Coronavirus - UK
-
@sparky Sauce? Worldometers have it at just over 1,000 yesterday and just over 1,100 the day before? Still a lot but as the Government are getting near their testing and tracing targets, a greater number of positive tests would be expected for some time.
Edit: I now see the BBC have said 1552 cases in the past 24 hours going on to say this is the highest daily rate since June. Cherry picking maybe. If so rather misleading.
-
Crucially no spike in hospitalisations or deaths
-
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
Crucially no spike in hospitalisations or deaths
You’d expect new cases to be a leading indicator though so don’t speak too soon 😟
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
Crucially no spike in hospitalisations or deaths
You’d expect new cases to be a leading indicator though so don’t speak too soon 😟
It's been weeks since the last fear - overcrowded pubs
Months since VE Day, packed beaches, protests etc etc
We'd have had something by now
-
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
Crucially no spike in hospitalisations or deaths
You’d expect new cases to be a leading indicator though so don’t speak too soon 😟
It's been weeks since the last fear - overcrowded pubs
Months since VE Day, packed beaches, protests etc etc
We'd have had something by now
I'm stating this based on my extensive knowledge not only of epidemiology but also from the detailed data about population movement that I have at my fingertips.
VE day, packed beaches and protests were not really ongoing, countrywide events. The getting back to normal things like pubs, greater social intermingling etc I would expect to have a wider effect due purely to the numbers - in the millions rather than the thousands. It's been a few weeks since the commencement of normality and less than that for it to really take hold in the collective will. This plus wider testing was always likely to see a spike in cases. Which of the two is the most relevant we do not yet know. IMO still much too early to take anything away from.
i don't want to sound pessimistic, more that I would like any surprises to be good ones.
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
Crucially no spike in hospitalisations or deaths
You’d expect new cases to be a leading indicator though so don’t speak too soon 😟
It's been weeks since the last fear - overcrowded pubs
Months since VE Day, packed beaches, protests etc etc
We'd have had something by now
I'm stating this based on my extensive knowledge not only of epidemiology but also from the detailed data about population movement that I have at my fingertips.
VE day, packed beaches and protests were not really ongoing, countrywide events. The getting back to normal things like pubs, greater social intermingling etc I would expect to have a wider effect due purely to the numbers - in the millions rather than the thousands. It's been a few weeks since the commencement of normality and less than that for it to really take hold in the collective will. This plus wider testing was always likely to see a spike in cases. Which of the two is the most relevant we do not yet know. IMO still much too early to take anything away from.
i don't want to sound pessimistic, more that I would like any surprises to be good ones.
I understand the natural worries given the increase in cases. 1500 per day is quite a few.
However, there is simply zero correlation to hospital admissions, ICU admissions, ventilator usage & lastly death. It seems people are getting the virus, but not getting extremely sick from it. Why is that? My view is, and I wrote this earlier on another thread I think, is that during the pandemic peak, where we had hundreds and occasionally over 1000 people passing every day, There were well over 100,000 new infections per day. So we are a long way from that.
There is also a bit more talk about reinfection. Obviously, the fact that bloke in HK apparently got it twice, made huge news which went viral. What didn't go viral is that the bloke didn't realise he even had it the second time. Which is the immune system doing what it's supposed to do.
Maybe I write from a position of hope, and there is some naivity there. I'm simply a numbers guy, and the numbers don't really add up.
-
@MajorRage It's been 1500 for one day only so far and as we've seen before the reporting of cases and deaths can be skewed from one day to the next. The trend is the important thing here.
The lack of correlation in hospital admissions etc is encouraging and there's probably a few reasons for that, some as you have said but perhaps also that the virus has already culled a large proportion of the highly at risk section of our society? Possible anyway.
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage It's been 1500 for one day only so far and as we've seen before the reporting of cases and deaths can be skewed from one day to the next. The trend is the important thing here.
The lack of correlation in hospital admissions etc is encouraging and there's probably a few reasons for that, some as you have said but perhaps also that the virus has already culled a large proportion of the highly at risk section of our society? Possible anyway.
Yep the early cull is my thought too.
-
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage It's been 1500 for one day only so far and as we've seen before the reporting of cases and deaths can be skewed from one day to the next. The trend is the important thing here.
The lack of correlation in hospital admissions etc is encouraging and there's probably a few reasons for that, some as you have said but perhaps also that the virus has already culled a large proportion of the highly at risk section of our society? Possible anyway.
Yep the early cull is my thought too.
It’s the UK version of go hard, go early 😳
-
-
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
Some interesting points raised by this UK talk show host, namely swabs in the post
Host is a Kiwi? His eksent was quite dustinctuve.
-
-
-
Narrative changing from the BBC
-
@sparky Yes hospitalization and deaths are the important issue and whether the ICU’s are being overrun. Not the number of cases. Cause for alarm? Only if you are an alarmist. Damn I am tired of this shit and our response to a virus. We know who is susceptible and they need to take care of themselves instead of the healthy being locked down. It has been a reverse guilt trip on the healthy to have to quarantine because of the fears of those at risk and the other nervous nellies who have bought in to it.
Our kids are not in school in CA despite the fact that 3 kids have died out of 74000 reported cases. And this number is probably only scratching the surface. Do the math and let that sink in. And those children probably had an illness like cancer and were immunocompromised. And if masks are so effective the teachers should be wearing them and acting like the grown ups in the room. And if they have health issues they can teach remotely so kids can socialize and be normal.
Our approach to this virus is myopic and fear driven. Other illnesses are not being txed like cancer, heart disease, stroke, depression, child abuse and spousal abuse (at least here in the states). Down the road I think we will see the collateral damage to people’s health.
Business are failing because our damn governor is looking at cases despite the fact that none of our hospitals are over run. In my area they really never were. Anyway rant over.