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@Nepia said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Refusing to do lockdown to spite the govt for unrelated failings seems a bit silly.
It's not spite. Lockdown isn't doing anything. We still have it.
So do we keep doing this indefinitely?
This is not true. It stops the spread. On the ABC they mentioned the modelling done Melbourne, and on the day they hit roughly 700 cases the modelling suggested there would be over five times that number if they hadn't locked down.
I'm not talking Melbourne either. This is the NZ virus thread. The lock down here is different.
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@Anonymous yeah we have come too far down this path to change tact completely, but I do think we can still take a slightly different path without going back to L3 or fucking L4...
I am sure there are high level talks of how NZ will deal with this sans a vaccine but for Joe Public it seems the current plan is lets wait for a vaccine....hey maybe they are privy to alot more info about how far along vaccine testing and trials are than is out there in the media
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Honestly, how confident is anybody that we get a vaccine? I suspect several years - but I'm a cynic about lots of things.
We don't even have successful vaccines for the flu (for all strains). Yes, they work and I'm not an anti vaxxer, I'm pro vaccines but this thing will be evolving, just like the flu I think? Comments @Tim ?
So how long do we wait as an island (figuratively) being covid free even if we close the borders?
2 years? 3? 10? I'm happy never to leave again but I don't think many others will be.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Anonymous yeah we have come too far down this path to change tact completely, but I do think we can still take a slightly different path without going back to L3 or fucking L4...
That is essentially a sunk cost fallacy but trying to convince the whole country of that would be political suicide.
I just hope the change in tact wouldn't be a perpetual L2 or L1.5 (to continue the elimination strategy) cause that isn't all that much better in the long term.
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Honestly, how confident is anybody that we get a vaccine? ...
We don't even have successful vaccines for the flu (for all strains). Yes, they work and I'm not an anti vaxxer, I'm pro vaccines but this thing will be evolving, just like the flu I
Got ya mate. Talking about this today wtih a friend - people are thinking of 'polio' or 'measles' vaccine -but it's more likely to be like the Flu vaccine isn't it? Immunity to some specific strains (year out of date), and additional protection for a few others that reduce risk.
@tim seems to know more about this sort of thing ... thoughts?
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Genome testing. Two different sources from overseas were where they came from US and UK?
So not silly at all. Science might be a better word.
Virus origins were from overseas (as all of ours are).
Did they get in due to failings in the system/policy or another way?
Theres still plenty we don’t know about this thing. Are there carriers that don’t show symptoms and can pass tests?
No one is expecting a complete border closure are they? -
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Genome testing. Two different sources from overseas were where they came from US and UK?
So not silly at all. Science might be a better word.
Virus origins were from overseas (as all of ours are).
Did they get in due to failings in the system/policy or another way?
Theres still plenty we don’t know about this thing. Are there carriers that don’t show symptoms and can pass tests?
No one is expecting a complete border closure are they?Legally we can't do a complete border closure for returning citizens, I'm lead to believe.
Yes it is a failure in the system to lockdown 5 million people for 4 weeks to eliminate, and then let it back in and have to do it to 1.5m again. How many times? Should I shut my businesses down? Make my staff redundant?
What other way other than poor border control are you talking about? Surface transmission from overseas is unlikely. So it's people and the way they are managed on arrival. Ideally we need a negative result before they even come home.
Agree that there is plenty that we don't know. Possibly plenty that we aren't being told (without getting into conspiracies) but what has been done hasn't worked.
The buck stops at the top, so my comments about government are valid.
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Honestly, how confident is anybody that we get a vaccine? I suspect several years - but I'm a cynic about lots of things.
We don't even have successful vaccines for the flu (for all strains). Yes, they work and I'm not an anti vaxxer, I'm pro vaccines but this thing will be evolving, just like the flu I think? Comments @Tim ?
So how long do we wait as an island (figuratively) being covid free even if we close the borders?
2 years? 3? 10? I'm happy never to leave again but I don't think many others will be.
One rather counterintuitive observation.
NZ is pursuing an elimination strategy until a vaccine is found.
Let’s assume one is. Then allow period for most major countries to have undertaken widespread vaccinations.
At that point one assumes borders reopen.
But no vaccine is 100% effective. It is inevitable that at that stage COVID will reappear in NZ. And there’ll be no getting rid of it.
So the strategy boils down to border closures/lockdowns until NZ can live with the virus.
Mmmmmmmm.
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@ngatiporoukiwi said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Hi, been a many year stalker because of the great rugby detail I can get while living in the US. Played Prem rugby in Wellington - Rep rugby for Poverty Bay (means I was an average player).
The only reason I'm speaking up now is that it concerns me that lack of information pits us Kiwis against each other, I call home every week and am hoping to be home soon. Live in California, and have been in lockdown coming up to 6 months.
I see a lot of anxiety back home which is understandable, once you understand the impact of the virus (we have over 600k confirmed) I hope that you'd ask the same question I'm asking, the virus will not cease to exist. I'm hopeful the current outbreak in NZ can be contained, I pray that you don't need to go through this. What next? the virus will never be contained, vaccination will never be 100% effective. Has the flu back home been eradicated because of the lockdowns?
Here are the stats of the age group impact of this virus against the flu based on age groups - my mum is now in her 80s, I don't want her to die! even she's against stopping us from living, eradication is impossible, we need to ask those that are locking our country down and destroying people's lives (not their lives, their income), how will we get out of this? Stats of Covid for the US rated against the flu below (I'm in one of the higher risk groups, I know the risk and take it every day I walk outside).
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data
Kia Kaha
Good post!
Those stats are VERY interesting.
The deaths by age band for Covid and pneumonia are remarkably similar across the range. I’d guess the correlation is about 0.9.
Of course a large number died having both, but seems both prey on similar weaknesses in the population.
Keep on trucking!
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
NZ is pursuing an elimination strategy until a vaccine is found.
I think they stated recently they were not looking to eliminate it.
IMO elimination is impossible unless our borders are shut completely, which cant happen for returning citizens, and also for goods coming to NZ< flight crew and all those other touch points.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
NZ is pursuing an elimination strategy until a vaccine is found.
I think they stated recently they were not looking to eliminate it.
IMO elimination is impossible unless our borders are shut completely, which cant happen for returning citizens, and also for goods coming to NZ< flight crew and all those other touch points.
Yes, but it seems non-elimination still means ‘almost none’?
Post a vaccine the infection levels may not be much lower than for flu.
So maybe learn to live with it isn’t such a bad answer PRE vaccine?
Food for thought.
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Mokey said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Firm and active accountability: 'under my watch so I apologize.'
Whilst I agree with you - it doesn't change the fuck ups.
Politically better - yes.
Reality better -no.I was going to ask whether people are dim enough to fall for it...they probably are.
"And she had a warning, too: New Zealand will move back up alert levels if necessary."
Well piss off Mum then - I'm not doing it again. How many fucking times? If you can't sort out the Border?!!
Not doing her election chances much good with comments like that.
Ignoring the election vibe part, I still don’t get the connection being made between the mistakes and this outbreak (and shutdown).
There hasn’t been any shred of evidence linking the outbreak to the border.There are only two choices.
- the virus came through the border or
- it was here all along
We know that because borders are by definition binary. Has anyone with any standing plausibly suggested it remained undetected in the community throughout the period we were in L1? Because if not then it came through the border.
The reason everybody is pissed off is precisely because they haven’t identified the source, and more to the point because they put themselves in such a position with a poorly organised border vetting process that they couldn’t identify the source. And that has got everyone wondering how likely it is that if the cold store worker was patient 1, how likely is it that patient 0 only infected him and there are no other patient 1s and attendant clusters out there?
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If this thread is anything is to go by, and it very well not be, I think the patience with the govt and lockdowns in general is running out.
Most people I talk to, and these are mostly left wing folks, are SICK of Covid and just want to get on with their lives. They are talking in ways they didn't talk about when it the danger Covid posed was unknown some months back.
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@pakman Not really no. It was suggested that there was no evidence the virus came through the border. My point is there isn’t a third alternative, and even the second one is barely plausible.
I’m happy to keep my mind open that the virus never came in through the border and was still in the community all along but if that is true the government should be shame-walked through the streets.
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@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@pakman Not really no. It was suggested that there was no evidence the virus came through the border. My point is there isn’t a third alternative, and even the second one is barely plausible.
I’m happy to keep my mind open that the virus never came in through the border and was still in the community all along but if that is true the government should be shame-walked through the streets.
There’s a big difference between the virus coming through the gaps in the border process and coming through the border in a manner that hasn’t even been identified as a risk.
That is why the frozen food theory was investigated.
Pretty tough to be throwing blame at unknown factors.
The genome tracing shows that this outbreak has no relation to any other known traces. That tells me that if it came directly from a returnee it they have not been sick themselves and they didn’t test positive.So, what are you proposing? A complete border closure? That seems the only solution to avoid these unknown incursions.
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@Frank said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
If this thread is anything is to go by, and it very well not be, I think the patience with the govt and lockdowns in general is running out.
Most people I talk to, and these are mostly left wing folks, are SICK of Covid and just want to get on with their lives. They are talking in ways they didn't talk about when it the danger Covid posed was unknown some months back.
Absolutely. This has been front and centre way past people’s attention span and is a victim of how well we have it controlled where folk can’t see the danger.
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
The genome tracing shows that this outbreak has no relation to any other known traces. That tells me that if it came directly from a returnee it they have not been sick themselves and they didn’t test positive.
That would be fine except for the fact they don't have DNA samples for about 20% of those that have tested positive for COVID at the border.
So the whole we have tested everyone and there isn't a match and so it must have been on frozen beef - don't blame us - it was an act of God, is incredibly spurious and is just a bald faced attempt to spin the story to deflect warranted criticism.
Might as well say there are no Maori in NZ because the 80% we looked into didn't include any Maori.
Coronavirus - New Zealand