World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules
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@stargazer said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@crazy-horse said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
I think stretching it out to a grandparent is too far.
I agree, although it depends on migration trends how long the PI nations (and other nations) will be able to benefit from this new rule. If fewer and fewer people migrate from the Islands to NZ (and Oz or other countries), in three generations, fewer and fewer players will have a PI born grandparent.
For example, a son of Caleb Clarke could still make use of this new rule, because Eroni Clarke was born in Samoa, but a grandson of Caleb cannot.
It's something the PI unions will have to get used to sooner or later. I find the grandparent rule ridiculous.
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@taniwharugby this could be very good for him, having options and something to really aim for...we might see him really break out for chiefs next year
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So how’s it going to work in the real world?
All the stars mentioned going to be happy playing for completely amateur unions against their clubs wishes?
If it forces the PI top brass to get their shit together can only be good. But pissing off your 7 figure payers to play for the PI unions in their current state simply won’t work.
Dan Leo’s doc was mostly eye opening in the shambolic, corrupt way the countries unions were run. I don’t see how that’s changed here.
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@kiwiwomble said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
so, an interesting situation for Josh Ioane, hasn't played for NZ in 2.5 years...but starting to look good formwise again...if you were him do you push for the 3rd 10 spot with the AB's or refocus on Samoa?
First you play well for the Chiefs and become the first choice 10 there. If you can't beat out Bryn Gatland you have no show of being an AB.
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@majorrage said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
So how’s it going to work in the real world?
All the stars mentioned going to be happy playing for completely amateur unions against their clubs wishes?
If it forces the PI top brass to get their shit together can only be good. But pissing off your 7 figure payers to play for the PI unions in their current state simply won’t work.
Dan Leo’s doc was mostly eye opening in the shambolic, corrupt way the countries unions were run. I don’t see how that’s changed here.
clubs cant really stop them for the world cup can they, so we might at least see some upsets then?
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@majorrage said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
So how’s it going to work in the real world?
All the stars mentioned going to be happy playing for completely amateur unions against their clubs wishes?
If it forces the PI top brass to get their shit together can only be good. But pissing off your 7 figure payers to play for the PI unions in their current state simply won’t work.
Dan Leo’s doc was mostly eye opening in the shambolic, corrupt way the countries unions were run. I don’t see how that’s changed here.
spot on, I came in to say something similar. Good players not dependent on the union will force administrators to lift their game. It's really good - World Rugby are rightly cautious about sending money into some unions because of the way the money gets spent. Having quality players interacting, lifting standard and advocating will be good I reckon.
Some of the support/admin decisions are just horrific, the scenes that daylight at RWC of (I think) Samoa not having balls to train with, but board members on the lash every day with union funds are just unacceptable.
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@kiwiwomble said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@taniwharugby this could be very good for him, having options and something to really aim for...we might see him really break out for chiefs next year
If he declares for Samoa, he should have to move to Moana Pasifika the following year. He does have that option available to him but I think I'd stick around until the last minute, as he could declare for Samoa two days before the WC and they'd select him.
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@gt12 i was disappointed he didn't go to MP, i wonder if he feels more connection to his Maori/new zealand heritage than his Samoan
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@kiwiwomble said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@gt12 i was disappointed he didn't go to MP, i wonder if he feels more connection to his Maori/new zealand heritage than his Samoan
I'll bet that he plays for Samoa in the future, but that won't answer your question.
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so, be born in NZ, learn your rugby in NZ, become a good player on our IP and systems. Make the ABs. Get paid well. Use your new profile to jag a fat overseas contract. Take up said contract, knowing full well you can't play for the ABs any more
Have a bit of a whinge, play for another team at the next World Cup.
Have cake. Also eat.
This doesn't "grow the game" this pretty much just means the same guys play at World Cups but in different jerseys. Maybe Samoa and Tonga (who this is aimed at) make a quarter here or there. Big whoop.
Great for Charlie Paitau, who now gts to play at the World Cup AND keep his fat UK contract. Bad for the Tongan bloke who will probably qualify them for the tournament, but lose his RWC spot to Charlie.
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@mariner4life said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
Bad for the Tongan bloke who will probably qualify them for the tournament, but lose his RWC spot to Charlie.
And therefore lose his chance to impress and nab a contract.
Are these blokes going to show up at June/Spring tests under pressure from their French or Japanese paymasters? Yeah nah.
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Overall I think this is a great move leading into a RWC in less than 2 years. There will always be unintended consequences, of course. That's just the way the broad brush works.
Is it going to stop the venality of certain PI Union Admins? Fuck no. It might make it worse if their nations start seeing success and get better financial rewards.
Players aren't going to move back to the Islands to play there for 3 years, so residency is not a valid argument here. As others have stated: once the grandparent rule expires this probably isn't going to be much of a concern - it might have a decade or two to run yet, but eventually the demographics simply don't end up surviving.
This was going to happen anyway, so I think the situation needs to keep evolving. Not like birth rates are suddenly exploding in the PIs anyway.
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@nta Why's it going to stop in a couple of decades? I get that there will be great-grandchildren who will not be eligible, but isn't there still migration from the PIs to NZ & Aus?
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@catogrande said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@gibbon-rib said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@catogrande why do you think they'll be harmful longer term?
Because I think it opens the door for more to chance their arm with a Tier 1 nation knowing that there is always a way back. This will likely be where there is already a dual eligibility as 2 stand down periods might be a bit too long.
The law of unforeseen circumstances.
I've been saying that endlessly. Nice to have my thoughts validated.
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@gt12 said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@kiwiwomble said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@taniwharugby this could be very good for him, having options and something to really aim for...we might see him really break out for chiefs next year
If he declares for Samoa, he should have to move to Moana Pasifika the following year. He does have that option available to him but I think I'd stick around until the last minute, as he could declare for Samoa two days before the WC and they'd select him.
I understand the Samoan and Tongan RUs weren't too happy with MP signing Lincoln McClutchie, because he's not PI eligible. I got the impression from the media around it that his signing was in the end accepted as it was seen a something short-term.
I wouldn't be surprised if we'll see Ioane in the MP jersey from 2023, if he decides to play for Samoa (for example, if he doesn't make the ABs in 2022) and McClutchie (maybe) getting a contract with a NZ franchise.
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@gibbon-rib said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@nta Why's it going to stop in a couple of decades? I get that there will be great-grandchildren who will not be eligible, but isn't there still migration from the PIs to NZ & Aus?
I can't back this up with stats (haven't looked them up), but my guess is that the migration stream from the Islands to NZ/Oz has changed into a trickle?
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@stargazer said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@gibbon-rib said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@nta Why's it going to stop in a couple of decades? I get that there will be great-grandchildren who will not be eligible, but isn't there still migration from the PIs to NZ & Aus?
I can't back this up with stats (haven't looked them up), but my guess is that the migration stream from the Islands to NZ/Oz has changed into a trickle?
Yeah, it's a bit of a fallacy, tbh.
You can see in this graph. That there is a fairly constant flow of migration from Samoa.
There are now 50k Samoan born NZers, where as in 1991 (conveniently a census year and the year of Samoa's first RWC aappearance) there were 43k Samoan born NZers.The difference is the 144k NZ born Samoans as opposed to 85k in 1991.
There will continue to be many many more NZ Samoans no longer eligible for Samoa, but there will also still be a fairly constant supply who are.
There is a Samoa immigration quota of 1100 per year. Doesn't sound much - but that is 0.6% of the Samoan on-island population.
On average 2,218 Samoans gained permanent residency in New Zealand each year over the period 2013 to 2018. 1,058 migrated on average each year from Samoa to New Zealand under the Samoa Quota, a lottery system which allows about 1,100 Samoans every year to migrate to New Zealand if they can find a job. Another 1,109 moved under a family visa, and a much smaller number, 50, did so under a skilled or business visa.
The NZ pathway: how and why Samoans migrate to Australia – part one - Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
After Fiji, Samoa is the biggest source of Pacific migrants to Australia. Stephen Howes and Sherman Surandiran show that 96% of all Samoan migrants to Australia come via New Zealand.
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@stargazer said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@gibbon-rib said in World Rugby Change Eligibigilty Rules:
@nta Why's it going to stop in a couple of decades? I get that there will be great-grandchildren who will not be eligible, but isn't there still migration from the PIs to NZ & Aus?
I can't back this up with stats (haven't looked them up), but my guess is that the migration stream from the Islands to NZ/Oz has changed into a trickle?
I was more looking at falling birth rates in the PIs as a factor, not necessarily immigration plunging.
My point was more general in nature, but I didn't explain it:
Once the system is tested, we're going to see clubs, nations, and unions take a much closer look at how it works in practice. When that happens, we're going to see less people willing to engage in the discussion of picking a player to try them out.
