Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@Rapido I think that's what everyone is banking on. I look forward to a decent announcement from our Finance Minister on Tuesday or Wednesday with more support for businesses and affected sectors.
Speaking of affected sectors, I was looking at Stats NZ figures here: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/tourism-satellite-account-2019
There are 229,566 directly and 163,713 indirectly employed in/by tourism (total 393,279 - this includes working owners). Total spend is $40.9 billion, being $17.2 billion for international tourists and $23.7 billion for domestic tourists.
From that, just over 42% of tourism spending is international, suggesting approx. 165,000 jobs on the line if international tourism dries up completely. Obviously there may be reductions in hours instead of job losses in some cases, but it's still a lot of lost work.
I had written a lot more, but it won't display which is annoying. Maybe tomorrow.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp yeah for me, I reckon when we went into lockdown, they needed to lock the borders up to all non-NZ citizens/residents and those returning into a GOvt facility for testing and iso.
Or, there are some that will argue, stay at L3 and lockdown our borders would have been sufficient...
Obviously the >taken with large spoon of salt< figures out of China are encouraging, similarly the numbers coming out of Italy the past 4 or 5 days are encouraging, but the toll there is huge, so things seem to have a way of levelling out, but its the human cost vs the economic cost that has been discussed as well...there will be a lingering human cost as the economic cost bites too.
I cant see how we dont come out after 4 weeks, but how they manage this will be interesting, I expect I will have to keep working from home (cos I can) with my kids being home schooled...I might bring back the cane!
In the UK this morning it is reported that social distancing will remain for the foreseeable future. The populace is simply too large to adopt and eradicate and trace strategy. Schools likely to reopen in mid-May.
Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...
Not just tourism - business travel is massive. Hotels, flights, entertainment/food - makes up a big proportion of spending
Overseas students, etc.. Big slug GDP.
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@Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
suggesting approx. 165,000 jobs on the line if international tourism dries up completely
I wonder how many of those jobs were filled by overseas people themselves? Obviously will be many Kiwis but in the major tourist destinations a lot of the hospitality staff are from overseas. They still earn and spend money here, so still has an effect, but might change the job loss numbers a bit for New Zealanders.
Accor hotels are a prime example - don't think many of their staff are locals. As they closed down a hotel the day of the shut down in Queenstown, I spoke to an Italian guy and a Spanish girl behind the counter. Room service was by a Phillipina, cleaner was from eastern Europe somewhere judging by the accent. It has been similar in all of their hotels that I have stayed in.
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Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...
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@Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...
No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked
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@Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.
28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.
Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.
Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.
Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.
BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...
No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked
Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...
No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked
Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused
A paused economy is a wrecked economy.
And refer to the post above yours.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...
No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked
Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused
A paused economy is a wrecked economy.
Sorry, I still don't see what is wrecked? What is a wrecked economy in your eyes?