-
@Paekakboyz said in US Politics:
@Frank they are in the white house in important roles, and part of the sitting presidents inner circle. That's an important distinction imo. If Biden snr has been doing illegal stuff then they should go hard. Hunter falls in that wider sphere of yuck to illegal behavior that seems to run rife through political families and associates.
Looks like Joe was taking a cut, so relevant for the election.
Pay for access, very Clinton-esque.
-
@Paekakboyz said in US Politics:
@Kirwan seems anyone-esque when looking at American politics and big business.
I'm sure all the dignitaries staying at Trump hotels and Mar a Lago are getting cut price deals on their accommodation....
-
@nostrildamus said in US Politics:
@pakman I'm not going to subscribe to that mouthpiece of Murdoch.(https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/daily-telegraph/)
Murdoch hates China, it is personal.
But China is ramping up these market technologies, whether they meet the target or lie to the West (as is their wont) is yet to be seen.The Telegraph is not a Murdoch newspaper.
China is World class polluter, and I suspect it’s power requirements are growing massively.
My hunch is they need to ramp up all the supplies they can get, clean and dirty.
This is the single most important issue in the climate change debate.
And BTW NZ’s reliance on Chinese trade is (in an admittedly small way globally) feeding the beast.
-
@Victor-Meldrew said in US Politics:
Interesting stuff coming out Lord Ashcroft's US Election Focus Groups in Ohio & Georgia.
Key take is many people have yet to make up their mind, there appears to be lots of shy Trump voters and neither Trump or Biden are lighting people's fires.
Very interesting, thanks. For the second election in a row electors seem to be trying to choose the least bad option.
And views on economy for many outweighing the unpalatable personal characteristics. -
@pakman my apologies I confused them with another paper.
Oh the Barclay brothers!? I heard about them via Martin Clunes tour of Sark. Interesting tax status they have. But I still won't subscribe.
China is a world class polluter but still down in terms of per head of population. I think there is at least one worrying element and that is their military, oh and their servers. And love of luxury goods..and..
but it is so much easier to blame China and India and do nothing oneself. -
@nostrildamus said in US Politics:
@pakman my apologies I confused them with another paper.
Oh the Barclay brothers!? I heard about them via Martin Clunes tour of Sark. Interesting tax status they have. But I still won't subscribe.
China is a world class polluter but still down in terms of per head of population. I think there is at least one worrying element and that is their military, oh and their servers. And love of luxury goods..and..
but it is so much easier to blame China and India and do nothing oneself.I never suggested doing nothing. BUT the THING which does need to be done is to TAX Chinese and Indian imports to remove the competitive advantage they gain from their failure to alter their dirty environmental practices.
Maybe even some clean closer to home manufacture might result, although that may be a pipe dream. -
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Polls take account by having margins of error.
Those margins can be considerable and up to 5%.Margins of error in polls don't do that because that's not what's meant by the margin of error.
What it actually means is given a truly random, unbiased sample with truthful responses we can say with 95% confidence (i.e. there's a 95% probability) that the result for the whole population would be within the margin of error from the result. It's just a calculation of how much random samples can vary based on probability distributions.
Anything else that makes the poll not representative of the population, which is what shy Trump voters would be, aren't covered by this statistic.
https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/
-
@pakman said in US Politics:
I never suggested doing nothing. BUT the THING which does need to be done is to TAX Chinese and Indian imports to remove the competitive advantage they gain from their failure to alter their dirty environmental practices.
The world is shifting East and the idea of the West deciding what is and isn't a competitive advantage is increasingly a no go - as the EU found out when Modi told them he wasn't interested in any India/EU trade deal which interfered with India's internal policy making.
I'll say this for Trump. he has at least recognised the issues the West faces in trade with, say, China and India. His solutions may or may not be the right ones, but he hasn't hid his head in the sand like, say, Merkel has.
-
@Victor-Meldrew I do get the feeling that Merkel is mainly interested in saving what is left of her legacy. Or should I say her perceived legacy.
-
@Victor-Meldrew said in US Politics:
@pakman said in US Politics:
I never suggested doing nothing. BUT the THING which does need to be done is to TAX Chinese and Indian imports to remove the competitive advantage they gain from their failure to alter their dirty environmental practices.
The world is shifting East and the idea of the West deciding what is and isn't a competitive advantage is increasingly a no go - as the EU found out when Modi told them he wasn't interested in any India/EU trade deal which interfered with India's internal policy making.
I'll say this for Trump. he has at least recognised the issues the West faces in trade with, say, China and India. His solutions may or may not be the right ones, but he hasn't hid his head in the sand like, say, Merkel has.
Agree on Trump/Merkel.
China/India climate/competitive advantage issues are complex and holistic. Bottom line is that there is a cost from upholding Western ‘values’.
-
@Catogrande said in US Politics:
@Victor-Meldrew I do get the feeling that Merkel is mainly interested in saving what is left of her legacy. Or should I say her perceived legacy.
And Merkel seems more interested in propping up domestic industries by hiding behind the EU rather than look at the increasing threat from Asian competitors - at the same time expecting the US, via NATO to guarantee their security.
-
@pakman said in US Politics:
Bottom line is that there is a cost from upholding Western ‘values’.
Yep. But will the electorate want to bear the cost of being virtuous or will they expect their politicians to provide a cost and pain-free solution?
-
@Victor-Meldrew said in US Politics:
@pakman said in US Politics:
Bottom line is that there is a cost from upholding Western ‘values’.
Yep. But will the electorate want to bear the cost of being virtuous or will they expect their politicians to provide a cost and pain-free solution?
Spot on. My reading would suggest the majority of the electorate prefer the latter.
-
@Anonymous said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Polls take account by having margins of error.
Those margins can be considerable and up to 5%.Margins of error in polls don't do that because that's not what's meant by the margin of error.
What it actually means is given a truly random, unbiased sample with truthful responses we can say with 95% confidence (i.e. there's a 95% probability) that the result for the whole population would be within the margin of error from the result. It's just a calculation of how much random samples can vary based on probability distributions.
Anything else that makes the poll not representative of the population, which is what shy Trump voters would be, aren't covered by this statistic.
https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/
Good link, thanks.
What I probably should have said is that the 'shy voters' are likely to be within the margins rather than imply that the pollsters allow for them.
From the link ...
What is a Margin of Error?
A margin of error tells you how many percentage points your results will differ from the real population value. For example, a 95% confidence interval with a 4 percent margin of error means that your statistic will be within 4 percentage points of the real population value 95% of the time.So, at the moment there is a 95% chance that Biden will win even if the States within the margin of error all move in one direction.
Trump is counting on both the margin and the polls being wrong. -
Mainstream media complains about the "spread of misinformation" and then plasters the "fake Melania" story all over their websites.
US Politics