seems to be the virus of the affluent
"The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa."
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What's unreasonable about this, and what of the credentials of those conveying this message?
And lastly, what other means is there to communicate important opinion that runs counter to popular politics and media?
The Great Barrington Declaration
The Great Barrington Declaration – As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
We can't all be Dick Van Dyke FFS, as much as we want to be.
Not sure about that last sentence. I literally know 3 Richard Van Dijks.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It all comes down to if you are ok for old people to die. If yes, then do nothing, if you want to protect your grandparents, war veterans etc then you need to take action.
Clearly the response in Australia/NZ has worked, we have a fraction of the dead the rest of the world has. Canada which is often compared to Australia have over 11000 people dead. That is a lot of loved ones gone.
I am very happy that we don't have this virus running rampant as there are plenty of people I love that would be at great risk.
I bet the 1.3 million people that have died wish their country had done what NZ did, just saying.
I agree with enough of this post to give you an upvote (I say, like my upvote holds any sort of water ....)
Undoubtedly, the Australia / NZ reaction has worked. But what is rarely touched upon is a the feasibility of this reaction in other countries. From a political point of view, you'd require each of Europe to agree to shut down their entire countries & in the US, the same at a state level. You really can't say in the UK at least, "I wish we'd done what NZ did". There are too many other factors.
Your last sentence is a very emotive one. But I actually don't think its accurate at all. The amount of old people in the UK out and about with the narrative of "don't lockdown and ruin the country for me" is astonishing.