Ukraine
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There will be no winners out of this regardless of any result.
Living in "the west", it all obviously reads to me that Putin is not happy with the level of respect being given to Russia & doesn't like Ukraine potentially being part of Nato. Think's he weakens Russia it basically, him.
If you listen to his speech last night, it does actually help to understand his point of view. I think he's a bit deluded, but must remember that I can only make my own views on what I read, which is the same as Russians. Since Covid, I no longer hold the view that any media, Russian or otherwise, can be viewed as a source of fact. IT does appear that Putin views Ukraine as part of Russia and is simply looking to take it back.
However, having read this morning that Dianne Abbot views the whole thing as Nato's fault, then I must conclude that Nato are without fault.
God help us all. This planet really is totally fucked.
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I'm not surprised that Putin wants a sphere of influence around Russia, and if Ukraine won't play ball as he demands, he'll take what he wants.
At the end of the day, no-one is going to go to war with him over the Ukraine.
He always wanted to rebuild the old USSR, and he's doing it one small piece at a time
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So, thoughts on his endgame? What's the best outcome he can achieve in the medium term?
Here's my guesses. Note, I welcome serious critique.
The best is that Biden / Putin sit down and work out their differences and if there is a middle ground. Chances of this are less than 5%.
The next best, and this is not great for many in the Ukraine, "The West" allows these two new states to be pro Russia independents as a compromise & Putin agrees. I think this is also less than 5%.
The next, and this is the most likely in my view, The West goes hard on the sanctions, really hard & commodity / energy prices spike big time even further & then the west goes in and there are battles. It finishes pretty quickly too with Ukraine "free" and we enter the next Cold War ... commodity prices stay high, and the rest of the world adapts. In about 5-7 years, vast govt spending on alternative energy (at high costs to tax payer) sees alternative energy everywhere at which point Russia opens up the taps again and everybody floods back to it. I'd give this 70% chance.
Next, they invade proper, the west rallies proper & we have a war at the war on terror /afghan / iraq level. Politically it's a complete shit fight and at the end, absolutely nobody wins and nothing is gained. I'd give this 15% chance.
Worst case, Russia goes all out, China backs them and we descend properly into hell. At the end, a new world order is firmly established. I give this the balance, a 5-10% chance.
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@mariner4life said in Ukraine:
Can't someone come up with a new play?
Vlad's using one that's been recycled over and over
"ooh, these areas of the Ukraine are actually independent. And it's a bit war-ish there, so i am just sending in some peacekeepers. Absolutely nothing to see here"
fucking super subtle Vlad.
Nobody doesn't see straight through Vlad ... But what ya gonna do?
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I'm not surprised that Putin wants a sphere of influence around Russia, and if Ukraine won't play ball as he demands, he'll take what he wants.
At the end of the day, no-one is going to go to war with him over the Ukraine.
He always wanted to rebuild the old USSR, and he's doing it one small piece at a time
The Ukraine is twice the size of Poland and the second largest country in Europe. Crimea was a significant chunk of land as well with 2.4 million people. Here is what the Ukraine govt thinks: https://mfa.gov.ua/en/10-facts-you-should-know-about-russian-military-aggression-against-ukraine
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@majorrage said in Ukraine:
So, thoughts on his endgame? What's the best outcome he can achieve in the medium term?
Here's my guesses. Note, I welcome serious critique.
Another scenario might be the West doesn't get involved but arms Ukraine and supports it militarily to get Putin bogged down in a war he can't win, like Chechnya, to destabilise and undermine his domestic power. Meanwhile the West accelerates it's move away from dependence on Russian energy like it is starting to do with technology from China and increases defence spending.
Beginning to wonder if the last post-Cold War decades have been a golden age where the West has been able to navel-gaze and introspect in mostly glorious safety
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@nostrildamus said in Ukraine:
I'm not surprised that Putin wants a sphere of influence around Russia, and if Ukraine won't play ball as he demands, he'll take what he wants.
At the end of the day, no-one is going to go to war with him over the Ukraine.
He always wanted to rebuild the old USSR, and he's doing it one small piece at a time
The Ukraine is twice the size of Poland and the second largest country in Europe. Crimea was a significant chunk of land as well with 2.4 million people. Here is what the Ukraine govt thinks: https://mfa.gov.ua/en/10-facts-you-should-know-about-russian-military-aggression-against-ukraine
Do we say the New Zealand or New Zealand? It’s Ukraine not the Ukraine.
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@billy-tell said in Ukraine:
@nostrildamus said in Ukraine:
I'm not surprised that Putin wants a sphere of influence around Russia, and if Ukraine won't play ball as he demands, he'll take what he wants.
At the end of the day, no-one is going to go to war with him over the Ukraine.
He always wanted to rebuild the old USSR, and he's doing it one small piece at a time
The Ukraine is twice the size of Poland and the second largest country in Europe. Crimea was a significant chunk of land as well with 2.4 million people. Here is what the Ukraine govt thinks: https://mfa.gov.ua/en/10-facts-you-should-know-about-russian-military-aggression-against-ukraine
Do we say the New Zealand or New Zealand? It’s Ukraine not the Ukraine.
Yeah that annoys me!
Think its a carry over of when Ukraine used to be referred to as "the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic"?
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@kiwiwomble said in Ukraine:
intenegance
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These guys are our New Allies, and it would be a crime against humanity to deny them entry into NATO.
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@kid-chocolate said in Ukraine:
These guys are our New Allies, and it would be a crime against humanity to deny them entry into NATO.
point?
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@mariner4life since when has that been a requirement on the fern?
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@kiwiwomble said in Ukraine:
@mariner4life since when has that been a requirement on the fern?
it actually used to, and it made discussion possible.
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@mariner4life said in Ukraine:
@kiwiwomble said in Ukraine:
@mariner4life since when has that been a requirement on the fern?
it actually used to, and it made discussion possible.
I quite like the "Oh, I'll just leave this here. It will make me look clever by illustrating my point without me actually saying it" approach, as nearly always - it does the complete opposite.
It's typically a standalone point of data, which might support one's stance on something in an echo-chamber, but to a wider audience - is largely irrelevant. And therefore, makes the poster look FAR from clever.Also... it's easily ignored. One can just look at the piece-of-info in isolation, as a mildly interesting snippet, and ignore the motives of the poster, because... they didn't actually state their ridiculous opinion, so it doesn't need to be debated.
Everybody's happy - either in delusion or laziness.