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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
@jegga Other than his opinion I have seen nothing to support Joyces fiscal hole.
He fucked up National's last election campaign and needs to move on.
In terms of the infrastructure spend Feb's announcements will be interesting. Not sure precisely what is shovel ready? Other than maybe throwing a heap of money at some low tech safety initiatives I struggle with what could kick off straightaway.
Isn’t going from a surplus to a large deficit a hole?
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
@jegga Other than his opinion I have seen nothing to support Joyces fiscal hole.
He fucked up National's last election campaign and needs to move on.
In terms of the infrastructure spend Feb's announcements will be interesting. Not sure precisely what is shovel ready? Other than maybe throwing a heap of money at some low tech safety initiatives I struggle with what could kick off straightaway.
I read an article pretty recently that laid out pretty clearly with facts how Joyce was correct and the fiscal hole is very real.
But it seems to be one of those partisan issues where sides are taken and proof is subjective. National supporters see the hole, Labour supporters do not.
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@Kirwan the last two years the fiscal surplus has been increasing. Joyce's fiscal hole was fake news. The surplus for the June 30th year was 7.5 Billion - the highest for a decade. Where's the fiscal hole? We now have a short term projected deficit because of capex not opex. Unless we are talking at cross purposes.
@Toddy I know of plenty of govt depts / funded organisations (think every DHB) that never make their Budgets. Isn't necessarily reflective of the country's overall financial position.
I think Robertson has done OK. Pretty much a steady as she goes approach - now relaxing the purse strings a bit on infrastructure
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback interested to see the article. I've heard Hootton (hardly a pinko) lampoon Joyce for the missing numbers.
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan the last two years the fiscal surplus has been increasing. Joyce's fiscal hole was fake news. The surplus for the June 30th year was 7.5 Billion - the highest for a decade. Where's the fiscal hole? We now have a short term projected deficit because of capex not opex. Unless we are talking at cross purposes.
@Toddy I know of plenty of govt depts / funded organisations (think every DHB) that never make their Budgets. Isn't necessarily reflective of the country's overall financial position.
I think Robertson has done OK. Pretty much a steady as she goes approach - now relaxing the purse strings a bit on infrastructure
Fake news?? errr no
not the article, but still interesting.
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Fair enough So Bagrie says there will be a defecit in the future but that Robertson is making all the right calls.
Damning stuff.
Seriously there is so much to call out the government for but financial mismanagement isn't really one of them.
It is why it is another inept strategy of Bridges over the infrastructure spend. He's focussing on the debt when he should be applauding Labours intent but seriously challenging Labours ability to deliver citing Kiwibuild Light Rail etc. The couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery approach
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback that article covers what has happened with the Gov Dep I've heard about. There are multiple initiatives expiring at the same time that need to be renewed. Costs have gone up a sh.tload completely blowing what was budgeted.
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
Fair enough So Bagrie says there will be a defecit in the future but that Robertson is making all the right calls.
Damning stuff.
Seriously there is so much to call out the government for but financial mismanagement isn't really one of them.
It is why it is another inept strategy of Bridges over the infrastructure spend. He's focussing on the debt when he should be applauding Labours intent but seriously challenging Labours ability to deliver citing Kiwibuild Light Rail etc. The couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery approach
No actually he is just saying that Joyce was right about the fiscal hole. You know the thing you called fake news.
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@Toddy said in NZ Politics:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback that article covers what has happened with the Gov Dep I've heard about. There are multiple initiatives expiring at the same time that need to be renewed. Costs have gone up a sh.tload completely blowing what was budgeted.
That was exactly what Joyce was saying the Labour books didnt cover increases properly.
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan the last two years the fiscal surplus has been increasing. Joyce's fiscal hole was fake news. The surplus for the June 30th year was 7.5 Billion - the highest for a decade. Where's the fiscal hole? We now have a short term projected deficit because of capex not opex. Unless we are talking at cross purposes.
@Toddy I know of plenty of govt depts / funded organisations (think every DHB) that never make their Budgets. Isn't necessarily reflective of the country's overall financial position.
I think Robertson has done OK. Pretty much a steady as she goes approach - now relaxing the purse strings a bit on infrastructure
A deficit isn't a fiscal hole.
The first is a shortfall in income vs expense over a period. You can plan for it (which may or may not be unwise depending on the circumstances) or it can happen because things change between when you set your budget and the end of the period that you couldn't have foreseen. If you planned it and didn't have a way to make it back up that's financial mismanagement. If you didn't plan it and then didn't react to bring it back under control that's financial mismanagement too.
The second isn't really a defined thing. It is shorthand for a calculation or planning error that renders your plan worthless. In this case Joyce said that there was a deficit in the making that Labour hadn't recognised or built into their planning. At the time nobody in Labour said that they planned for a short term projected deficit. Instead they claimed that it was fake news. They didn't even defend the mismatch in the numbers, they just denied it existed. That's always financial mismanagement as far as I can tell.
What Joyce pointed out - correctly - was that Labour's promises and the expectations they created had not been factored into their spending plans. They therefore represented contingent liabilities that should be accounted for. Not doing so is no different to a CEO telling their workforce that they would all get 10% pay rises but the CFO not factoring it into the next year's budget. Then when they make a loss for the year telling the shareholders that it is just a short term projected deficit. If that's not financial mismanagement I'm interested to hear what you think would be needed to meet your definition.
IMO Labour either planned it and lied about it, or they didn't plan it and are incompetent. Liars or fools, which are they?
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To be honest I don’t think Robertson is an idiot. I think they screwed up their calculations at first But when Joyce called them on it they doubled down on the assumption that they didn’t have a prayer in the election so they’d never have to put the promises into practice. Then when Jacinda won that for them they haven’t really been held to account since. It’s well known that facts can’t survive in the presence of fairy dust and baby pictures.
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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@JC I expect Jacinda to start showing early in the New Year...
Cynical. But probably accurate.
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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@JC I expect Jacinda to start showing early in the New Year...
The only person who is winning is Clarke
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@Rembrandt said in NZ Politics:
Isn't next election Cindy bridal edition?
Does expectant mummy bride raise it a level?
NZ Politics