Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll
-
@taniwharugby said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
@mokey •Peters has said NZ will know who the next government is by the end of the week at the latest
-
@dogmeat said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
15 of you couldn't read the tea leaves....
I'm in that set.
Reckon it'll be less than a week until there is disagreement between LAB NZF or GRN.
It's going to be an exciting few years...
-
@nzzp said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
@dogmeat said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
15 of you couldn't read the tea leaves....
I'm in that set.
Reckon it'll be less than a week until there is disagreement between LAB NZF or GRN.
It's going to be an exciting few years...
don't see why really. winston has behaved himself, mostly at least, in these situations before. he's more of an election year rabble-rouser, that's how he gets his votes.
the greens are irrelevant, they don't get to say a word other than 'we prefer labour to national' -
@reprobate said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
@nzzp said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
@dogmeat said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
15 of you couldn't read the tea leaves....
I'm in that set.
Reckon it'll be less than a week until there is disagreement between LAB NZF or GRN.
It's going to be an exciting few years...
don't see why really. winston has behaved himself, mostly at least, in these situations before. he's more of an election year rabble-rouser, that's how he gets his votes.
the greens are irrelevant, they don't get to say a word other than 'we prefer labour to national'It's policy. National are going to spend the next few years driving wedges between the three parties, and highlighting policy differences and generally winding people up. You're going to see attack lines aplenty.
After 'do you stand by all your statements', will be 'so how come there's no Maori referendum', or 'how come there IS a maori seat referendum'. Then all you need is to wind up a few MPs (new Greens, Ron Mark, other NZ MPS), and it's all on
-
@nzzp said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
@reprobate said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
@nzzp said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
@dogmeat said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
15 of you couldn't read the tea leaves....
I'm in that set.
Reckon it'll be less than a week until there is disagreement between LAB NZF or GRN.
It's going to be an exciting few years...
don't see why really. winston has behaved himself, mostly at least, in these situations before. he's more of an election year rabble-rouser, that's how he gets his votes.
the greens are irrelevant, they don't get to say a word other than 'we prefer labour to national'It's policy. National are going to spend the next few years driving wedges between the three parties, and highlighting policy differences and generally winding people up. You're going to see attack lines aplenty.
Bennett, Joyce, Collins, Carter, Coleman, Tolley, Finlayson et al are going to have a fucking field day against all these fresh faced newbies.
-
@mokey Not Coleman - he's a lazy shit. Although he does have eyes on the leadership so he might pull finger.
The immediate danger for Nats I think is English deciding fuck this I've had enough. Any political party is by definition full of egos who think they should be head honcho (e.g. Coleman). Power is what keeps them in line.
I don't see a challenge to English at the moment - maybe in 12 mths if govt is doing well and the National MP's start to think they might not get back into power or even lose their seats.
But if for whatever reason (and who could really blame him) English decides he doesn't want to put himself and his family through the wringer again - then it's all on and Adern will be the winner.
-
@nta said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
Are you done now?
Fuck's sake I thought WE were ordinary at politics.We certainly aren't done yet and I don't think it will be ordinary - just ineffective and useless.Bitching and infighting just about to start. Will no doubt be some jostling for power whilst nothing actually happens as far as the "change" that we apparently voted for goes.
Yeah nah, we got this.
You do have very unlikable politicians though and the US Trumps us both.
-
you guys all know that MMP is meant to work by parties working together and finding common ground, compromising and behaving like adults eh?
now i understand having limited faith in the participants doing that - and pollys in general - but if everyone thinks this is going to be a clusterfuck simply because one party is not in sole charge, then why not just go back to FPP?
oh, because that is a shit system, that's why.
-
@reprobate said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
parties working together and finding common ground, compromising and behaving like adults eh?
I suspect that will be the problem.
-
@reprobate said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
you guys all know that MMP is meant to work by parties working together and finding common ground, compromising and behaving like adults eh?
now i understand having limited faith in the participants doing that - and pollys in general - but if everyone thinks this is going to be a clusterfuck simply because one party is not in sole charge, then why not just go back to FPP?
oh, because that is a shit system, that's why.
Labour could no doubt work with the Greens and NZF in isolation. But when you have the Greens and NZF in the same government, well, grab your popcorn. Remember the Greens branded Winnie a racist during the campaign, and he didn't exactly let it slide...
-
@reprobate said in Is Winnie going Labour Or National Poll:
you guys all know that MMP is meant to work by parties working together and finding common ground, compromising and behaving like adults eh?
now i understand having limited faith in the participants doing that - and pollys in general - but if everyone thinks this is going to be a clusterfuck simply because one party is not in sole charge, then why not just go back to FPP?
oh, because that is a shit system, that's why.
Shit is in the eye of the beholder though I guess. I think MMP is a shit system.
-
Was listening to the Spinoff's politics podcast (Gone By Lunchtime), and Ben Thomas (National staffer from 2008, so he'd have a good idea) downplayed how much impact a large opposition will have because:
- All oppositions get a lot of questions in the House and generally coordinate better than they are given credit for
- Government resources dwarf opposition resources
- A lot of the current National ministers aren't that knowledgeable of the details of their portfolios (Bennett and Coleman are particularly bad, apparently) so without departmental support, they won't be effective
Not stated at that point of the podcast, but Labour get to choose the Speaker, who will almost certainly be Trevor Mallard, so that might have some sort of impact (ideally Speakers would not be biased, but most of them tend to favour the government that appointed them).
-
I just spent some time reading about MMP, hearing that its a shit system.
MMP has been sent to two referenda in NZ and won both times, if only just (53% in 2003 originally and 56% in 2011). That was after a long process into electoral reform.
Are those percentage wins due in part to which government was most recently elected?
Is there another system that would be preferred?
Because here we have any number of systems depending which election you're talking about - tho we're burdened by having states as well as federal government.
FPP obviously cops flak for not necessarily being representational. But our preference system(s) here allow parties to basically sell their allegiances anyway, to a party you may not necessarily like. So does it really make a difference?
-
@nta I agree with you, basically all systems will produce results which are anomalous or upsetting from time to time. FPP produced a number of results where the party with the most votes did not win the most seats, or where coalitions left the party with the most seats and votes in opposition or where smaller parties with high numbers of votes won no seats at all. If you lived in Avon (now Christchurch East - my electorate) or Wallace (now Clutha-Southland), a vote for anything other than Labour or National respectively was a lost vote, where now those votes still have meaning.
So, is MMP ideal - no. Is it better than FPP - I say it is because FPP produced more anomalies, others may say it isn't. Is there a better system - maybe, but I don't know if it would be much better.