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@Crucial said in US Politics:
Biden is in the box seat according to polling but it could easily be a close thing.
Polls. Wasn't Hillary certain of winning? Joe's a bit of a joke with scary policies. In a party full of control freak nutcases. I don't think he has a hope of winning.
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@pakman I'm not going to subscribe to that mouthpiece of Murdoch.(https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/daily-telegraph/)
Murdoch hates China, it is personal.
But China is ramping up these market technologies, whether they meet the target or lie to the West (as is their wont) is yet to be seen. -
@Winger Nationalfile
Don't get me wrong if there was anything like this about Trump it would be leading news across every outlet..doesn't make it right to release though.The Hunter hookers drugs and toes is funny more than anything. Again if it were Don Jr it would be leading news across the globe. Will be interesting to see how this is supressed.
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@Rembrandt
At this stage it is just a loser son doing meth and screwing hookers. Hope there's not worse stuff on there.And I don't believe for a second that there is anything wrong with a meth-head degenerate son using the family name, and suggesting at possible access to Joe Biden, travelling around the world setting up deals and raking in cash for the family. There is absolutely no possibility Joe Biden might just be a little dirty or compromised.
And while I am on the subject, I fully believe in the strongest most emphatic terms that if video evidence of Donald Trump Jnr or Eric Trump came out a few weeks before the election of either doing meth with hookers while it was known either was at the same time doing deals on the family name, the media would give this most despicable, salacious footage any airtime whatsoever. It would in no way be employed to reflect on President Trump.
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@Winger said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Biden is in the box seat according to polling but it could easily be a close thing.
Polls. Wasn't Hillary certain of winning? Joe's a bit of a joke with scary policies. In a party full of control freak nutcases. I don't think he has a hope of winning.
Do you ever look at facts? I'm haven't been making stuff up out of thin air. These polls are what they are.
It has already been explained how these polls relate to the Hillary ones.Yes, at the moment, a fair portion of the media are taking a simplistic view and saying that Biden has it easily. Just as they did with Clinton last time. The problem is that they aren't looking at the actual positions and margins of error.
If you did a count on every state with a poll result for Biden the election would be 338-198How you can equate that to 'no hope of winning' is beyond logic.
What I have been consistently saying is that while Biden is in the box seat, if you read the polls properly, Trump has 'a hope'. It is slim, but not impossible or out of the realms of possibility.
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@Frank they are in the white house in important roles, and part of the sitting presidents inner circle. That's an important distinction imo. If Biden snr has been doing illegal stuff then they should go hard. Hunter falls in that wider sphere of yuck to illegal behavior that seems to run rife through political families and associates.
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@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial
Crucial are there any polls turning current numbers & margins for error into %age chances of winning for each candidate ?Not entirely sure what you mean. The poll results are mostly binary ie they present a result of who wins.
Each one will state a margin of error based on their own methods but the FT tracker uses 5% (quite high) as a margin of to close to call.Edit: they do split out between solid, leaning and tossup if that’s of use. Solid is a strong constant 10% plus margin , leaning is 5-10, toss up is under 5.
Biden has 279 solid and leaning. Trump has 125.
Those numbers settled about 3 weeks ago. The toss up states are a moving feast. -
@Paekakboyz said in US Politics:
@Frank they are in the white house in important roles, and part of the sitting presidents inner circle. That's an important distinction imo. If Biden snr has been doing illegal stuff then they should go hard. Hunter falls in that wider sphere of yuck to illegal behavior that seems to run rife through political families and associates.
Looks like Joe was taking a cut, so relevant for the election.
Pay for access, very Clinton-esque.
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@Paekakboyz said in US Politics:
@Kirwan seems anyone-esque when looking at American politics and big business.
I'm sure all the dignitaries staying at Trump hotels and Mar a Lago are getting cut price deals on their accommodation....
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@nostrildamus said in US Politics:
@pakman I'm not going to subscribe to that mouthpiece of Murdoch.(https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/daily-telegraph/)
Murdoch hates China, it is personal.
But China is ramping up these market technologies, whether they meet the target or lie to the West (as is their wont) is yet to be seen.The Telegraph is not a Murdoch newspaper.
China is World class polluter, and I suspect it’s power requirements are growing massively.
My hunch is they need to ramp up all the supplies they can get, clean and dirty.
This is the single most important issue in the climate change debate.
And BTW NZ’s reliance on Chinese trade is (in an admittedly small way globally) feeding the beast.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in US Politics:
Interesting stuff coming out Lord Ashcroft's US Election Focus Groups in Ohio & Georgia.
Key take is many people have yet to make up their mind, there appears to be lots of shy Trump voters and neither Trump or Biden are lighting people's fires.
Very interesting, thanks. For the second election in a row electors seem to be trying to choose the least bad option.
And views on economy for many outweighing the unpalatable personal characteristics. -
@pakman my apologies I confused them with another paper.
Oh the Barclay brothers!? I heard about them via Martin Clunes tour of Sark. Interesting tax status they have. But I still won't subscribe.
China is a world class polluter but still down in terms of per head of population. I think there is at least one worrying element and that is their military, oh and their servers. And love of luxury goods..and..
but it is so much easier to blame China and India and do nothing oneself. -
@nostrildamus said in US Politics:
@pakman my apologies I confused them with another paper.
Oh the Barclay brothers!? I heard about them via Martin Clunes tour of Sark. Interesting tax status they have. But I still won't subscribe.
China is a world class polluter but still down in terms of per head of population. I think there is at least one worrying element and that is their military, oh and their servers. And love of luxury goods..and..
but it is so much easier to blame China and India and do nothing oneself.I never suggested doing nothing. BUT the THING which does need to be done is to TAX Chinese and Indian imports to remove the competitive advantage they gain from their failure to alter their dirty environmental practices.
Maybe even some clean closer to home manufacture might result, although that may be a pipe dream. -
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Polls take account by having margins of error.
Those margins can be considerable and up to 5%.Margins of error in polls don't do that because that's not what's meant by the margin of error.
What it actually means is given a truly random, unbiased sample with truthful responses we can say with 95% confidence (i.e. there's a 95% probability) that the result for the whole population would be within the margin of error from the result. It's just a calculation of how much random samples can vary based on probability distributions.
Anything else that makes the poll not representative of the population, which is what shy Trump voters would be, aren't covered by this statistic.
https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/
US Politics