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@Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.
28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.
Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.
Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.
Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.
BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...
No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked
Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...
No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked
Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused
A paused economy is a wrecked economy.
And refer to the post above yours.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...
No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked
Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused
A paused economy is a wrecked economy.
Sorry, I still don't see what is wrecked? What is a wrecked economy in your eyes?
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I was wondering how many arrivals there were back to NZ before the lockdown occurred. Best I can find is from Stats NZ four weekly number up to 19/03 (1 week before lockdown). I've circled that point in green which was 157,000 in that week (which was slightly below average).
Talk that an extra 50,000 have returned further back in the thread, but I've not seen any numbers yet.
So, quarantining before lockdown could have meant potentially quarantining 207,000 people per month?
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo Read JC's post
Fair call, read now.
Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?
If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.
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@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.
28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.
Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.
Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.
Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.
BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.
Yes, I agree. But a recession is coming anyway. All of NZ's trading partners are going into recessions simultaneously and global travel has halted. NZ consumers were doomsday prepping weeks before any official talk of lockdowns. It was happening.
My position is whether a 28 day simultaneous lockdown with returness arriving into a nation in isolation bubbles and with a short sharp period of of govt will cause less failures than a drip fed consumer led contraction. I think so, but I don't know so.
It was happening anyway, just the govt moved about a fortnight earlier than I expected them to, While, initially a little surprised at the speed, I now think it's quite smart to coincide the lock down with the influx.
It gives us someone to blame, though.
Well, that's my take. My consumer behaviour was changing before any ramp up. I was getting 'my last haircut' before I quite needed it, I usually pack my own lunch but I was buying my lunches 'while I felt I still could' before I knew I would have to change some behaviour and retract. Bought some running shoes while there were still physical shops and I could try them on.
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo Read JC's post
Fair call, read now.
Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?
If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.
Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.
NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.
The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.
Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.
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@Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.
28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.
Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.
Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.
Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.
BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.
Yes, I agree. But a recession is coming anyway. All of NZ's trading partners are going into recessions simultaneously and global travel has halted. NZ consumers were doomsday prepping weeks before any official talk of lockdowns. It was happening.
My position is whether a 28 day simultaneous lockdown with returness arriving into a nation in isolation bubbles and with a short sharp period of of govt will cause less failures than a drip fed consumer led contraction. I think so, but I don't know so.
It was happening anyway, just the govt moved about a fortnight earlier than I expected them to, While, initially a little surprised at the speed, I now think it's quite smart to coincide the lock down with the influx.
It gives us someone to blame, though.
Well, that's my take. My consumer behaviour was changing before any ramp up. I was getting 'my last haircut' before I quite needed it, I usually pack my own lunch but I was buying my lunches 'while I felt I still could' before I knew I would have to change some behaviour and retract. Bought some running shoes while there were still physical shops and I could try them on.
I think you’re missing the point. Recessions happen. But for some firms and people they are opportunities. And for others at least as a manager you have options. This scenario gives them none.
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@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo Read JC's post
Fair call, read now.
Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?
If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.
Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.
NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.
The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.
Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.
Sorry for picking at a part of your post as I understand fully what you mean as a whole. What about our biggest essential companies (Dairy, Pulp & Paper, Agriculture and seafood, primary industry, I guess) They won't miss a beat. I get the smaller will suffer in the short term.
Do you think we could have done anything substantially different that wouldn't have seen this sort of impact given what the rest of the world is doing?
I'm not arguing this with you, I just respect your opinion on it.
I also have no idea what "TLDR" stands for
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo Read JC's post
Fair call, read now.
Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?
If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.
Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.
NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.
The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.
Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.
Sorry for picking at a part of your post as I understand fully what you mean as a whole. What about our biggest essential companies (Dairy, Pulp & Paper, Agriculture and seafood, primary industry, I guess) They won't miss a beat. I get the smaller will suffer in the short term.
Do you think we could have done anything substantially different that wouldn't have seen this sort of impact given what the rest of the world is doing?
I'm not arguing this with you, I just respect your opinion on it.
I also have no idea what "TLDR" stands for
The rest of the world has not done what we did.
Of course there will be some industries not affected,? So what?
Let's say 30% of the economy is fine.... 70% will not be. We have wrecked our economy because we were worried about a much smaller % getting sick.
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i would think that the primary industry will be reliant on what the overseas countries can pay coinsidering they will also going through a recession. when combined with the debt levels in some off those industries i would expect quite a few will be in danger of losing there bussiness as well
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@Hooroo TL;DR = Too Long, Didn’t Read
I’m not suggesting the entire economy will tank. Major exporters will probably weather the storm, with the caveat that if NZ appears to be doing better than our trading partners the NZD is likely to strengthen and repatriated income will be lower.
But the internal SME sector is likely to be decimated. As well as the impacts I related above, that will have the additional negative effect of the companies and their employees paying lower or no tax
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In Japan, govt. hasn't done jack apart from promising two washable masks per family (it is beyond satire). Small businesses like restaurants, bars etc had no customers and were struggling with running costs as the fear factor grew parallel to the increasing numbers of corona patients. Now they are being forced to close in the worst effected areas and it looks to be prolonged (Some Japanese commentators saying the Olympics in 2021 will have to be postponed). My point is you are damned if you do and damned if you don't for small businesses.
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@Old-Samurai-Jack said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
In Japan, govt. hasn't done jack apart from promising two washable masks per family (it is beyond satire). Small businesses like restaurants, bars etc had no customers and were struggling with running costs as the fear factor grew parallel to the increasing numbers of corona patients. Now they are being forced to close in the worst effected areas and it looks to be prolonged (Some Japanese commentators saying the Olympics in 2021 will have to be postponed). My point is you are damned if you do and damned if you don't for small businesses.
Many businesses are moving to online contactless business, including one of the local restaurants repurposed as a wine merchant to try to keep alive. For some the crisis is driving adaptation
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I don't know how far it extends, but Mrs CF told me many clothing stores are now trading online. And not just those selling 'essential clothing'. A quick check of a couple of sites confirms this. That's good news. Fortunately Mrs CF chose not to personally support her favourite sites. At least for now......
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@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo TL;DR = Too Long, Didn’t Read
I’m not suggesting the entire economy will tank. Major exporters will probably weather the storm, with the caveat that if NZ appears to be doing better than our trading partners the NZD is likely to strengthen and repatriated income will be lower.
But the internal SME sector is likely to be decimated. As well as the impacts I related above, that will have the additional negative effect of the companies and their employees paying lower or no tax
I guess that is what I am trying to understand from the likes of you (In terms of your thought process around this)
I'm talking about the economy as a whole. If out biggest components of it are still going well and will likely see an increase in revenue in the short term given where our FX rate is and the primary commodities are increasing in price currently. Won't the impact on the economy as a whole be OK overall? There will just be subsections of pain?
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo Read JC's post
Fair call, read now.
Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?
If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.
Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.
NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.
The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.
Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.
Sorry for picking at a part of your post as I understand fully what you mean as a whole. What about our biggest essential companies (Dairy, Pulp & Paper, Agriculture and seafood, primary industry, I guess) They won't miss a beat. I get the smaller will suffer in the short term.
Do you think we could have done anything substantially different that wouldn't have seen this sort of impact given what the rest of the world is doing?
I'm not arguing this with you, I just respect your opinion on it.
I also have no idea what "TLDR" stands for
The rest of the world has not done what we did.
I wasn't suggesting it has. Just suggesting that currently it is different to the norm.
Coronavirus - New Zealand