Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's going to be a long and tortuous path to stability if the goal remains elimination until vaccination.
Do you really think the vaccine will make any difference? It will be say oh there's a new variant (that will go on forever) that needs yet another vaccine. That isn't ready yet.
My view is it won't stop until people collectively stop being so very compliant (and even want to punish people or dob people in who aren't good children). And accept that trying to stop a virus is like trying to stop the tide coming in. And think that maybe the way we did things in the past wasn't so bad.
Shit man, I don't know. I've been saying for a long time that I'd like to hear some thoughts on the state of play needed for borders to open up and regular lockdowns to stop. Like you, I'm not that confident in it happening, we all seem to be really supportive of these repeat lockdowns (see election results over the last 12 months around the world)
I'm certainly of the view that elimination policy is a fallacy, and we need to move on from that.
Our initial strategy bought us valuable time and we wasted it
that has happened everywhere in Australasia (perhaps outside NSW?)
I really wan tto know what is better about our preparedness now than 12 months ago. What is our medical capacity. How well does our tracing now work? What better data are we using to make decisions.
Because, from the outside, it looks like we are in the same place as 12 months ago, making the same decisions.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's going to be a long and tortuous path to stability if the goal remains elimination until vaccination.
Do you really think the vaccine will make any difference? It will be say oh there's a new variant (that will go on forever) that needs yet another vaccine. That isn't ready yet.
My view is it won't stop until people collectively stop being so very compliant (and even want to punish people or dob people in who aren't good children). And accept that trying to stop a virus is like trying to stop the tide coming in. And think that maybe the way we did things in the past wasn't so bad.
Shit man, I don't know. I've been saying for a long time that I'd like to hear some thoughts on the state of play needed for borders to open up and regular lockdowns to stop. Like you, I'm not that confident in it happening, we all seem to be really supportive of these repeat lockdowns (see election results over the last 12 months around the world)
I'm certainly of the view that elimination policy is a fallacy, and we need to move on from that.
Our initial strategy bought us valuable time and we wasted it
that has happened everywhere in Australasia (perhaps outside NSW?)
I really wan tto know what is better about our preparedness now than 12 months ago. What is our medical capacity. How well does our tracing now work? What better data are we using to make decisions.
Because, from the outside, it looks like we are in the same place as 12 months ago, making the same decisions.
I was totally on board with the flatten the curve idea. The killer part of Covid is how infectious it is, which can quickly overwhelm health systems and people that need care can't get it.
Completely ridding society of the virus altogether and implementing hard lockdowns whenever it rears its head is a lofty goal and a much tougher sell for me.
I guess with the vaccine on the horizon they're going to wait for that before changing the approach to managing the virus within the community without lockdowns.
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@no-quarter But they don't have to change the approach to make sure they optimise capacity do they?
I'd like to know what the ICU beds / ventilator capacity is now compared to a year ago, given that was the premise under which we locked down in the first place. I'll be pretty fucked off if we start getting hospitalisations and immediately run into exactly the same constraints we were apparently trying to avoid last March.
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
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@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
If it was a significant upscale in capacity, we'd have probably got a public holiday.
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
If it was a significant upscale in capacity, we'd have probably got a public holiday.
so, if this upscale hasn't happened, the question arises, is NZ any better prepared for the next thing? Or is the entire strategy being we'll just deal with this one, the next will be someone elses problem?
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One think I'm dubious about is the comment from the PM that "People do dumb things but we're not going to get through this if people pillory them to the point they do not tell the truth."
What this family has shown is that some people don't need to be pilloried not to tell the truth, they will lie anyway if it suits them.
IMO if you want someone to act against their own self-interest the cost of non-compliance has to outweigh the perceived benefit. If the perception is that there is no downside to lying or gaming the system don't be surprised when people do it. As @Mokey says the "be kind" soundbite reinforces the message that nobody will hold you to account beyond a sad smile and a disappointed look. For some people "turn the other cheek" means they get to slap you up both sides of your head.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
If it was a significant upscale in capacity, we'd have probably got a public holiday.
so, if this upscale hasn't happened, the question arises, is NZ any better prepared for the next thing? Or is the entire strategy being we'll just deal with this one, the next will be someone elses problem?
My sarcasm aside, I suspect some it was buying time for better and more effective medical treatments to be identified too, as well as ICU capacity. Some of the graphs I saw out of the UK over December/January showed a much higher rate of infection than March/April, but lower rates of hospitalisation and mortality. I'm now sure how much of that was treatment related, vs 'luck' in the demographics infected.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
If it was a significant upscale in capacity, we'd have probably got a public holiday.
so, if this upscale hasn't happened, the question arises, is NZ any better prepared for the next thing? Or is the entire strategy being we'll just deal with this one, the next will be someone elses problem?
In Auckland, take the examples of Spaghetti Junction, our lack of mass transit network (despite the idea being proposed by Dove Myer Robinson back in the 50s) and the removing the harbour bridge toll years ago and now facing a bridge that is reaching the end of its life. I suspect we don't do forward planning. 10 years from now we will be just as vulnerable to the next virus
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Yet we wouldn't say 'he's only 21, he's stupid, he doesn't know what he's doing' about drink driving? Our system could be better, but goddamn that person has to cop a fair bit of responsibility for this.
Here's a test case to see exactly what punishment he gets.
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When Covid first appeared 12 months ago NZ's ICU capacity was 173. By April this increased to 330 and by July 552. I'm not sure what has happened since.
Similarly withy respirators. Don't know current numbers but I do know from a RNZ The Detail podcast that we purchased (medical term) a shitload last year. We also developed a methodology for having one ventilator support multiple patients
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@frank said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Yet we wouldn't say 'he's only 21, he's stupid, he doesn't know what he's doing' about drink driving? Our system could be better, but goddamn that person has to cop a fair bit of responsibility for this.
Here's a test case to see exactly what punishment he gets.
🥯
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
When Covid first appeared 12 months ago NZ's ICU capacity was 173. By April this increased to 330 and by July 552. I'm not sure what has happened since.
Similarly withy respirators. Don't know current numbers but I do know from a RNZ The Detail podcast that we purchased (medical term) a shitload last year. We also developed a methodology for having one ventilator support multiple patients
So we have increased capacity. We have tried to make some improvements to tighten MIQ. The experience of the last 2 weeks shows there is a soft underbelly once the virus manages to infiltrate the border defences
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat One thing I can't understand is the whole country not going to L3. As you point out there are alot of people heading out when it's announced.
It's not like there is a wall/moat preventing people from leaving.
We are a small country and don't restrict people's movement so surely a nationwide lockdown is the safest option to prevent community transmission.
As others have mentioned, we appear to rely on luck to stop the spread.
The whole dividing the country is really poor administration in terms of the boundaries anyway.
Where is AKL? Lazy bureaucrats have just used the Stupid City as borders and it will drive our local restaurants and cafes broke where I am. We are closer to Whangarei than South Auckland and as far as I am aware none of the cases drove north, but they are all shut down.If we still had regional councils some our businesses might survive.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@frank said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Yet we wouldn't say 'he's only 21, he's stupid, he doesn't know what he's doing' about drink driving? Our system could be better, but goddamn that person has to cop a fair bit of responsibility for this.
Here's a test case to see exactly what punishment he gets.
🥯
He gets the bagel? Seems harsh.
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
So they have found where this person got it, someone in the earlier family didn't disclose a close contact and this close contact was the gym guy.
honestly, no system can handle people lying to it and ignoring protocols.
I was thinking about this, and how much culpability the 21 year old should carry.
Well if he gets cuts any slack because of his age then I hope that will put paid to any more calls for 16 year olds to get the vote.
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@jc he needs to face some repercussions, although if we start punishing peoples for being a fuckstick...but for me it's the person that lied about contact with him that should be the focus of peoples ire!
If they hadnt lied, then he would have been told they had to isolate, rather than suggested, plus it would not have been an unknown case on Saturday, meaning they probably didnt need to raise alert levels.
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@taniwharugby Yeah, I probably agree with that. The 21 year old was a gumboot for sure and needs to be taken aside and told he needs to make better decisions where other people could be impacted. But if the other person straight-out lied we need to learn from that. If the authorities know this person lied and still do nothing, expect the majority of people to decide for themselves when the truth actually needs to be told.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
No new community cases today. Its way early but at least we aren't seeing the kind of run of cases that will see us stuck in L3 for more than a week
just hope you are like Perth. Their last lockdown was on the back of 1 case (who happened to be an Uber driver) and they had zero community transmission cases.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
No new community cases today. Its way early but at least we aren't seeing the kind of run of cases that will see us stuck in L3 for more than a week
just hope you are like Perth. Their last lockdown was on the back of 1 case (who happened to be an Uber driver) and they had zero community transmission cases.
Hope is all we have right now