-
@antipodean said in Brexit:
@Catogrande It's ironic that we're now in a position where whether or not we leave with no deal is probably going to be decided by the EU.
How? You just leave. Rip the band-aid off and deal with the consequences. Humans are remarkably adaptable.
For sure. One way or another we'll muddle through, like we always do. My point though wasn't that we couldn't make our own decision but that we likely wouldn't. Not by March 29th anyway and that means it will be the EU's decision. Things might change in the seven working days we have left but I doubt it. Extension is at the mercy of the EU, Parliament has said no to a no deal exit. Whose decision do you think it will be?
-
@Rembrandt said in Brexit:
So can Italy reject an extension request from the UK?
Surely they aren't exactly on happy terms with the EU.
My understanding is that it needs a unanimous vote to allow the extension, therefore, yes, Italy could veto it.
-
I am wondering if anyone on here thinks a 2nd referendum would be a good idea. And if so, why?
As you may have sussed, I voted remain, but I really cannot see the benefit of a further referendum. No way it could again be on a simple leave/stay option. We've done that, so end of. A suggestion has been going around that it should be along the lines of go with X deal/stay. That to me is almost impossible. Firstly the fucking MPs cannot find an acceptable deal. Secondly any deal will be chock full of complexity and to expect the majority of the electorate to actually read the full details of the deal let alone understand all the ramifications would be fanciful. Dealing with that shit is what we vote the politicians in for.
So no, for me we just have to deal with what we've got ourselves in to. Trouble is, we're not dealing with it.
-
I just came across this and thought I'd post it here as an illustration to those that think immigration and racism were not part of the dynamics of Brexit.
![0_1553067255909_e06c3dc1-2655-4055-8a7d-d92edc5851eb-image.png](Uploading 14%) https://scontent-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/53921540_2365058546860422_4141549114271727616_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_ht=scontent-lht6-1.xx&oh=e6220bef4e4fd0d43137f0fb8ee34709&oe=5D0777FA
-
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
I just came across this and thought I'd post it here as an illustration to those that think immigration and racism were not part of the dynamics of Brexit.
![0_1553067255909_e06c3dc1-2655-4055-8a7d-d92edc5851eb-image.png](Uploading 14%) https://scontent-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/53921540_2365058546860422_4141549114271727616_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_ht=scontent-lht6-1.xx&oh=e6220bef4e4fd0d43137f0fb8ee34709&oe=5D0777FA
I don't think anyone believes immigration wasn't part of the decision process for many. The big bug bear is people automatically being branded as racists for pointing out there are significant issues with mass immigration.
-
@Rembrandt Yeah I agree with you there and in truth I feel it is just the opposite side of the same coin, bigoted and lazy.
-
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
I am wondering if anyone on here thinks a 2nd referendum would be a good idea. And if so, why?
As you may have sussed, I voted remain, but I really cannot see the benefit of a further referendum. No way it could again be on a simple leave/stay option. We've done that, so end of. A suggestion has been going around that it should be along the lines of go with X deal/stay. That to me is almost impossible. Firstly the fucking MPs cannot find an acceptable deal. Secondly any deal will be chock full of complexity and to expect the majority of the electorate to actually read the full details of the deal let alone understand all the ramifications would be fanciful. Dealing with that shit is what we vote the politicians in for.
So no, for me we just have to deal with what we've got ourselves in to. Trouble is, we're not dealing with it.
I agree with all of that. I think at one point ages ago there was potential to use a further referendum to gain mandate for an approach (or register a change of mind) but that point has well passed.
As has been experienced the biggest problem is that referendums fix a position which then take away negotiating power. May's biggest fuck up was doubling down on this by fixing a date.
She has done the right thing by trying hard to get through a deal that causes the least pain, it's just that the deal that was negotiated was shite because UK couldn't stand very firm.The Irish border problem was also waived away for years as a 'we'll muddle through' until they realised that muddling through wasn't a viable option.
-
Another vote would be ridiculous, but I suspect EU isn't going to agree to an extension without one. I'm just so sick of May's deal. It's clearly a piece of shit, which gives the EU the upper hand over the UK. Yet, she continues to try and peddle it through, as she has zero other option.
It won't surprise me if we end up leaving without a deal. The clusterfuck won't be as large as many are predicting, but it will be significant for a lot of people. If my personal circumstances didn't dictate that it's better for me personally for the UK to stay in, I'd be all for leaving without a deal. There is too much money in the UK for it fail. A lot of people talk about the negatives, but a lot of the pointers are suggesting otherwise. UK employment is the highest it's been in a long time, the economy isn't doing so bad.
House prices are on everybody's lips (especially around London), but our flat in London got into a bidding war when we rented it out. We literally got offered asking within 3 hours of listing it. And that story isn't uncommon, plenty of our friends/family are saying the same thing. So buyers are keeping quiet at the moment, but the real drivers (population increase, supply/demand) are still there.
The reality for me though is that I need an orderly brexit for my current job & a business idea I have been working on won't succeed with the GBP at 1.33. I still speak to a lot of economists who all say the fair value is around 1.50-1.55, so I've not lost hope as yet.
Side note. In talk with economists Sydney/Melbourne house prices and starting a GFC 2 is something being talked about more and more.
-
@MajorRage The theoretical benefit of another vote would be to get an actual mandate to do something. The politicians have failed miserably so they need to find a way through.
The problem is that the politicians now won't be able to agree on what question to ask. May's deal vs no deal? Deal vs remain? No deal vs fantasy managed no deal. Labour will also want their fantasy deal on the table. So I think this will also get bogged down.
A general election would, in theory, also work, but in all likelihood, no party will run with a coherent manifesto on Brexit so nothing will really change.
I agree that May's deal is rubbish. Which is what you get when you chuck all leverage away at the beginning of the process.
-
@Catogrande The more I think about things the more I'm starting to put a lot of the blame of how things are now on our media. They are very lazy, they lie, misrepresent, breakdown complex issues into a dangerous binary argument and throw fuel on fires just so they can report on the blaze.
-
I'd throw it in the bin and start again. The EU is (and I would do the same if I was them) saying f-off, this is what we agreed, thats that.
Basically, it's not Brexit. For the transition period, we stay bound by all the customs unions, and we can't leave without the EU agreeing. And if this deadlock can't be broken, then Northern Ireland remains in the custom union, whilst Great Britain doesn't. Which breaks up the UK.
In my view, the UK went into the negotiations extremely fearful of a no-deal Brexit and agreed to all sorts of things which the public was never going to like. The DUP holding the ruling majority also gave them far too much say in the whole thing. The UK let the EU know they held all the cards, and then tried to negotiate with them. By voting out the no-no-deal Brexit, they gave them even more power.
Ultimately, what everybody needs to understand, is that there is no solution which can please more than about 40% of the UK, let alone everybody. I'm more bored of the whole thing than anything else, if I'm honest.
I know what I'd do if I was May. And fuck all people will agree with this. I'd go to the EU, stand in front of them (behind closed doors) and say if you agree to open discussions around free movement of people, I'll withdraw article 50 and we can start again. If the UK is able to gain some restriction on free movement of people, a re-vote would see Remain win conclusively and we could all move on. The EU know this too .. but refuse to budge. All my working life has taught me that when one of your biggest players (GB, Fra, Ger) wants to discuss something, you take it on board, otherwise they could do something which puts your whole proposal at risk. They didn't. Hence, Brexit.
Won't happen, and I stated previously, I benefit more by us staying in, so I ain't impartial.
-
@Calf It doesn't matter what happens. May is just going to continue to try and get her deal through parliament. Again, and again, and again.
She's writing to the EU today for a short extension. So a short extension means one of two options. No deal or the turd-of-a-deal.
Seriously, FFS doesn't even begin to start covering where it's at.
-
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
I am wondering if anyone on here thinks a 2nd referendum would be a good idea. And if so, why?
As you may have sussed, I voted remain, but I really cannot see the benefit of a further referendum. No way it could again be on a simple leave/stay option. We've done that, so end of. A suggestion has been going around that it should be along the lines of go with X deal/stay. That to me is almost impossible. Firstly the fucking MPs cannot find an acceptable deal. Secondly any deal will be chock full of complexity and to expect the majority of the electorate to actually read the full details of the deal let alone understand all the ramifications would be fanciful. Dealing with that shit is what we vote the politicians in for.
So no, for me we just have to deal with what we've got ourselves in to. Trouble is, we're not dealing with it.
A second referendum forced on the citizens because their MPs fucked around would be a terrible blow on democracy.
-
@antipodean said in Brexit:
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
I am wondering if anyone on here thinks a 2nd referendum would be a good idea. And if so, why?
As you may have sussed, I voted remain, but I really cannot see the benefit of a further referendum. No way it could again be on a simple leave/stay option. We've done that, so end of. A suggestion has been going around that it should be along the lines of go with X deal/stay. That to me is almost impossible. Firstly the fucking MPs cannot find an acceptable deal. Secondly any deal will be chock full of complexity and to expect the majority of the electorate to actually read the full details of the deal let alone understand all the ramifications would be fanciful. Dealing with that shit is what we vote the politicians in for.
So no, for me we just have to deal with what we've got ourselves in to. Trouble is, we're not dealing with it.
A second referendum forced on the citizens because their MPs fucked around would be a terrible blow on democracy.
Something is going to be forced on citizens because the MP's fucked around. It's a matter of what.
-
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
I'd throw it in the bin and start again. The EU is (and I would do the same if I was them) saying f-off, this is what we agreed, thats that.
From a strategic perspective or because that is how you would approach negotiation.
The EU's unwillingness at this point borders on bad faith IMO. With any bilateral trade agreement that might be struck it is pretty standard that in order to get the support of the crossbench/upper house there will need to be tweaks and amendments in order to get the thing passed.
While the EU may be contemptuous of UK's sovereignty it doesn't change the fact in order for this proposal to become a deal it needs to pass the Commons. They are the only ones who can agree to any deal and it's been clearly rejected and for obvious reasons many of which you list.
Simply put - it's a dick move for the EU to not see the situation and refuse to reopen negotiations when it is abundantly clear the deal is unpalatable for the other party. Likewise, if May threw the proposal up for a single vote with no lobbying and went back to the EU demanding to reopen I would say the same thing - but she has gone far beyond what is reasonable to try to sell this deal.
Politics aside it truly amazing how catastrophically bad May has handled this purely as a negotiator. If in any negotiation the other party isn't 100% clear that you will take no deal rather than a bad deal you are in for a bad time.
-
@Rembrandt said in Brexit:
@Catogrande The more I think about things the more I'm starting to put a lot of the blame of how things are now on our media. They are very lazy, they lie, misrepresent, breakdown complex issues into a dangerous binary argument and throw fuel on fires just so they can report on the blaze.
This is a big part of the point made by many after the result which got shouted down as being 'remoaners'. The bullshit, lies and misinformation perpetuated by the media (on both sides) created an unreliable result especially if the 'closeness' is looked at as a margin of error.
If you then take into account the demographic fact that he only education level bracket to vote over 50% for leave was that of 'pre-sixth form college' it is no wonder that accusations of 'you didn't understand what you voted for and were easily swayed by the bullshit' were bandied about. -
@antipodean said in Brexit:
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
I am wondering if anyone on here thinks a 2nd referendum would be a good idea. And if so, why?
As you may have sussed, I voted remain, but I really cannot see the benefit of a further referendum. No way it could again be on a simple leave/stay option. We've done that, so end of. A suggestion has been going around that it should be along the lines of go with X deal/stay. That to me is almost impossible. Firstly the fucking MPs cannot find an acceptable deal. Secondly any deal will be chock full of complexity and to expect the majority of the electorate to actually read the full details of the deal let alone understand all the ramifications would be fanciful. Dealing with that shit is what we vote the politicians in for.
So no, for me we just have to deal with what we've got ourselves in to. Trouble is, we're not dealing with it.
A second referendum forced on the citizens because their MPs fucked around would be a terrible blow on democracy.
It isn't a terrible blow to democracy if the result of a referendum has been tried to be implemented and the options are found to not be agreeable to the people.
You would not find a majority for either May's deal or 'no deal'.
That said a second referendum (even if to try and prove my statement above) would only add another level of complexity to the situation and would end up slanted toward 'no decision'.This mess all stems back to those that agreed to the referendum not asking themselves the question 'what happens if they vote yes?' and recognising the risk they were taking. If they hadn't been so self serving and arrogant they could have still held a vote but offered plans.
Brexit