Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan what is interesting is some of the other countries that have been smashed (death per mill)
Czechia & Belgium are at the top, Mexico's numbers look to only recently starting to tail off, but they have long been seen as one of the Obesity capitals.
I know when I spoke to my mate in Prague back in October, he was extremely critical of how relaxed they had let thing go very recently, and the numbers were starting to get out of control then.
So multifactorial then
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Sounds like the KFC girl can form a decent argument that she thought she was doing the right thing. Text messages were shown on TV and were apparently ambiguous according to Mrs CF, and I can believe that. The other guy has no such out, he's just a selfish fluffybunny
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@canefan I didnt see that bit but they were talking about the cultural and language barriers...
I dont buy it, these people have been living in NZ for the last year, know what is going on, so they are choosing to do things how they do them (jeez you only need to watch Border Patrol or whatever it is to see how many people try to use language as a reason they had all those seeds and meat products in thier suitcase)
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan I didnt see that bit but they were talking about the cultural and language barriers...
I dont buy it, these people have been living in NZ for the last year, know what is going on, so they are choosing to do things how they do them (jeez you only need to watch Border Patrol or whatever it is to see how many people try to use language as a reason they had all those seeds and meat products in thier suitcase)
It was more about the ambiguity of the instructions. She was not a close contact. Interesting example, someone we know was considered a contact+ (whatever that means)of the Kmart cell. They were told they didn't need testing and didn't need to tell anyone about it. This person chose to inform his workmates. You either are a contact or not surely?
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@canefan I wasnt talking about that aspect, was another piece on the news I was referrign to.
I guess to give some of these people complaining leeway about the messaging, Papatoetoe HIgh have done a great job getting thier students and most of thier families on board with the testing (more than once) maybe the Govt. can learn a little from how they got the messaging out to a high % of the people.
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Honestly speaking, I am starting to struggle to see the NZ way out of this.
This is not to criticise the approach, if the whole world has done what NZ had done (effectively) then it'd be in a much better situation. However it didn't. Up here, we know and have learned to live with it. The lockdowns have sucked, the economy is in tatters, and we've had bloody Brexit in the middle of it! However, right now, we as a country actually see where we (hope we) are going. The vaccine has seriously kicked in, number of 80+ in ICU is in single digits, a very cautious open up plan is public. Yesterdays numbers were the lowest in cases for 6 months, lowest in deaths for 5. Bear in mind the UK usually loses 15,000 people per flu season which is 100 per day. We aren't far off that in Covid terms now, after flu being down 95%. Subsequently, you can argue that from a health perspective, we aren't far off back to normal.
There is a genuine excitement in the air of coming out of this and the country working on it's new reality. Who knows what it will bring? Sunak's budget tomorrow will be quite revealing. I'm hoping for fat-tax, slight increase in corporation tax (with offsets for job supply) & big tech online sales tax changes. I'm sure I'll get hit in the pocket in other ways as well, such is life.
But what is NZ's roadmap? When will my parents be vaccinated (70 & 73 respectively)? When will they feel safe enough to get on a plane to come here and see their grandkids (who miss them terribly) and their son who fears he may never see at least one of them again. When I'm vaccinated (which will likely be in < 3 months) will I be able to visit NZ with my family (logistics of school age kids and 2 week quarantine)?
I recognise that only as a NZ citizen & secondary tax payer my views are beneath NZ residents. But I hear real frustration from my parents over the handling of the whole thing, and the closing off of the country. Dad genuinely thinks in a few months we'll be out 'n about whilst he will he be locked down in the BoP due to an outbreak of 3-4 people in South Auckland. And obviously thinks that is a roadmap to disaster. It feels to me that Ardern and co think that its' best to vaccinate the country and then continue with the quarantine for quite some time. I'm not sure that's a roadmap to anywhere.
I acknowledge my Dad is a curmudgeonly old bastard at the best of times btw. But what is the roadmap? When can I visit next without quarantine, when will my parents be allowed to leave?
Sorry for the rant ... a quick question I had for the TSF wisdom sort of went nuts ...
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I hope they have a great plan for rolling out the vaccine in South Auckland in double quick time. Pretty sure the entire country would be happy to wait so they could get jabbed alongside essential workers, border staff etc, cos this whole shut down the country for a case or two is a terrible long term strategy, both for the economy and mental health.
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@mokey said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I hope they have a great plan for rolling out the vaccine in South Auckland in double quick time. Pretty sure the entire country would be happy to wait so they could get jabbed alongside essential workers, border staff etc, cos this whole shut down the country for a case or two is a terrible long term strategy, both for the economy and mental health.
I hope they have a plan too. I'm not sure they do though
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It feels to me that Ardern and co think that its' best to vaccinate the country and then continue with the quarantine for quite some time.
I think the lack of a (public?) plan doesn't help, but I don't think the lack of a detailed road map implies that we'll still stick with quarantine after widespread UK-like vaccinations either.
In some ways, while we finish a wider vaccine rollout over our 2021 winter, maybe we learn from the lessons of the UK and co in reopening borders/an economy/wider society as you're going into your summer months, while we've still kept unemployment at circa 5%, etc, in NZ in the interim.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I recognise that only as a NZ citizen & secondary tax payer my views are beneath NZ residents.
I think that's overly depressive! But I have been intrigued over the last year that - as a sweeping generalisation (and with 2- 3 exceptions that immediately spring to mind ) - the strongest critics on TSF of the NZ approach are those already living offshore. While most TSF'ers onshore are generally more content with how things are going in Godzone.
For a while now I've been mulling over what that means, if anything at all. Perhaps that most of us have already wisely chosen the places in the world that are best suited to us and our worldviews? Maybe.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I acknowledge my Dad is a curmudgeonly old bastard at the best of times btw. But what is the roadmap? When can I visit next without quarantine, when will my parents be allowed to leave?
A pedantic point. For all the excitement about Australia briefly opening one way travel bubbles, people are free to leave NZ at any time and don't need approval like our friends from across the ditch (https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia). Though it's getting back in which is the rationed problem for now...
I think it's fair to say that a genuine two -way travel bubble with Oz was hoped for sooner, and that demand for MIQ places from people coming home has been stronger than anticipated, certainly post-Christmas.
Vaccine passports will have to come into the global and NZ travel mix at some stage soon. The dilemma will be how far each nation can trust a document and from where. The Russian fisherman who had been "isolated and tested" before leaving Russia for NZ last October being an salutatory reminder there... not that it should have been much of a surprise.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Dad genuinely thinks in a few months we'll be out 'n about whilst he will he be locked down in the BoP due to an outbreak of 3-4 people in South Auckland.
I think if the powers-that-be weren't already aware of the risk of creating a Boy Who Cried Wolf effect from going straight to Level 3 and only finding a handful of cases, I think they certainly will be if this week goes well healthwise. For now, I'm just hoping that none of the Friday gym-goers were infected and then went to the Parker fight or Six60...
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If there are vaccine passports, I can anticipate non/short quarantine travel based on testing. No need to have a 2 weeks quarantine if you are vaccinated, coming from a low risk country and testing negative at departure and/or arrival.
Would rather see NZ continue as is than attempt to rush back into the old normal. Fact is, apart from a few blips, they have done very well. If they miraculously get out of this one with no extensions and can avoid future lockdowns till vaccinations are more widespread then they have done very, very well.
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Great answers / comments - some questions.
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I think the lack of a (public?) plan doesn't help, but I don't think the lack of a detailed road map implies that we'll still stick with quarantine after widespread UK-like vaccinations either.
I don't agree with that. You can't find any official government postings anywhere on when this will end. This implies to me that it will continue long beyond when countries hit hardest have opened up. Boris has said 21st June we are fully open. That's only 3 months away ... not much personal international travel is booked < 3months in advance.
It would obviously be silly to allow free travel between UK / NZ from this date given that the virus will still be prevalent in the UK then, but you'd at least expect some sort of acknowledgment.
In some ways, while we finish a wider vaccine rollout over our 2021 winter, maybe we learn from the lessons of the UK and co in reopening borders/an economy/wider society as you're going into your summer months, while we've still kept unemployment at circa 5%, etc, in NZ in the interim.
Indeed. We may well be the guinea pigs for you guys to see how it goes. Not sure what your point is re unemployment tho.
I think that's overly depressive! But I have been intrigued over the last year that - as a sweeping generalisation (and with 2- 3 exceptions that immediately spring to mind ) - the strongest critics on TSF of the NZ approach are those already living offshore. While most TSF'ers onshore are generally more content with how things are going in Godzone.
For a while now I've been mulling over what that means, if anything at all. Perhaps that most of us have already wisely chosen the places in the world that are best suited to us and our worldviews? Maybe.
I would say it's the opposite! The TSF view is more negative on NZ by those in NZ than I'd expect! Although that perhaps is because it's a clear contrast to the Jacinda loving media which means she is not being properly held to account for the govt failings.
I also make no secret that my above rant is more about my own thoughts/things, not what may be best for the general NZ population.
A pedantic point. For all the excitement about Australia briefly opening one way travel bubbles, people are free to leave NZ at any time and don't need approval like our friends from across the ditch (https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia). Though it's getting back in which is the rationed problem for now...
I've not looked at it, but my dad is adamant he is not allowed to leave NZ. My left wing sister also says as much.
I think it's fair to say that a genuine two -way travel bubble with Oz was hoped for sooner, and that demand for MIQ places from people coming home has been stronger than anticipated, certainly post-Christmas.
Vaccine passports will have to come into the global and NZ travel mix at some stage soon. The dilemma will be how far each nation can trust a document and from where. The Russian fisherman who had been "isolated and tested" before leaving Russia for NZ last October being an salutatory reminder there... not that it should have been much of a surprise.
Indeed. Although the UK should be ok here. If it's not, then diplomatically that could be a large issue.
I think if the powers-that-be weren't already aware of the risk of creating a Boy Who Cried Wolf effect from going straight to Level 3 and only finding a handful of cases, I think they certainly will be if this week goes well healthwise. For now, I'm just hoping that none of the Friday gym-goers were infected and then went to the Parker fight or Six60...
You'd hope so. But it would mean the would need to be properly held to account, which Ive seen very little of so far ...
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
When Covid first appeared 12 months ago NZ's ICU capacity was 173. By April this increased to 330 and by July 552. I'm not sure what has happened since.
Similarly withy respirators. Don't know current numbers but I do know from a RNZ The Detail podcast that we purchased (medical term) a shitload last year. We also developed a methodology for having one ventilator support multiple patients
Experience from the UK suggests ventilators are needed less and less as Covid treatments are refined. Recovery rates have improved significantly as well.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan I'm told that didn't happen. What happened was they had excess vaccine and sent out an email to GP's and more turned up than there was excess.
So why the sudden unscheduled need to get people in for the jab? Mrs CF's sister got the call early Saturday evening with an offer to have the first shot immediately, no prior warning. That isn't evidence of a cohesive plan to me
Depends on the vaccine. The Pfizer one can't be stored in a fridge like a normal vaccine and needs to be used quite quickly.
Standard practice in the UK for people to be called at short notice to use any spare doses - it's baked into the planning to get as many people vaccinated as possible. E.g. 1,000 people called and vaccinated within 48 hours of spare box of vaccine being delivered to a Medical Centre.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I don't agree with that. You can't find any official government postings anywhere on when this will end. This implies to me that it will continue long beyond when countries hit hardest have opened up. Boris has said 21st June we are fully open. That's only 3 months away ... not much personal international travel is booked < 3months in advance.
And if a new variant appears in one part of the globe, I wonder if Boris sticks to that line in the sand of "fully open". I hope he;s right and I wish him all the best. Just that planning three and a half months ahead has been as much use as crystal ball gazing in the wider covid environment. I wonder if some of the lack of a detailed public plan is to avoid over-promising and under delivering.
I saw something on LinkedIn from one of the consultancies suggesting one big hurdle for international tourism will be travel insurers being prepared to cover Covid related risks again.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Indeed. We may well be the guinea pigs for you guys to see how it goes. Not sure what your point is re unemployment tho.
That NZ has mostly weathered the worst of the economic and employment expectations, so we're in a great position if we can get the transition to opening right.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I've not looked at it, but my dad is adamant he is not allowed to leave NZ. My left wing sister also says as much.
They're wrong. It's mainly practical issues of how (very) expensive the flight out is, do they want/can they get travel insurance cover, and how long until they can get an MIQ spot to return.
While the official advice is "do not travel", it doesn't go as far as requiring approval: https://covid19.govt.nz/travel-and-the-border/leaving-new-zealand/
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I would say it's the opposite! The TSF view is more negative on NZ by those in NZ than I'd expect! Although that perhaps is because it's a clear contrast to the Jacinda loving media which means she is not being properly held to account for the govt failings.
There's definitely a group of us onshore on TSF who grouch about some of the specific decisions, me included. I'm thinking more about views toward the overarching NZ approach. So far your post has had likes and a reply of "100" from who I'd have anticipated. You and TeWaio are in the UK (?), Voodoo in Oz, plus Duluth and No Quarter (I think) in NZ. I'm anticipating a couple more names will join you soon
TSF is a lot more thoughtful, and oscillates much less wildly than the remnants of NZ journalism though. We also feel like a good counterpoint to most of NZ Twitter's commentary.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
But I hear real frustration from my parents over the handling of the whole thing, and the closing off of the country. Dad genuinely thinks in a few months we'll be out 'n about whilst he will he be locked down in the BoP due to an outbreak of 3-4 people in South Auckland.
I'm curious about the comments about your Dad. Those of us living in the Bay have had about seven and a half weeks in Level 4 or Level 3 in the last year. I'm very envious of where the UK is in their vaccination programme, but it feels a bit early to be envious of the likely lockdown situation in the two countries? Those I chat to in the UK seem to see it differently to your Dad. The grass is always greener on the other side, perhaps.
Aucklanders and the hospitality tourism will genuinely differ, but those of us in places like the Western Bay have had an okay ride on the whole and by global standards. Even if Baron would vehemently disagree with me
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
And if a new variant appears in one part of the globe, I wonder if Boris sticks to that line in the sand of "fully open". I hope he;s right and I wish him all the best. Just that planning three and a half months ahead has been as much use as crystal ball gazing in the wider covid environment. I wonder if some of the lack of a detailed public plan is to avoid over-promising and under delivering.
Boris has been very clear that things may well change at each stage of the re-opening. They are being really cautious after last year's problems. There's a lot of concern that the success of the vaccine roll-out might breed complacency.
I have to say I look at the complaints from people in NZ and smile - compared to here, NZ has had minimal disruption and a pretty normal life.
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I shudder to think what it has been like for people in the NH with significant death tolls and repeated lockdowns. You can palpably feel the mental exhaustion of a lot of Aucklander's al Lockdown 3.2 and we have had such a light let off compared to those overseas.
I do believe it has been the fact that we had a (poor weather-wise) summer of life as near normal as anywhere on earth that has made the last three weeks such a ball ache for a lot of people. The end is in sight it seems then whammy. This contributes to the anger felt by a majority towards the 'offenders' in the latest cluster - although I do wonder how many of them could have been caught out in exactly the same way but for the roll of the dice i.e. the majority of the team of 5 Million have been skipping practice and not following their diet plan.
I think there is a plan by the NZ govt. Deal with this current outbreak and any subsequent ones as we have successfully in the past while inoculating those that work at the borders and their close contacts to make it even harder for Covid to enter the country. Then open up travel bubbles. Oz and the Sth Pacific probably I'm guessing Q3. I can then see this being extended to places like Singapore which already allows entry from NZ without the need for quarantine.
Progressively roll out the vaccine to the general population over Q3/4. What happens with international travel isn't for one country to decide.
The doomsayers about NZ's approach have been proven wrong on almost every point to date. Unemployment isn't where they predicted, the economy hasn't tanked, we are not in the depths of depression, mental illness isn't on the rise. Undoubtedly some industry's and individuals are doing it really tough and as I said I think everyone is over 'it' Have we been lucky? Yes? Could we have done better? Certainly in some ways. But it is not all down to dumb luck. We are more fortunate than 99% of the people on the planet because we have followed a plan that has largely worked.
These last couple of weeks have been tough for me. My partners mother died during Level 3. We were lucky enough to bury her under Level 3, then her Dad was diagnosed three days later with a massive cancer wrapped around his spine and is in hospital unlikely to come out and no one can even visit. It sucks for her, but it's been much worse for a lot of other people and it would suck if we had never even heard of Covid. I'm not looking for sympathy I honestly believe that tough as things may be for people here in NZ we need to take stock and get some perspective.
Plus use the covid app and do what we know is right.
Apologies for rant
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@donsteppa I’ll respond a bit later but don’t think I’m
Being critical of NZ - far from it. The problems it has on the back of Covid are superb ones to have!I’m just genuinely curious as to the plan to get out as it affects me greatly from a personal point of view.
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Some of the frustration does come from all of our differing circumstances as @MajorRage has said. Those with sick or elderly parents are going to feel differently about travel than some one like me that spent 30 years traveling and has no interest in doing much more. My sister is in Aus and hasn't seen my father (who is in his eighties) for over 2 years, whereas I see him every couple of days as he lives just down the road.
It's not "I'm alright Jack" but the comments about the greater good and how things are done sensibly (but with some compassion) that seem to be a difficult balance to find. I'm nowhere near Auckland but we are still lumped into level 3. There are far more sensible boundaries to use but we have to abide by the rules even if they aren't very practical.