Coronavirus - UK
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Bones said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
Big day for UK tomorrow.
Last two days very low numbers. Tomorrow will go up a lot but if it’s down week on week then it shows a real slowdown.
But...but...but... SECOND WAVE! This is going to happen right? It's all over Facebook saying so, telling those naughty protesters off!
Be honest with yourself Bones ... do you have a larger fear of a second wave due to the protests over the weekend? I do and had a bit of a meltdown / freakout over the weekend.
Second wave will be VE Day before BLM
The same VE day I attended 5 weeks ago? When will this second wave hit do you know? I thought it was supposed be 3-4 weeks ... but the lab confirmed cases keeps dropping ...
It's gone back up in the North I believe and really hasn't come down that much in parts of Wales.
Given the virus started in London, it's not surprising to see different areas at different places. Pretty hard to blame the above on VE day IMHO.
That's interesting. I haven't seen anywhere that London was the start of this in the UK.
I'm not.
That's what's being reported across all media.
But as more and more people gather, often without maintaining social distancing, and numbers aren't going back up then fears of a second spike may be unfounded.
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@MiketheSnow First case was in Brighton...or Surrey?
Anyone, perhaps no second spike is due to more people having had C19 than expected....
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Aaaand the UK economy shrinks by 20.4% in April. Expect similar YoY figures for May and not far off for June. This follows a contraction of 5.8% in March. Pretty fucking brutal. The bounce back is now everything.
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@Catogrande Totally expected though right, so doesn't really mean anything.
Bounceback to pre Covid-levels will probably not happen for a long time. However, given how low this low was, means this will be a pretty short recession ....
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande Totally expected though right, so doesn't really mean anything.
Bounceback to pre Covid-levels will probably not happen for a long time. However, given how low this low was, means this will be a pretty short recession ....
Expected yes, but whether or not it was expected to be that brutal may be another thing. Also the stark figures can often have an effect above what may be expected. The bare facts though are that if this trend is over a 3 month period then we will have lost somewhere near a quarter of the economy with no real idea of the longer term fallout. What this will do to jobs and therefore spending is somewhat concerning. Further unemployment, less confidence, less inclination for lending from the clearing banks could well result in a longer term contraction in spending. How recoverable that is is up for discussion I feel.
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@Catogrande Yes, Sunak's tone changed a bit after the first month - he initially was super confident of an immediate bounce back, and he's now clearly not so optimistic.
Reality is that in April, literally nobody went anywhere. There were close to zero cars on the road, trains ran at about 10% capacity and spending was pretty much so limited to online deliveries of basics. Remember that purchases of the 3 most expensive things people buy (houses, cars, holidays) were all basically stopped. And something that is included in most peoples staples (other transport) effectively trickled to close to zero as well.
I can only gauge on what I see, but
- On a car WhatsApp group I'm on, there are salesman from Porsche Guildford & BMW Guildford. Both completed over a months worth of orders in the first week open, and said they ran again at huge levels this last week.
- My neighbour is a property developer. His latest house went under offer in March then the buyer pulled out due to Covid. He sold it last week for around 0.5% lower than the original selling price.
- We have been trying to get some UK accommodation for a short break in July or August. Give it a shot, you'll be amazed at what is sold out!
- Basically impossible for me to get on a golf course now unless I want to play at 6am or 5pm. Crazy.
Now whether or not this is a short-term (dead cat) bounce or not, I don't know. I expect it likely is, but there is some pent up demand. Yes, there will be more job losses once furlough ends, and some industries will never recover (airlines, commercial real estate) so some of those jobs are gone permanently. However, these things happen all the time (although not usually at once!), and hence it will take some time.
The main thing we must avoid is a second wave. That cannot be stressed enough.
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Yeah there will certainly be some pent up demand in some areas. As MR noted the Porsche and BMW dealers have done well but I suspect the volume dealers not so much. Also, you'd expect a surge immediately post lockdown easing but will it be enough for even the high end dealers, let alone manufacturing and transportation. Hospitality is the third biggest employer in the UK (yeah I know, surprised me too) and whilst we're all gagging to get out to a restaurant and pub again, they are just not going to replace what they have lost.
West Country holiday let landlords accused of fleecing? Colour me unsurprised. I'm still bitter about taking the (then) kids camping in South Devon some years back. It was at the time of the huge solar eclipse. I'd timed it for the week after only to find out that "we're still on eclipse prices". So I had to pay double the normal rate just because a week before there had been an eclipse that I could not ever see. It was like paying over the odds for a ticket on a train that had already left the station.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
It was like paying over the odds for a ticket on a train that had already left the station.
Don't go giving Southern ideas for post lockdown now.
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@Catogrande Re Hospitality, Some will replace and then some, others will lose out big time. Remember, a lot of cash which usually goes offshore for holidays, isn't anymore.
We tried last night to book at our favourite place in the UK (Gara Rock) and nup, no chance.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande Totally expected though right, so doesn't really mean anything.
Bounceback to pre Covid-levels will probably not happen for a long time. However, given how low this low was, means this will be a pretty short recession ....
Like lowering hanging man two inches closer to floor?
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande Totally expected though right, so doesn't really mean anything.
Bounceback to pre Covid-levels will probably not happen for a long time. However, given how low this low was, means this will be a pretty short recession ....
Like lowering hanging man two inches closer to floor?
As in, you can expect the next quarter to be up! I.e breaking the recession straight away ...
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande Totally expected though right, so doesn't really mean anything.
Bounceback to pre Covid-levels will probably not happen for a long time. However, given how low this low was, means this will be a pretty short recession ....
Like lowering hanging man two inches closer to floor?
As in, you can expect the next quarter to be up! I.e breaking the recession straight away ...
Yes. But breaking the recession, whilst better than not breaking it, may not feel all that prosperous!
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande Totally expected though right, so doesn't really mean anything.
Bounceback to pre Covid-levels will probably not happen for a long time. However, given how low this low was, means this will be a pretty short recession ....
Like lowering hanging man two inches closer to floor?
As in, you can expect the next quarter to be up! I.e breaking the recession straight away ...
Yes. But breaking the recession, whilst better than not breaking it, may not feel all that prosperous!
Yeah, getting growth in Q3 (QonQ) would have as much relevance as Parisse's draw against the ABs.
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Does anyone know how likely this is? I know initially it was thought that some people may be asymptomatic but then someone said its unlikely and % would be very low.... Now apparently 80% asymptomatic! Surely not? Have other countries produced data too?
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Oh dear 🤦♂️
Although I thought there was far more than that many idiots in the UK!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12340019
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@taniwharugby Underlying that is quite a funny thing. Where the petition is being organised change.org was supposed to be a place where ordinary people can find their voice for change. As always it gets taken over by the shouty brigade, so someone taking the outright piss on that platform is really quite heartwarming
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - UK:
Oh dear 🤦♂️
Although I thought there was far more than that many idiots in the UK!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12340019
Lead story on the herald this morning when I logged on .. Seriously the LEAD story.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - UK:
Oh dear 🤦♂️
Although I thought there was far more than that many idiots in the UK!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12340019
Lead story on the herald this morning when I logged on .. Seriously the LEAD story.
Insert comment here about no riots and/or covud in Auckland for them to report on.