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@Siam said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@barbarian great. No imagination for a campaign that visits all schools then. No upping the general awareness of what to do when suspecting an arsonist? No cameras in areas of population? No hot lines to call? No increased taskforce to tackle arson? No establishing a national database? No addressing the issue like Australia has done for paedophilia, or terrorism or hate speech?
No?
Just throw billions at a problem no one understands and "placate" the masses , and just sit through 10 years more of arson while we tackle climate change?
Sounds great.
Why all that effort for such a statistically small incident?
The problem remains the drought.
People can call 000 if they want to report arson.
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@Siam You couch the issue like it's one that can be easily solved. I'm no expert but I'm sure there are plenty of initiatives that the police use to catch arsonists - I know there is definitely a database that already exists, for example.
I'm all for doing everything we can to decrease incidents of arson, and I'm sure a few ideas will be aired in the inevitable enquiry/royal commission.
But we can do two things at once. We can tackle arson AND take action on climate change.
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@antipodean my bad. I thought over 50% of the fires started from human activity, hence tackle that first. I'm the first to admit I don't know much on the whole subject except that fires have been a large part and parcel of Aussie summers as long as humans have been there.
I thought dealing with Arson and load fuels would be the first step in reducing fire risk. Just a bit more bang for the buck.
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@Siam There's two problems. First is not all human started fires are deliberate. The second is if it's dry enough it's immaterial if there's been fuel reduction burns. Also crown fires don't rely on ground fuel.
What we need to do is better develop management and governance responses.
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@nzzp said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@No-Quarter said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
Are the recent fires a direct result of human induced climate change?
There's not much you can directly attribute to climate change. The best analogy I've seen is - say you increase gravity by 2%. Not much right, but you know the slipping/tripping/injuries will all be a bit worse. For each individual event you can say 'well, I should have lifted my foot further, or not dropped that thing, etc', but as a collective it changes the way people injure themselves. Climate change is a bit like that... individual weather events happen, but they just tend to be slightly more extreme, slightly more intense, etc.
Edit: found teh link
That's a great analogy - thanks
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This could go in any of 4 threads, podcasts, bush fires, or nz politics.
This climate change issue is so complicated and we've all experienced the fatigue of trying to work out who's telling the truth in an appropriate context.
Bjorn Lomborg is someone that anybody trying to get their head around this mess, should know - as one source of information. He calculates the cost benefits of strategies to make life better in terms of money invested and return. "How much will it cost to fix the problem and how much good will that do". His credentials and publications are impressive and genuine, IMO.
E.g.. tuberculosis is the biggest infection disease killer in the world. 1.6 million die per year, and most of these people are in the productive age of their lives, ie. not infants or elderly. Lomborg predicts it'd cost 8 billion to fix it yielding a return of $43 for every dollar spent.
Investing in nutrition for 0 to 2 year olds worldwide , $1 yields 45.
He has similar calculations for a whole raft of world issues, including climate change.
At 44 minutes he mentions New Zealand. I feel a small swelling of pride in expectation of some environmental policy flattery when he says "New Zealand has promised to go carbon neutral by 2050".
The swelling quickly subsided
In 2008 we said we'd do it by 2020. We're currently at 123% instead of zero. But we'll have a pop at 2050 then ( because carbon neutral sounds bloody impressive).To our credit, Lomborg states that we asked the NZ institute of economic research to provide cost analysis.
It turns out (average of all the estimates provided) that carbon neutral in 2050 will cost 16% of GDP. I know, sounds alright to a non finance freak like me.
That's twice as much as we spend on health, and in a dollar cost, it's more than the gov spends on EVERYTHING today.So, we pay for carbon neutral, get to 2050 and maintain for 50 years more it'll cost ( based on median GDP over 80 years) 5 trillion US dollars. For 5 million people to pay for ( I don't even know how many millions that is each). With no money left for normal services.
I urge you to watch the next bit when he talks about how much this will cool the planet...
I think it's a valuable insight to carbon neutral signalling and to be very wary of such promises or claims.
Introducing ( to some of you perhaps) Bjorn Lomborg, a reasoned and practical component of the climate debate.
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@Siam said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
( based on median GDP over 80 years) 5 trillion US dollars. For 5 million people to pay for ( I don't even know how many millions that is each)
Maybe US1 million each. (if 5 trillion is 5 million million)
To reduce the temperature even based on the most scary calculation by the climate alarmists. It would be so small (less then 0.01 degrees) And there are nil restrictions on China (easily the biggest CO2 producer. NZ in comparison is tiny) and India.
But lets destroy the NZ economy (esp farming). And send billions overseas to a fund where the money isn't accounted for. And use climate change to justify more tax etc.
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@Nevorian said in How's the weather?:
@Victor-Meldrew said in How's the weather?:
about -1.3 in Cornwall and strong winds from the East. About -5.2 Wind chill.
No snow or ice as the air is really dry.
Does the Gulf Stream ocean current make it a bit milder there or is that more Southern Ireland. Couldn’t believe it when I saw palm trees in Ireland, wtf the tropics in Ireland of all places
Palms in west Scotland too. The Gulf stream was my first thought as well when I heard about the UK weather. At risk of upsetting climate change deniers but the GS stopping was in the modeling and the UK getting significantly colder as a result. Not saying that is happening (could be a one off event) but QI nonetheless.
Parts of the Thames have frozen for the first time in 60 years .
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@Snowy Yup global climate change is melting the ice caps, and the cold dense water is stopping the gulf stream going as far north as it used to. So the UK will get significantly colder from glabl climate change. In addition Scotland is rising and England sinking, in the last ice age the weight of the ice oop north tilted Britain - wnough that you could walk from the continent. That has gone so the island is slowly righting itself, combined with increasing sea levels we'll see a lot of what was once marsh become so again - the SE
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@Snowy said in How's the weather?:
@Nevorian said in How's the weather?:
@Victor-Meldrew said in How's the weather?:
about -1.3 in Cornwall and strong winds from the East. About -5.2 Wind chill.
No snow or ice as the air is really dry.
Does the Gulf Stream ocean current make it a bit milder there or is that more Southern Ireland. Couldn’t believe it when I saw palm trees in Ireland, wtf the tropics in Ireland of all places
Palms in west Scotland too. The Gulf stream was my first thought as well when I heard about the UK weather. At risk of upsetting climate change deniers but the GS stopping was in the modeling and the UK getting significantly colder as a result. Not saying that is happening (could be a one off event) but QI nonetheless.
Parts of the Thames have frozen for the first time in 60 years .
The Thames is significantly less polluted now than over the last 100 years which would have an impact. Water freezes at a higher temperature than most pollutants. This is based on my knowledge of drinking Youngs and Fullers beer. The taste of which has declined with the increasing purity of the water. Fuck you Greta Thunberg.
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@Machpants said in How's the weather?:
@Snowy Yup global climate change is melting the ice caps, and the cold dense water is stopping the gulf stream going as far north as it used to. So the UK will get significantly colder from glabl climate change. In addition Scotland is rising and England sinking, in the last ice age the weight of the ice oop north tilted Britain - wnough that you could walk from the continent. That has gone so the island is slowly righting itself, combined with increasing sea levels we'll see a lot of what was once marsh become so again - the SE
When? It’s been a very mild winter on the whole. Real cold snap at the moment, -4 outside with a high tomorrow of 1, buy on the whole it’s been ok. Last winter was incredibly wet followed by 3-4 months of straight sun! It’s forecast to be 15 by end of the week - that’s nuts!
Point is not to deny climate change but to say it’s more making things variable than colder. Without doubt, this country is much warmer than when I lived here 2000-2004.
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@Catogrande said in How's the weather?:
The Thames is significantly less polluted now than over the last 100 years which would have an impact. Water freezes at a higher temperature than most pollutants.
That is all true, it could also just be that it is bloody cold.
"London weather: Freezing February could be coldest on record in London as arctic conditions continue"
**"Parts of the UK could be facing the coldest February night since the 1940s after warnings that mercury could fall as low as minus 20C.After recording the coldest night in the UK in 11 years, forecasters including the Met Office are now warning it could be about to get even worse, with five more days of bitingly cold weather"** (that was a couple of days ago).
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@barbarian said in Climate Change:
@No-Quarter They aren't a direct result of climate change, in the sense that we have bushfires every year.
But the strength of the fires are exacerbated by the drought (so the country is very dry), and the more intense summer conditions we are experiencing. A delayed northern wet season has also contributed, pushing hot westerly winds across the south-east.
So it is related to climate change. There is nothing new about fires, or loss of property/life, but the extent of these fires is unprecedented.
Plus way more people have moved to the bush in the last 20-30 years for the lifestyle block experience and building in densely vegetated areas so would expect to see significantly more property damage. Other causes of fire from human activity include poor wiring and use of power tools and other hot works during total fire bans
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@snowy said in Climate Change:
@Catogrande said in How's the weather?:
The Thames is significantly less polluted now than over the last 100 years which would have an impact. Water freezes at a higher temperature than most pollutants.
That is all true, it could also just be that it is bloody cold.
"London weather: Freezing February could be coldest on record in London as arctic conditions continue"
**"Parts of the UK could be facing the coldest February night since the 1940s after warnings that mercury could fall as low as minus 20C.After recording the coldest night in the UK in 11 years, forecasters including the Met Office are now warning it could be about to get even worse, with five more days of bitingly cold weather"** (that was a couple of days ago).
15 degrees yesterday .... this is nuts. The temperature swings here much more like opposite side of Atlantic now.
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@majorrage said in Climate Change:
Just watched a documentary on Greta.
What a phenomenal person. Deserving of every single accolade.
For such a tiny young person, to achieve what she has is simply amazing. And she’s incredibly savvy and smart too.
I’m genuinely blown away.
What's the name of the doco?
Climate Change