Coronavirus - Overall
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It all comes down to if you are ok for old people to die. If yes, then do nothing, if you want to protect your grandparents, war veterans etc then you need to take action.
Clearly the response in Australia/NZ has worked, we have a fraction of the dead the rest of the world has. Canada which is often compared to Australia have over 11000 people dead. That is a lot of loved ones gone.
I am very happy that we don't have this virus running rampant as there are plenty of people I love that would be at great risk.
I bet the 1.3 million people that have died wish their country had done what NZ did, just saying.
The top end estimate for flu related deaths in the USA is 61000 per year based on records since 2010. Its been 10 months since the first official covid19 death in the US and they have already surpassed 250000 deaths. With 2 months to go, Winter months, they could push to 300000. Harrowing.
That doesn't even begin to take into account all of the deaths and suffering of patients who need important medical treatment but aren't receiving it because of hospital delays related to covid19
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@Siam He makes a reasonable fist of presenting the argument for herd immunity but I think he over-reaches when down playing the seriousness of COVID. Too many fatalities for that to stick IMO.
Research science is notoriously disputative so the fact that there is a group of dissenting voices is to be expected but they are still the minority.
I don't give the Barrington Declaration much credence. Put out by a right wing libertarian group previously famous for being climate change deniers.
@canefan 61K p.a. is the top end as you say. The average number of flu related deaths is 32K . Looks likely US will exceed that ten fold but still we hear its only 'normal' flu.
Comes with living in the misinformation age I guess.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It all comes down to if you are ok for old people to die. If yes, then do nothing, if you want to protect your grandparents, war veterans etc then you need to take action.
Clearly the response in Australia/NZ has worked, we have a fraction of the dead the rest of the world has. Canada which is often compared to Australia have over 11000 people dead. That is a lot of loved ones gone.
I am very happy that we don't have this virus running rampant as there are plenty of people I love that would be at great risk.
I bet the 1.3 million people that have died wish their country had done what NZ did, just saying.
Comparing NZ/Oz to Europe/US is pointless. Had NZ had the same level of under the radar cases and been in the winter the responses it took wouldn't have worked.
In fact the policy choices in UK are quite a lot more complicated than it might seem. My hunch is that the scientists mistakenly thought Covid was a lot more dangerous than it turned out. So they chose to protect the NHS in order to save the thousands of under 60s they thought would get infected. That was at the cost of not protecting care homes.
Had they realised the true low level of fatality they would have been less concerned with overflow and ensured the elderly who were positive weren't let near care homes.
Not so much a case of not caring if old people die -- rather a case of thinking if people are going to die, do we prioritise those with forty years to live or those with perhaps five?
I'm just thankful it turned out so much better than it looked at one stage.
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You can only compare countries which either did or didn't close their borders.
That's a more accurate comparison than size of population.
IMHO
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Africa is maybe the key
COVID seems to be the virus of the affluent
"The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa."
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
COVID seems to be the virus of the affluent
"The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa."That really doesn't seem to be too hard to understand.
Old Africans? Average life expectancy males 62, females 65.
Those most at risk from Covid are already dead. I don't think that you can die twice so the covid death rate is going to have to be lower. FFS.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
I would give Roger Daltry or Pete Townsend credit for a more enlightening statement than that.
The older people are dead. That is why you have skewed numbers. Statistics and damn lies.
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
COVID seems to be the virus of the affluent
"The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa."That really doesn't seem to be too hard to understand.
Old Africans? Average life expectancy males 62, females 65.
Those most at risk from Covid are already dead. I don't think that you can die twice so the covid death rate is going to have to be lower. FFS.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
I would give Roger Daltry or Pete Townsend credit for a more inlightening statement than that.
The older people are dead. That is why you have skewed numbers. Statistics and damn lies.
Roy Cleveland Sullivan is more 'inlightening' than Daltry or Townsend
My point exactly, which was mooted earlier.
The people most at risk are those who've exceeded the Biblical 'three score and ten' who are being kept alive by drugs and machines.
We can't all be Dick Van Dyke FFS, as much as we want to be.
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Roy Cleveland Sullivan is more 'inlightening' than Daltry or Townsend
Ha. Knew about him. Minor typo but he certainly copped it. If you have been "struck down" 7 times you should probably move on. Shot himself in the end I think.
Yes, it is daft to compare some numbers across continents / countries. Very different demographics, geography, health systems, etc.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Siam He makes a reasonable fist of presenting the argument for herd immunity but I think he over-reaches when down playing the seriousness of COVID. Too many fatalities for that to stick IMO.
Research science is notoriously disputative so the fact that there is a group of dissenting voices is to be expected but they are still the minority.
I don't give the Barrington Declaration much credence. Put out by a right wing libertarian group previously famous for being climate change deniers.
@canefan 61K p.a. is the top end as you say. The average number of flu related deaths is 32K . Looks likely US will exceed that ten fold but still we hear its only 'normal' flu.
Comes with living in the misinformation age I guess.
Ah yes, the Jordan Peterson smear. Don't listen to what they're saying just smear them with a bad sounding label from the outset.
I have a dream that scientists will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by their political leanings, but by the content of their scientific observations. 😉
Once again we have very real reservations about the inconsistent handling of this virus, things we can feel are not right. And at every genuine question, (such as, explain why PCR tests are the gold standard? why no young deaths? Why do scientist's messages contradict those of politicians?), you get smeared and dismissed as being naieve, or dumb or "right wing" - whatever that means.
When all you want is a satisfactory answer.
Attack the messenger everytime
Fascinating stuff
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Africa is maybe the key
COVID seems to be the virus of the affluent
"The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25.
Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa."
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What's unreasonable about this, and what of the credentials of those conveying this message?
And lastly, what other means is there to communicate important opinion that runs counter to popular politics and media?
The Great Barrington Declaration
The Great Barrington Declaration – As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
We can't all be Dick Van Dyke FFS, as much as we want to be.
Not sure about that last sentence. I literally know 3 Richard Van Dijks.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It all comes down to if you are ok for old people to die. If yes, then do nothing, if you want to protect your grandparents, war veterans etc then you need to take action.
Clearly the response in Australia/NZ has worked, we have a fraction of the dead the rest of the world has. Canada which is often compared to Australia have over 11000 people dead. That is a lot of loved ones gone.
I am very happy that we don't have this virus running rampant as there are plenty of people I love that would be at great risk.
I bet the 1.3 million people that have died wish their country had done what NZ did, just saying.
I agree with enough of this post to give you an upvote (I say, like my upvote holds any sort of water ....)
Undoubtedly, the Australia / NZ reaction has worked. But what is rarely touched upon is a the feasibility of this reaction in other countries. From a political point of view, you'd require each of Europe to agree to shut down their entire countries & in the US, the same at a state level. You really can't say in the UK at least, "I wish we'd done what NZ did". There are too many other factors.
Your last sentence is a very emotive one. But I actually don't think its accurate at all. The amount of old people in the UK out and about with the narrative of "don't lockdown and ruin the country for me" is astonishing.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
We can't all be Dick Van Dyke FFS, as much as we want to be.
Not sure about that last sentence. I literally know 3 Richard Van Dijks.
There's only one Dick Van Dyke
89 years old
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Check this out as a shining example of the Lockdown strategy being quite simply the best way forward:
South Australia, 8 months covid free. One of the least affected places in the region/western world. A covid free life since April.
Monday about 1pm word gets out, (TV radio, other) that a medi hotel worker has tested positive in Adelaide. First case ever it feels like. Then somehow a family of 15 is also positive and apparently we've gone from none to 17.
Tuesday, apparently 2 more or some such and they say the medi hotel guy was working for cash at a pizza place. Now he's probably spread it so anyone near that pizza joint from Nov 6 to 16th must get tested. Adelaide tests tens of thousands of people. They line up for 4 hours voluntarily, in 30+ degrees
WA, Qld, Tas, NT all scream "lepper" and SA residents are now persona non grata. Some find out about the "turn back or mandatory 14 days quarantine" on the plane at 30,000 feet (fuck you snowy and mach if I've got that wrong ) en route, interstate. Then we have the absurd photos of a father, having travelled on the flight doomed because of a press conference timing, not allowed to hug or touch his 3 year old daughter, (presumably to save him from killing his only daughter with a kiss). They're separated by those queue divider ribbons in airports and banks.
Under "sound" lockdown measures the government forbids a man to hug his kid, on the basis of an infected state supervised quarantine worker and 22 cases in one part of Adelaide, where he's never been.
We all go to bed a mixture of the novelty and the dread at what 22 cases actually means. There are frowns and worry in everyone
Wednesday morning no cases overnight. Phew
Wednesday about noon there is only one conversation in the whole of South Australia:
6 day lockdown starts at 12:01am.
It's a full on lockdown too. Way bigger than before, for about a fortnight in March.
The message is clear - nobody anywhere outside their home for any reason.
No shops. No takeaways. Only supermarkets, butchers, bottle shops and chemists as retail options. No leaving home. No exercise outside. 1 person per house per day for shopping. Essential workers etc as usual. No construction. No builders or tradies (they've never stopped even in intial lockdown). No factories except food. Many huge companies that have never closed before ever.
Panic buying ensues on Wednesday arvo. Cops at supermarkets keeping the peace. Of course bog rolls were depleted to zero.
Strong lockdown for 6 days. "Circuit Breaker" they call it
After 8 months of nothing and then on day 3 of the working week, in the lead up to Christmas everyone, basically, must shut up their work and hunker inside while the authorities rid us all of this existential threat to society and humanity.
And all the while the worker thinks "fuck Do I get paid for this week? Will they take this out of my holiday pay?". Everyone is on edge. Small businesses, cashing in on the desperately welcome Christmas trade have to organise to close up for a week. The big boys, who run mills and factories 24/7 have to shut and deal with that in a time-demand industry amidst an already fluffybunny of a year!
And all because a fucking quarantine worker left each day at quarantine to serve pizza in the evening. Or, is it, because the fucking quarantine bosses gave no thought to community transmiussion of their workers after hours?
Thursday. The new normal, for 6 days. Absolutely deserted streets. No activity. No people. No commerce. It's 35 degrees and you just know there are parents at home, a day before they were at work, counting down the 6 days.
We all are. The conversations are about pizza man. The mood is resigned and the dread is there. You know the dread. Everybody knows the dread. Nobody's betting against that 6 days gets extended to 14 more.
Then Friday, today, comes. At about noon, a customer, all a flutter, asks "have you heard the latest?".
No.
"The pizza guy lied. The lockdown is over and it's all a mistake"
And as of writing, my synopsis rings true. There are numerous Youtube vids of the Premier stating that because a bloke lied, the lockdown is being lifted (and reduced of course) at midnight on Saturday, and damn the britches of that bloody liar who only shopped at the pizza joint, not worked there.
The lead stories are that no prosection of the liar is possible under the law (yeah, like politicians are going to make lying a prosecutiuonal offence!)
There's the current lockdown strategy in all it's glory.
Millions of dollars of business, countless neurons of stress, all made better because we discovered that ol' mate lied. Case closed. Crisis averted. Death count - zero. Thanks guardians of humanity who saved us from a death that never existed.
Incredible portrayal of confidence and empathy in conveying an absolutely necessary strategy where huge sacrifices must be made at 12 hours notice is all completely undone 2 days later because not one of these confident, empathetic leaders thought to ask the fucken pizza joint owner if fuckwit actually worked there!
And apparently thousands of disease and virus experts say that lockdowns aren't necessary.
And I've just lived through a totally necessary one that ended in a farce.
Oh, and to the apologists whose reasoning is, well look the response led to the best outcome as of 12:01am Sunday, you're out of lockdown earlier than expected; fuck off, the whole situation was started by an authority that inflicted the damage, unnecessarily scared the fuck out of everyone and then turned off the tap when it suited.
It's akin to a bloke chopping off your hand and then warning about how lucky you were not to get your arm cut off, as was the contingency plan.
I'm sick to death of the erosion of basic common sense with the only concession being it could be worse...it already fucking is.
So when thousands of disease and virus experts publically state the current covid narrative is a self serving farce, I feel it only due to ask, "please elaborate".
But that's not shared by the vocal who simply smear or shout down the dissenting voices. But never from a reasoned argument. Never do they use science to refute the challenging science. It's always a smear about something subjective, or better yet immutable.
PCR testing has been responsible for every single lockdown and, therefore responsible for every single hardship of each individual since April. All our policies are totally determined by a throat and nose swab, like it was as good a s diabetes test for example. We've decided on universal economic ruin solely based on a snot swab. Airline industry gone because it all comes down to the big cotton bud. Is that good enough? My microbiolgist tells me that PCR test picks up all or part of the gene and that I could have some novo coronavirus 2 fragments in my throat for months after I'm free of the virus but I'll be whisked off to 14 days no questions asked. I've believed all along "are we sure these tests are sweet, because we're fucking a lot of people over based on these tests", and then my bloke tells me the medical community would never ever, solely diagnose with a PCR. It's like finding alcohol in every dead body and confirming that drinking caused their death.
We need heaps more discussion and viewpoints on our current, "new normal" pandemic. Questioning the age/death statistics cannot be summarily dismissed as "you don't care about granny". It's been the basis of irrefutable economic and future hardship. It's what we've all killed our kids futures over. We've made dead sure they won't live as comfortably as we have. All in 8 irrational months! Frankly, we've gone to far into destruction to be virtue signalling that saving 80 year olds is worth all this grief.
We can't be discouraging or smearing questions about lockdown logic, we need to expose the Barrington declaration and probe as to what they're claiming.
Or we all fret in lockdown limbo for the next how many years -
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
We can't all be Dick Van Dyke FFS, as much as we want to be.
Not sure about that last sentence. I literally know 3 Richard Van Dijks.
There's only one Dick Van Dyke
89 years old
One too many.