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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@antipodean equally as likely to happen too
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Quote from Stuff this morning.
He (Bloomfeild) said vaccination rates need to be north of 90 per cent before they’re confident of opening up the freedoms of alert level 1.
I get how this aligns with experiences overseas by countries that have decided to 'live with it' but I can't see how even L2 is sustainable in the long run. It's not just the businesses affected by customer restrictions it's also the H&S aspect and many workplaces.
At my workplace we need to get permission to go into the office and as much as we have the tools to wfh, lots gets missed by not having those general workplace discussions etc.The experience of Denmark with a similar population, a double vax rate of around 85% and twice our intensive care capacity has an infection rate of about 350 per day (interestingly this is dropping day by day) and a death rate of about 2-3 per day.
Hospitalisation, which IMO shows the pressure placed on the health system), shows around 100 people in beds with about 20% of those in intensive care and 75% of those on ventilators.Our variables are different of course, Our avg population density is much much lower (18 per sq km/137 psk) but maybe our underlying respiratory health is lower.
It looks to me that Denmark is making a good case for Bloomfield to turn attention to preparing hospital resources to ensure that pressure isn't felt rather than strangling everyones lives once we reach about 85%
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
We will never get 90% vaccination rates.
That’s just another way of saying the lockdown level is permanent.
Has any other country exceeded 90? From memory one is at 87?
Looking at Denmark again (a very compliant people that buy into the value of being part of a society), and they are at 86.4 for partially vaccinated but 84.4 for fully. Although people are still getting shots it is mostly closing that small gap with about 0.2% new vax starters per day. Maybe in about another month they will be near 90?
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@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
We will never get 90% vaccination rates.
That’s just another way of saying the lockdown level is permanent.
Has any other country exceeded 90? From memory one is at 87?
Looking at Denmark again (a very compliant people that buy into the value of being part of a society), and they are at 86.4 for partially vaccinated but 84.4 for fully. Although people are still getting shots it is mostly closing that small gap with about 0.2% new vax starters per day. Maybe in about another month they will be near 90?
Oneworld in data shows Portugal at 87% first vaccine.
Denmark shows 76% first (which is similar to most of Europe).
Where are you getting those Denmark numbers from??
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@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
We will never get 90% vaccination rates.
That’s just another way of saying the lockdown level is permanent.
Has any other country exceeded 90? From memory one is at 87?
Looking at Denmark again (a very compliant people that buy into the value of being part of a society), and they are at 86.4 for partially vaccinated but 84.4 for fully. Although people are still getting shots it is mostly closing that small gap with about 0.2% new vax starters per day. Maybe in about another month they will be near 90?
Oneworld in data shows Portugal at 87% first vaccine.
Denmark shows 76% first (which is similar to most of Europe).
Where are you getting those Denmark numbers from??
It's the eligible v total differences.
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@l_n_p Danish Health Authority
This could explain the difference
"The proportion of vaccinated persons is calculated in relation to the number of persons who are offered vaccination."
Our World in Data numbers use "% of total population"
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
We will never get 90% vaccination rates.
That’s just another way of saying the lockdown level is permanent.
Has any other country exceeded 90? From memory one is at 87?
It's hard to tell now, as booster shots are messing up the data the OurWorldInData collects and many media organisations use.
Looking at this one from Economist. Can make assumption that second dose stats should not be impacted by boosters. So maybe 3 countries have got above 90% for eligible (over 12s).
Wouldn't bet my house on those stats though anymore.
But anyway, the climb from 80 to 90 is a bit of a crawl, I would assume much of that increase is by people reacting after the virus is loose in their community rather than those who want to get vaxxed before the virus is loose.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/tracking-coronavirus-across-the-world -
fwiw I think the top two in Europe (at least from OneWorldInData) are Spain and Portugal at 80% and 87% respectively.
I'm guessing the key factors here -
- Big emphasis on family, and close family connection - people value their elderly relatives
- Both commercially have a big tourist industry and have been hit hard the last two years because of the lack of tourists. Low cases by high vax rates means they know their governments will open up fully to tourism.
Apart from that I can't see why they are doing so well. I must assume they have lower anti-vaccination groundswell too ... which is high in France and Germany for example.
Having said that, I'd have thought Italy would be "up there" for the same reasons as Portugal and Spain, plus it was hit SO hard early on. It's not though ... 73%.
Complex.
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@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial Surely we have to use total population, not who it's offered to????
I mean in terms of epedemial control?
Our measures quoted in the media are usually against the 'eligible'. The target is against that (over 12s).
I think there are still lots of unknowns around the benefits of vaccine in U12s
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Okay, I can reconcile this now
OurWorldInDate is using % of total population, matches the Guardian UK numbers.
Economist is using 12+ (UK is just about to start on 12-15)
UK Government official numbers currently use 16+
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinationsUK First dose 16+ - 89%
UK Second dose 16+ - 82%So 90% of eligible at 12+ or 16+ is certainly doable, 90% of total population definitely pretty hard!
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@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial Surely we have to use total population, not who it's offered to????
I mean in terms of epedemial control?
Our measures quoted in the media are usually against the 'eligible'. The target is against that (over 12s).
I think there are still lots of unknowns around the benefits of vaccine in U12s
The main benefit is the herd immunity for their grandparents.
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@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial Surely we have to use total population, not who it's offered to????
I mean in terms of epedemial control?
Our measures quoted in the media are usually against the 'eligible'. The target is against that (over 12s).
I think there are still lots of unknowns around the benefits of vaccine in U12s
The main benefit is the herd immunity for their grandparents.
Modellers in Europe where Delta is real life have pretty much concluded that with given a baseline (uncontrolled) R rate of lowball 5.0 - maximum estimated 8.0 and effectiveness of current vaccines in reducing infection, herd immunity would require ...
90% of total population (not just eligible) at 5.0
95% at 7.0
NZ modelling I have seen uses 6.0, most European modelling assumes 7.0I don't disagree about NZ's strategy, just noting that with current vaccine technology, no country I am aware of is shooting for herd immunity any more after Delta.
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@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial Surely we have to use total population, not who it's offered to????
I mean in terms of epedemial control?
Our measures quoted in the media are usually against the 'eligible'. The target is against that (over 12s).
I think there are still lots of unknowns around the benefits of vaccine in U12s
The main benefit is the herd immunity for their grandparents.
Modellers in Europe where Delta is real life have pretty much concluded that with given a baseline (uncontrolled) R rate of lowball 5.0 - maximum estimated 8.0 and effectiveness of current vaccines in reducing infection, herd immunity would require ...
90% of total population (not just eligible) at 5.0
95% at 7.0
NZ modelling I have seen uses 6.0, most European modelling assumes 7.0I don't disagree about NZ's strategy, just noting that with current vaccine technology, no country I am aware of is shooting for herd immunity any more after Delta.
Yeah, it is all about management of health system capabilities. I would be happy if we transferred losses from the effects of restrictions to spending on health capabilities.
The biggest 'sell' in NZ would be deaths. WE simply aren't used to them due to our strategies. Doesn't help that the PM has said 'one is too many'.
Plenty of other diseases/illnesses that cause death and are managed. We 'accept' cancer deaths as we don't always have a cure. It is sad but part of our world.
IMO we need to increase capability to deal with a new threat and find the 'right' balance. -
@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
We will never get 90% vaccination rates.
That’s just another way of saying the lockdown level is permanent.
Has any other country exceeded 90? From memory one is at 87?
Looking at Denmark again (a very compliant people that buy into the value of being part of a society), and they are at 86.4 for partially vaccinated but 84.4 for fully. Although people are still getting shots it is mostly closing that small gap with about 0.2% new vax starters per day. Maybe in about another month they will be near 90?
So assuming that's the best case, using your term compliant, I don't see how we ever get there.
This feels like an unattainable target to justify the blunt lockdown approach for years, if not forever.
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
We will never get 90% vaccination rates.
That’s just another way of saying the lockdown level is permanent.
Has any other country exceeded 90? From memory one is at 87?
Looking at Denmark again (a very compliant people that buy into the value of being part of a society), and they are at 86.4 for partially vaccinated but 84.4 for fully. Although people are still getting shots it is mostly closing that small gap with about 0.2% new vax starters per day. Maybe in about another month they will be near 90?
So assuming that's the best case, using your term compliant, I don't see how we ever get there.
This feels like an unattainable target to justify the blunt lockdown approach for years, if not forever.
It's doable. On those 12+ Economist eligible stats, Portugal is on 90% now, Ireland nearly 88%?
From afar the lack of clarity from the NZ Goverment feels disingenuous at this point because they know NZ healthcare and ICU capacity, they know their healthcare plans and flex. They will have modelled cases > hospitalisations > deaths with varying levels of controls, and with and without MIQ in place.
Not sure kiwis are compliant but your media sure as hell are subserviant.
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@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
We will never get 90% vaccination rates.
That’s just another way of saying the lockdown level is permanent.
Has any other country exceeded 90? From memory one is at 87?
Looking at Denmark again (a very compliant people that buy into the value of being part of a society), and they are at 86.4 for partially vaccinated but 84.4 for fully. Although people are still getting shots it is mostly closing that small gap with about 0.2% new vax starters per day. Maybe in about another month they will be near 90?
So assuming that's the best case, using your term compliant, I don't see how we ever get there.
This feels like an unattainable target to justify the blunt lockdown approach for years, if not forever.
It's doable. On those 12+ Economist eligible stats, Portugal is on 90% now, Ireland nearly 88%?
From afar the lack of clarity from the NZ Goverment feels disingenuous at this point because they know NZ healthcare and ICU capacity, they know their healthcare plans and flex. They will have modelled cases > hospitalisations > deaths with varying levels of controls, and with and without MIQ in place.
Not sure kiwis are compliant but your media sure as hell are subserviant.
If they aren't, then PM refuses to go on the show anymore. And muzzles her ministers.
Coronavirus - New Zealand