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@victor-meldrew said in British Politics:
@crucial said in British Politics:
I don't disagree with your point about losing touch but the referendum itself has caused the problem. Why ask such a binary undefined question without any plan or explanation of what Brexit actually meant.
The "people didn't know what Leave actually meant" argument is a pretty shallow one IMHO. It could apply to any election or party manifesto. You could equally argue that point with any future EU integration/changes if there had been a Remain win. (I voted Remain BTW)
The referendum hasn't caused the problem. It's the result and the way politicians and influencers have reacted to it that has caused the problem. It's exposed fault lines in the system which would have remained hidden if the Remain campaign had won. Where it's heading, no-one knows..
I think you are mixing up the wish of the people to separate from Europe 'somehow' with understanding what the definition of 'leave' is.
No context or outline was supplied with the vote leaving things very open to interpretation. Those that want all ties completely and utterly severed are mixed with those that simply didn't want to be part of the EU bureaucracy but would like practical elements such as trade to continue in an equivalent way.There is simply no way that the UK can walk away with no deal. It would be like the 1970s with empty shop shelves, rubbish piling up on the streets etc. It takes a lot of work to untangle a country from a structure it has been meshed in for so long.
Even imagine the chaos at ports and airports. As it is the Border Control cannot cope and the wait times even for Brits to re-enter their own country are horrendous. Throw all of Europe into the non-Brit queue and the lines will back up to the aircraft seats.
Want some fruit and veg? Sorry, it is still in the gridlock at Dover as the customs paperwork is being checked.
All of these practical elements need solutions and those solutions may not end up the same as voters imagined.
Northern Ireland is still not sorted either. May has said that there will be no hard border either on land or between islands. The EU do not want an open border nor do they want to pose an artificial one between Ireland and Europe. That's going to be a fun sticking point.
The funniest thing is that many imagine that Britain is negotiating from either a position of strength, or at least on equal terms. That is, and was always going to be, a dream. The EU hold the cards.
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@victor-meldrew said in British Politics:
@catogrande said in British Politics:
All in all not a good outcome for the Government who decided to pander to the people.
No. This is pretty much a re-run of what happened in 1990-91 with John Major and the Maastricht Treaty. No referendum then.
Same problems but different causes. Major suffered a shrinkage in his majority at the GE and had to wrestle with piston wristed gibbons like the Hamiltons, however that situation was caused by changes in the political climate with no one issue being to blame. What May has to deal with was as a direct result of the referendum.
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@catogrande said in British Politics:
@victor-meldrew said in British Politics:
To be fair to Boris, he did put his hat in the ring and was then screwed by Gove. (faintly disturbing imagery...)
On the face of it yes, but they are both canny politicians and they don't seem too antagonistic towards each other now.
Both spineless. Thank fuck they're not in charge.
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@mikethesnow Yet.
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@catogrande said in British Politics:
@mikethesnow Yet.
They'd have to swap allegiances.
Oh wait, they have form
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@victor-meldrew said in British Politics:
Exactly the same argument on people being conned can be used had Remain won.
Cameron told us voting Brexit could cause war in Europe, Osborne warned of an emergency budget with NHS cuts and big tax increases in the event of a Brexit vote and Nick Clegg warned of hundreds of thousands in refugee camps in Kent....
UK not left yet - none of the above out of the realms of reality.
Or to use your Chloe & Richard analogy on voter power:
Richard Harby-Fairweather* voted remain as he runs an uncompetitive business and recruits almost exclusively cheap Eastern European workers. He wants to remain and is worried that leaving the EU will mean he will have to pay his workforce more and will need to compete for business against global competitors rather than simply operate in a protectionist EU. He is worried shareholders may stop his annual £3m performance bonus.
If he pays the minimum wage, and he has people queuing up for jobs is that his problem? If he doesn't have people queuing up for jobs then it certainly is.
Joe Bamford whose family owns and runs JCB, a hugely successful British company operating in 5 continents, is concerned that the EU's shrinking share of world trade and protectionist policies and tariffs will negativity impact export opportunities and wants what's best for his 12,000 staff in the UK and elsewhere. He has a company vision of growing his company to no.1 in the world and believes the UK should be independent on trade and regulations like Canada, Australia or Japan
Joe is a fair example, but does not compare to Chloe. I don't think I'm wrong to say that for every Joe, there are at least 100 Chloe's.
Totally agree with you that the politicians are fucking things up though
"I was told something similar to this by a FTSE 250 COO last year
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@catogrande said in British Politics:
@victor-meldrew said in British Politics:
Don't buy that. Unless there was some grand conspiracy by Boris and Gove to ensure they didn't become PM to ensure Boris could resign as Foreign Secretary two years later
it is within the bounds of possibility that they put their heads together to come up with a way they could dodge the Premiership without actually saying "No" to it. Let's face it neither of them fought very hard for it. Rolled over faster than Neymar.
Certainly saved them having to back up their rhetoric with action.
Even now they snipe from the sidelines with no realistic alternatives.
It's pure political egotism. I will give May credit for at least wearing the personal rubbish in order to keep the country running -
@catogrande said in British Politics:
Same problems but different causes. Major suffered a shrinkage in his majority at the GE and had to wrestle with piston wristed gibbons like the Hamiltons
No. it was because he joined the ERM (the Euro precurser) and signed up to the Maastricht treaty against many in his own party and very much against the public mood.
Joining the ERM, in particular, was an unmitigated political disaster which destroyed the Tories electoral chances for the next 3 elections.
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@majorrage said in British Politics:
If he pays the minimum wage, and he has people queuing up for jobs is that his problem? If he doesn't have people queuing up for jobs then it certainly is.
Which neatly explains why the electorate rejected Richard's pleas to stay in the EU. He's perfectly happy to import labour from the EU so he can pay the lowest possible to his workers and depress wages for local people. And then shakes his head in disbelief when people he regards as stupid and ill-informed vote to change the system.
Stupider than Chloe Jones IMHO
Joe is a fair example, but does not compare to Chloe. I don't think I'm wrong to say that for every Joe, there are at least 100 Chloe's.
The Chloe's have been left behind, marginalised, called stupid, feckless and generally treated like shit by governments of all flavours and by business for years. The political establishment ignored them - and handed them on a plate to the likes of Farage and the Leave campaign
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@crucial said in British Politics:
The funniest thing is that many imagine that Britain is negotiating from either a position of strength, or at least on equal terms. That is, and was always going to be, a dream. The EU hold the cards.
The EU has made it clear it doesn't want the UK to leave. It will lose the UK's financial contribution and the risk of a low-tax, low tariff, Singapore-style economy (if the UK went down that route ) attracting business would probably terrify them. They are just as keen for a deal as the UK
As Barnier has said “No deal is the worst solution for everybody. It would be a huge economic problem for the UK and also for the EU. I’m not working for that deal, I’m working for a deal.”
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@victor-meldrew said in British Politics:
@majorrage said in British Politics:
If he pays the minimum wage, and he has people queuing up for jobs is that his problem? If he doesn't have people queuing up for jobs then it certainly is.
Which neatly explains why the electorate rejected Richard's pleas to stay in the EU. He's perfectly happy to import labour from the EU so he can pay the lowest possible to his workers and depress wages for local people. And then shakes his head in disbelief when people he regards as stupid and ill-informed vote to change the system.
I get accused on here of being some kind of Marxist but even I have to dispute that view.
Richard has a business only because he can find workers willing to work at his cost structure. Those workers are not living in poverty and the same opportunities are available to locals as those they have taken up.
Those people who won't work for Richard want to blame someone else for their own attitudes being shown up by 'foreigners'.
When I first lived over here it was kiwis and aussies doing lots of the hospitality work and building labour. We were happy to get stuck in and work where the locals would turn their noses up at the chance. Now it's Eastern Europeans doing the same.
I have witnessed first hand a workplace where almost every day a 'Euro' would ask for work and those taken on were hard working. I was on the same pay as they would have been in a relative position.
The business owners were actually very pro-Brexit even though they whenever they employed a 'local' it wouldn't last out a day or two.
I call bullshit on the jobs taken by others argument. Remove the 'others' and the job will disappear as the companies will struggle to fill them.
Then you are still left with unemployable and less business to pay for their benefits. -
@victor-meldrew said in British Politics:
@catogrande said in British Politics:
Same problems but different causes. Major suffered a shrinkage in his majority at the GE and had to wrestle with piston wristed gibbons like the Hamiltons
No. it was because he joined the ERM (the Euro precurser) and signed up to the Maastricht treaty against many in his own party and very much against the public mood.
Joining the ERM, in particular, was an unmitigated political disaster which destroyed the Tories electoral chances for the next 3 elections.
There were many reasons that Major suffered the reduced majority (and it was that reduced majority that caused the commonality that you previously referred to, not any of the peripheral issues you’ve brought up) most of which he inherited. The build up to the Maastricht agreement, ERM etc were part of that.
The Tories disasterous 1997 election was a result of a slow burn against the unpopular but continued policies allied to the appalling behaviour of a number of their MPs (note Hamilton referred to above. The ERM fiasco was really only a small part of it.) That they became un-electable for the next three elections owes much to that and much to Blair re- inventing Labour.
We have a history of fairly long periods of one party domination followed by a real pushback. In post war years see Churchill, Eden, MacMillan and then the night of blood that saw Wilson into power. Oddly enough, all the big Conservative players declined to follow MacMillan and let someone else take the poisoned chalice - ring any bells? We then had a period of Labour domination albeit briefly interrupted by a slender Tory majority. Then the Thatcher landslide and you know the rest.
Current position is something of an anomaly going by history of the last 70 years. The way Labour is now ought to leave them in the wilderness for years. Cameron’s stupid decision to allow the referendum and the incompetence of his campaigning is the difference.
The man is a political idiot. He had it all and royally fucked it up.
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@crucial said in British Politics:
Richard has a business only because he can find workers willing to work at his cost structure. Those workers are not living in poverty and the same opportunities are available to locals as those they have taken up.
Those people who won't work for Richard want to blame someone else for their own attitudes being shown up by 'foreigners'I'm anything but a Marxist - Robert Owen is probably my business hero.
Worked in the UK and Europe for too many years to mention and I've never found much difference overall in work attitude between British workers and their European, Oz or Kiwi workers. If anything I've found UK workers more flexible - more so than German or French workers. Management is another story however.....
I have seen business plans by UK companies run by Richard's which have been pretty explicit about reducing labour costs by sacking UK employees and advertising in Eastern Europe for people to work at minimum wage and living in hostels instead.
The locals don't have the same opportunities - they have a choice of having their wages reduced or going on benefits while still needing to house and feed their families - while EU workers often live 2-3 to a room claiming UK benefits for their wife and kids still living in Poland, Romania etc. And the fucked-up UK benefits system actually rewards employers who do this by subsidising the lower wages.
Politicians and employers like Richard - generally too short-sighted, incompetent and frankly thick, to understand things like productivity and the importance of local communities to their business - then say they can't understand why people voted for Brexit.
No doubt Richard is now campaigning for a 2nd referendum.
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@catogrande said in British Politics:
The ERM fiasco was really only a small part of it.
It was the defining moment though. Crashing out of the ERM destroyed the Tories reputation for economic confidence and they never recovered (check out the opinion poll figures).
Bloody ironic as Major and Ken Clarke then delivered arguably the strongest UK economy in years. Some would say so strong it took the Great Moron over a decade to fuck it up
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@catogrande said in British Politics:
Cameron’s stupid decision to allow the referendum and the incompetence of his campaigning is the difference.
Think decision to hold the referendum was sensible as it should have settled the issue in favour of EU membership once and for all according to polls at the time. A Remain vote would have spiked UKIP and the growing anti-EU mood in Labour (Corbyn and the Left have always disliked the EU)
Campaign was worse than incompetent - it took people for fools, patronised them and insulted their intelligence. Getting foreign leaders like Obama involved was particularly stupid.
The EU were even stupider. Who'd want to stay in the EU when it's led by a loon who believed a Brexit vote "would mean the end of Western civilisation" FFS.
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@victor-meldrew said in British Politics:
@catogrande said in British Politics:
The ERM fiasco was really only a small part of it.
It was the defining moment though. Crashing out of the ERM destroyed the Tories reputation for economic confidence and they never recovered (check out the opinion poll figures).
Bloody ironic as Major and Ken Clarke then delivered arguably the strongest UK economy in years. Some would say so strong it took the Great Moron over a decade to fuck it up
You're right but I would argue it's not in context of the discussion re the referendum.
On a scale of fuck ups though I'd place the ERM balls up somewhere behind Gordon Brown announcing he was going to sell a load of our gold reserves sometime before he actually did. Only fair to give the speculators a little time to get prepared.
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@catogrande said in British Politics:
@victor-meldrew said in British Politics:
@catogrande said in British Politics:
The ERM fiasco was really only a small part of it.
It was the defining moment though. Crashing out of the ERM destroyed the Tories reputation for economic confidence and they never recovered (check out the opinion poll figures).
Bloody ironic as Major and Ken Clarke then delivered arguably the strongest UK economy in years. Some would say so strong it took the Great Moron over a decade to fuck it up
You're right but I would argue it's not in context of the discussion re the referendum.
On a scale of fuck ups though I'd place the ERM balls up somewhere behind Gordon Brown announcing he was going to sell a load of our gold reserves sometime before he actually did. Only fair to give the speculators a little time to get prepared.
To be fair I thought it was a stroke of genius. I took a couple of kilos myself at $280. I still have it.
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Just worth noting the referendum was won with 51.9% to 48.1%
That is bloody close so for all this "will of the people" bollocks entirely ignores that nearly half (not quite, I fully acknowledge leave won) of those who voted wanted to remain.
I think the mandate that gives is to leave but to also consider what a massive chunk of the electorate want which is to retain ties.
It has left us with a massive clusterfuck of a situation and the Tories are falling apart under the strain.
Also, it was not clear what BREXIT meant with plenty of leave campaigners claiming we could replicate other deals that are essentially EU light.
Personally I would like another vote as I don't think people were well informed the first time with clear campaign breaches from leave and greater context of what it means. I still think a significant amount of people would still want it but I suspect the result would flip.
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@davesofthunder said in British Politics:
Just worth noting the referendum was won with 51.9% to 48.1%
Personally I would like another vote as I don't think people were well informed the first time with clear campaign breaches from leave and greater context of what it means. I still think a significant amount of people would still want it but I suspect the result would flip.Yep.
Never underestimate the British appetite for Status Quo
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@mikethesnow said in British Politics:
@davesofthunder said in British Politics:
Just worth noting the referendum was won with 51.9% to 48.1%
Personally I would like another vote as I don't think people were well informed the first time with clear campaign breaches from leave and greater context of what it means. I still think a significant amount of people would still want it but I suspect the result would flip.Yep.
Never underestimate the British appetite for Status Quo
or even Status Quo lite with no John Coghlan and Alan Lancaster.
British Politics