Coronavirus - Australia
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
is it possible to just not speak to or listen to these academics?
Have a fucking read of that. These blokes have done a model that reckons even if we hit 80% we will need lockdowns for half of next year.
The only way to avoid that is to apparently vaccinate 90% of the entire population and stay at Level 2 restrictions and don't let anyone in the Country.
For all of 2022
A state politician just got an erection reading that
'the Melbourne University research, which uses the state of Victoria as the modelled population, expects people will still need to be in lockdown for 58 per cent of the year to keep deaths down to 1000 a year (in a jurisdiction with a similar population) and infections to 320 a day.'
If my local politicians adopt this modelling as justification, I'll use my other 42% of the year hunting down the author.
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@kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Tradies marching over the westgate...not good
About as productive as the CFMEU is normally.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
is it possible to just not speak to or listen to these academics?
Have a fucking read of that. These blokes have done a model that reckons even if we hit 80% we will need lockdowns for half of next year.
The only way to avoid that is to apparently vaccinate 90% of the entire population and stay at Level 2 restrictions and don't let anyone in the Country.
For all of 2022
A state politician just got an erection reading that
'the Melbourne University research, which uses the state of Victoria as the modelled population, expects people will still need to be in lockdown for 58 per cent of the year to keep deaths down to 1000 a year (in a jurisdiction with a similar population) and infections to 320 a day.'
If my local politicians adopt this modelling as justification, I'll use my other 42% of the year hunting down the author.
Shooting the messenger much? The folks doing the modelling are just stating the facts (as long as it's reasonably accurate). The politicians who make the decisions should be your game.
Also a bit presumptuous to assume you'll be allowed into Melbourne in 2022
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@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Also a bit presumptuous to assume you'll be allowed into Melbourne in 2022
I've now got the urge to attend the Boxing Day Ashes Test ...
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@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Shooting the messenger much? The folks doing the modelling are just stating the facts (as long as it's reasonably accurate). The politicians who make the decisions should be your game.
Also a bit presumptuous to assume you'll be allowed into Melbourne in 2022
I don't know about that. Australia seems to be the opposite to here, in that Boris & co have consistently used the most positive models / stats to come up with their reasonings. The right approach is probably somewhere in the middle as it's been both right and the wrong thing to do.
Definitely wrong at the start with Boris & his wash your hands bullshit.
Definitely right during the summer with Sage' 150-200k cases per day bullshit.The best part of the Sage was them saying their model was wrong due to the unexpected warm summer. Right at the end of the most shit summer that anybody can remember.
The folks doing the modelling have as much as an agenda as the politicians. That part is clear. The world has moved to a get stats to prove your theory, not learn your theory by looking at the stats.
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@nta said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Also a bit presumptuous to assume you'll be allowed into Melbourne in 2022
I've now got the urge to attend the Boxing Day Ashes Test ...
Yeah, me too. Wonder where it'll be?
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@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
is it possible to just not speak to or listen to these academics?
Have a fucking read of that. These blokes have done a model that reckons even if we hit 80% we will need lockdowns for half of next year.
The only way to avoid that is to apparently vaccinate 90% of the entire population and stay at Level 2 restrictions and don't let anyone in the Country.
For all of 2022
A state politician just got an erection reading that
'the Melbourne University research, which uses the state of Victoria as the modelled population, expects people will still need to be in lockdown for 58 per cent of the year to keep deaths down to 1000 a year (in a jurisdiction with a similar population) and infections to 320 a day.'
If my local politicians adopt this modelling as justification, I'll use my other 42% of the year hunting down the author.
Shooting the messenger much? The folks doing the modelling are just stating the facts
They aren't facts, they're basically untestable hypotheses. And when we do something different to the myriad of assumptions the author and media will no doubt tell us the counter-factual would've happened.
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@majorrage those doing modelling typically arent impacted if everyone is made to stay home either!
MOst of those our Media love to talk to have been largely on the "1 more week" soundbites.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Shooting the messenger much? The folks doing the modelling are just stating the facts (as long as it's reasonably accurate). The politicians who make the decisions should be your game.
Also a bit presumptuous to assume you'll be allowed into Melbourne in 2022
I don't know about that. Australia seems to be the opposite to here, in that Boris & co have consistently used the most positive models / stats to come up with their reasonings. The right approach is probably somewhere in the middle as it's been both right and the wrong thing to do.
Definitely wrong at the start with Boris & his wash your hands bullshit.
Definitely right during the summer with Sage' 150-200k cases per day bullshit.The best part of the Sage was them saying their model was wrong due to the unexpected warm summer. Right at the end of the most shit summer that anybody can remember.
The folks doing the modelling have as much as an agenda as the politicians. That part is clear. The world has moved to a get stats to prove your theory, not learn your theory by looking at the stats.
That was hilarious/ridiculous. Sage have lost all credibility IMO. Summer was hot for about 4 days?!
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
is it possible to just not speak to or listen to these academics?
Have a fucking read of that. These blokes have done a model that reckons even if we hit 80% we will need lockdowns for half of next year.
The only way to avoid that is to apparently vaccinate 90% of the entire population and stay at Level 2 restrictions and don't let anyone in the Country.
For all of 2022
A state politician just got an erection reading that
'the Melbourne University research, which uses the state of Victoria as the modelled population, expects people will still need to be in lockdown for 58 per cent of the year to keep deaths down to 1000 a year (in a jurisdiction with a similar population) and infections to 320 a day.'
If my local politicians adopt this modelling as justification, I'll use my other 42% of the year hunting down the author.
Shooting the messenger much? The folks doing the modelling are just stating the facts
They aren't facts, they're basically untestable hypotheses. And when we do something different to the myriad of assumptions the author and media will no doubt tell us the counter-factual would've happened.
I mean, you're not wrong, but that's kind of the nature of modelling. If you forecast it will be 20.5â° tomorrow, and it turns out to be 21.7â°, then you can probably look back and explain why your forecast was wrong.
Covid modelling is more wrong, more often, than weather forecasting, but given how new it is that's not a surprise.
I'm not denying that some of the models are crap, or impacted by biases. Just saying it's a bloody difficult, and really important, job.
Edit: you're right that they're not facts, poor choice of word by me
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - Australia:
That was hilarious/ridiculous. Sage have lost all credibility IMO. Summer was hot for about 4 days?!
Slightly off topic, but September has helped make up for it. Absolutely loving this climate.
Same, have 40ppl coming here this Saturday for my son's birthday party, which means the weather will almost certainly be crap by then...
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Tradies marching over the westgate...not good
About as productive as the CFMEU is normally.
So CFMEU claiming they are not members as their hi vis is too clean or new for a typical builders labourer
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@nevorian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Tradies marching over the westgate...not good
About as productive as the CFMEU is normally.
So CFMEU claiming they are not members as their hi vis is too clean or new for a typical builders labourer
ha ha, Im sure it was also the non members who were also the ones "allegedly" throwing piss
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@act-crusader said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Just to be clear I think protesting for your rights is important, assault is not.
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@bayimports the article I posted probably gives the best description around of what has been bubbling under the surface for some time and hence the motivation for some to protest and target the CFMEU offices.
Some of the reaching going on that these are neo-nazis and anti-vaxxers doesnât stack up. Schneiders is one of the best investigative industrial relations journos Aussie has.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Shooting the messenger much? The folks doing the modelling are just stating the facts (as long as it's reasonably accurate). The politicians who make the decisions should be your game.
Also a bit presumptuous to assume you'll be allowed into Melbourne in 2022
I don't know about that. Australia seems to be the opposite to here, in that Boris & co have consistently used the most positive models / stats to come up with their reasonings. The right approach is probably somewhere in the middle as it's been both right and the wrong thing to do.
Definitely wrong at the start with Boris & his wash your hands bullshit.
Definitely right during the summer with Sage' 150-200k cases per day bullshit.The best part of the Sage was them saying their model was wrong due to the unexpected warm summer. Right at the end of the most shit summer that anybody can remember.
The folks doing the modelling have as much as an agenda as the politicians. That part is clear. The world has moved to a get stats to prove your theory, not learn your theory by looking at the stats.
Only a shit Summer in the SE
Modellers should go back to doing model aeroplanes
Hereâs a local climate scientist
I skied 14 days in Wales 2019/2020
23 days in 2020/2021
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@act-crusader Gotta love Unions - "we're all in this together provided it works exactly how I want". Setka is a piece of work, no doubt, and looks to be clinging desperately to whatever semblance of power the nepotism allows.
Had to love this quote from some random, referencing Croatia:
âThose boys fought against communism. Now we are staring down the barrel of communism again,â the man yelled. âNo f---ing c--- is going to put a vaccine inside me.â
Good thing we've still got enough socialism in this country that you get health care for free - including vaccines. Of course if enough outbreaks continue at construction sites, when these vaccines are readily available, the ICUs will be flooded, but carry on being outraged.
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I have no idea how this is all going to play out. Marching as CFMEU has dones several times just since i moved to melbourne is one thing....yesterday was mad
will dan back down, dont know, it would undermine everything else hes rightly or wrongly done in the last 18 months, he may just say "fuck em"
talking to people yesterday they may have gone too far this time, lots of people thought the unions had too much power before COVID...then even more got bit annoyed when they were able to keep working when so many people didn't...but then to throw their toy like that when the most obvious reason (i know there is other stuff) is something the vast majority of the population is doing (getting the shot)
...its going to be an interesting few days