-
@Kirwan Trump is a fraud. His only chance of winning is if the uneducated continue to believe his rhetoric. The populous states will vote blue again so it will come down to a few key swing states. The Bush factor may mean that Texas is not as pro-Republican as in previous elections, as they've already indicated they're voting for Clinton.
There is still plenty of time for Clinton, and Trump especially, to fuck up in the televised debates when you can't rely on a teleprompter with scripted responses. And both camps will have more dirt to release in the next month.
-
@Bovidae said in US Election Thread 2016:
@Kirwan Trump is a fraud. His only chance of winning is if the uneducated continue to believe his rhetoric. The populous states will vote blue again so it will come down to a few key swing states. The Bush factor may mean that Texas is not as pro-Republican as in previous elections, as they've already indicated they're voting for Clinton.
There is still plenty of time for Clinton, and Trump especially, to fuck up in the televised debates when you can't rely on a teleprompter with scripted responses. And both camps will have more dirt to release in the next month.
People have been saying that about Trump since before the primaries, and he keeps winning. It's not just uneducated people, it's people pissed off with a system that throws up candidates like Clinton. If enough people vote that normally don't vote, then previous election patterns don't matter that much either.
If I was Trump, I would ask to do the debates without a lectern and see if Clinton can stand up unassisted for an hour under stress.
She has a coughing fit or collapses during the debates, to quote Bill Paxton, it's game over, man.
-
@Bovidae Hilary is a fraud as well, probably even more so TBH given she was actively under investigation when the campaigns kicked off. I don't think it's just the uneducated that are voting for Trump.
Which fraud do you vote for? If I was American I wouldn't know what to do.
-
@No-Quarter said in US Election Thread 2016:
@Bovidae Hilary is a fraud as well, probably even more so TBH given she was actively under investigation when the campaigns kicked off. I don't think it's just the uneducated that are voting for Trump.
Which fraud do you vote for? If I was American I wouldn't know what to do.
Stockpile gasoline?
-
@Kirwan said in US Election Thread 2016:
People have been saying that about Trump since before the primaries, and he keeps winning.
What has he won? He won the primaries - there is nothing to win until November.
I have a real gut feeling that a lot of the projections and assumptions everyone is making (including the pollsters and polling aggregators like 538) are completely wrong. It's similar to the past decade where dozens of once highly predictive economic models had to go in the bin because the assumed interest rates existed >0. Once the negative interest rates were introduced they were useless.
The sheer disdain the electorate has for both candidates (along with decades of familiarity - unlike previous elections) means a lot of our assumptions of voter turnout, what an undecided is and how they will act and even red/blue states are going to be off IMO.
But yeah if she falls over or something that isn't going to be great. One way or another the debates will have a decent impact - at least in the polls.
-
@Donsteppa said in US Election Thread 2016:
For any of Obama's faults - given the alternatives - maybe he could just continue on for another four years.............!
That was the Biden option.
-
@rotated said in US Election Thread 2016:
@Kirwan said in US Election Thread 2016:
People have been saying that about Trump since before the primaries, and he keeps winning.
What has he won? He won the primaries - there is nothing to win until November.
Asked and answered, your honour.
First people said he wouldn't run, wouldn't win a state, wouldn't win the big states, then wouldn't win the nomination. And so it continues. People are confusing them not wanting him to win with the reality he's popular for whatever reason.
-
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Election Thread 2016:
@Bovidae
It is actually just rhetoric to make the claim that only the uneducated favour him. and can you give some evidence of yuor claim that Texas wont stay republican?Plenty of educated people backing Trump. It is the rhetoric of the elite that calls them uneducated because that don't tow the socialize bullshit line. Their are plenty of reasons not to vote Democrat and the economy is the primary one. The unemployment rate is a fraud. The labor participation rate is near historic lows so that close to 95 million Americans who could work are not. It was 80 mill with Obama took office. Look at the US debt: https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php%3Fsrc%3Dhttps://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/files/2015/01/BO_dollarchange.png%26w%3D480&imgrefurl=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/01/07/the-story-behind-obama-and-the-national-debt-in-7-charts/&h=365&w=480&tbnid=fLBhtgaEa2Bx4M:&tbnh=160&tbnw=210&docid=5BtBuIxAKPwAHM&usg=__1G24-Eet8LoCi5avWbvmJDL4uag=&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj68a2U0aHPAhUDrD4KHf6_CTIQ9QEIIjAA#h=365&imgdii=fLBhtgaEa2Bx4M%3A%3BfLBhtgaEa2Bx4M%3A%3ByuAZLMtf2C7BvM%3A&tbnh=160&tbnw=210&w=480
I live here. This economy is not as vibrant as it once was. The place use to look vibrant but even a nice area where I live has lost some luster. While only anecdotal I have never been to so many homes with kids living with there parents still because the jobs aren't there for them. The only vibrant sector in the growth of government and no one can tell me that government is an efficient beast. The stats are endless but you wont get them from a left wing media pissing in the pockets of the Democrats. Now why did I have to enter this fray.
-
@rotated said in US Election Thread 2016:
I have a real gut feeling that a lot of the projections and assumptions everyone is making (including the pollsters and polling aggregators like 538) are completely wrong.
Silver struggled at times during the Dem primary and that race was far more conventional than the Clinton v Trump.
Obviously this tweet is just from someone promoting his prediction market site. However I suspect his line is closer to the truth than the volatile 538 line:
Evidence to back that up? None.
I just don't believe people are switching between candidates that often, or possible voters and likely voters are jumping in and out. -
@rotated said in US Election Thread 2016:
@Kirwan You said he won the primaries and keeps winning. What has there been to win since the primaries?
He tweets out the odd poll that shows him up - are there the "wins"?
I said "before the primaries".
-
@Duluth said in US Election Thread 2016:
@rotated said in US Election Thread 2016:
I have a real gut feeling that a lot of the projections and assumptions everyone is making (including the pollsters and polling aggregators like 538) are completely wrong.
Silver struggled at times during the Dem primary and that race was far more conventional than the Clinton v Trump.
Obviously this tweet is just from someone promoting his prediction market site. However I suspect his line is closer to the truth than the volatile 538 line:
Evidence to back that up? None.
I just don't believe people are switching between candidates that often, or possible voters and likely voters are jumping in and out.I agree completely. Although I'd be more interested if 538 or any of the other prediction services tried to estimate the turnout - aggregating the polls seems a bit easy really.
Since the war voter turnout has varied between 49%-62%. Surely the electorate operates very quite differently in a low turnout vs high turnout.
Gut feeling seems like it will test the 49% - but who knows.
-
@Kirwan said in US Election Thread 2016:
@rotated said in US Election Thread 2016:
@Kirwan You said he won the primaries and keeps winning. What has there been to win since the primaries?
He tweets out the odd poll that shows him up - are there the "wins"?
I said "before the primaries".
OK I misunderstood what you were trying to say. I agree there has been a general skepticism about his ability to be taken seriously - but the primaries are a totally different beast.
-
@No-Quarter said in US Election Thread 2016:
@Bovidae Hilary is a fraud as well, probably even more so TBH given she was actively under investigation when the campaigns kicked off. I don't think it's just the uneducated that are voting for Trump.
Which fraud do you vote for? If I was American I wouldn't know what to do.
"We. Want. Ross. Perot!"
-
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Election Thread 2016:
Wow...... that is appalling.
I almost started feeling bad for the guy, then resumed laughing at him.
US Politics