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@antipodean great example of how the NEM operates when conditions are right: big profits are there to be made when the opportunity presents.
You can see more detail about that particular day here:
And here is the more technical analysis:
The end of that second article outlines some of the major reasons, but my summary:
It is critical that the interconnector was not working as usual, and local gas generation was lowballing. Demand wasn't particularly high and capacity was available. The market saw an opportunity for profit, and took it.
The QLD government has stepped in the last year or so to prevent generator gaming by telling their guys to quit pissing around; a luxury when you hold the leash.
But are we going to revert all generators to public ownership? might be a good time to do it as interest rates are so low.
More storage could have helped. Particularly local storage in the form of consumer-grade batteries as a Virtual Power Plant (VPP) which the SA Liberal government is supporting right now. A working interconnector would be better, allowing the market to operate with the usual level of competition that keeps wholesale prices around 9c / kWh
As a side note: only 30MW of Hornsdale battery is available to the market as delivery, because the other ~100MW is for FCAS which is another ballgame entirely, and critical to grid stability when bigger generators trip units or connectors entirely.
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@antipodean off the topic of climate change, and onto the topic of networks for a second: the same site did a piece on the interconnector failures on August 25
Lighting strike on one of the QLD-NSW interconnectors was a factor, setting off a set of events as the failsafes tried to maintain frequency and volume into the NEM.
Good thing it was a Saturday. Big, complex systems tripping off at peak time business days is not cool.
Given we spent so much to gold plate the network in the first place, its a shame the infrastructure is still vulnerable in some ways.
It operates above 99% reliability, mind.
https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/electricity/electricity-system/reliability
That last 0.002% is very expensive to reach - building a third interconnector per NEM state would be tens of millions and consumers would bear the brunt. The fixed cost of networks are already responsible for a significant part of consumer and business bills:
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NTA said:
And here is the more technical analysis:
Interesting and insightful article, cheers.
The change to a five minute settlement in a few years may help, but by then we'll have spent a fortune on additional capacity and energy prices.
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antipodean said:
Interesting and insightful article, cheers.
No worries. I'm in the process of building my first modelling for a solar/battery site we have at work. So many moving parts and guys like these authors are fucking ninja masters.
antipodean said:
The change to a five minute settlement in a few years may help, but by then we'll have spent a fortune on additional capacity and energy prices.
Yep. As one of the ninjas I know has said: the NEM isn't broken by any means. It could just use some improvements.
The price of integrating newer technology into the market is going to be key. "Smart grid" is a term that gets thrown around, and with demand-response being a key aspect, being able to respond to market events and grid failures is a key.
Renewables can continue to drop in implementation cost BUT at the end of the day someone still needs to make money in order to have someone interested in deploying it.
The hippies talking about "free energy for everyone!" ignores completely that it'll cost money to maintain and replace in future.
I take some solace in the fact that we've not even touched offshore wind yet - and we have heaps of space onshore to use - but it isn't simply a case of building overcapacity of wind/solar/hydro and just expecting it all to do its thing.
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@rocky-rockbottom it's already fuuuucking hot in the Tropics and it's not even November, so yea, I'm with this dude
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@rocky-rockbottom New York Magazine published an article by David Wallace-Wells detailing the potential impacts of climate change if no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Much of the article explores “worst case” scenarios of change in the climate system and the resulting impacts on human populations.
Scientists reviewed the article to determine whether the descriptions of those scenarios accurately reflect the state of scientific knowledge. The New York Magazine article has triggered a number of responses debating the merits of the decision to focus on worst case scenarios, but our review simply addresses the scientific accuracy of the article.
The reviewers found that some statements in this complex article do misrepresent research on the topic, and some others lack the necessary context to be clearly understood by the reader. Many other explanations in the article are correct, but readers are likely left with an overall conclusion that is exaggerated compared to our best scientific understanding.
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@chris-b said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@rocky-rockbottom
Pah - this guy reckons it's all done inside a decade!
University of Arizona might want to check on their policy of tenure going forward...
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@antipodean I daresay he likes getting invitations to speak at conferences.
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Seems like the place for it. It just crossed 40 degrees here!! it's only 11am which means it might get hotter.
Outside is like an oven!!
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@mariner4life said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
Seems like the place for it. It just crossed 40 degrees here!! it's only 11am which means it might get hotter.
Outside is like an oven!!
You're in Cairns? And it's hot?
That's like saying it is sometimes really wet and puggy in the Waikato.
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Fair point
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@mariner4life Someone I know is a teacher up in central QLD and they're about to roll the last week of November above 40C.
Kind of fucked.
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@nta said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@mariner4life Someone I know is a teacher up in central QLD and they're about to roll the last week of November above 40C.
Kind of fucked
And it has been colder and wetter than normal in NZ . But luckily climate CHANGE covers everything. Handy!
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And it's the highest ever recorded temperature at Cairns Airport, 42.6
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Time for the humidity to kick in.
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Lots of cycles in weather:
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/el-niño-la-niña-update-june-2018
Annual, decade, even century, CHANGEs are common. That doesn't mean that we aren't seeing a long term shift that could make life a bit difficult for grand kids of this generation (or sooner). Or we can just ignore it and do nothing - I chose not to have kids - don't give a shit- but have still spent my life studying the weather.
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@snowy said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
Lots of cycles in weather:
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/el-niño-la-niña-update-june-2018
Annual, decade, even century, CHANGEs are common. That doesn't mean that we aren't seeing a long term shift that could make life a bit difficult for grand kids of this generation (or sooner). Or we can just ignore it and do nothing - I chose not to have kids - don't give a shit- but have still spent my life studying the weather.
Much appreciated...
Climate Change