Coronavirus - Overall
-
@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Yeah. But since when have common flu cases overwhelmed the health system,?
I think we monitor the strains of the Flu virus and vaccinate people at risk.
Everyone over 60 (I think) gets offered a Flu jab every year in the UK
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@No-Quarter That’s exponentiality demonstrated right there. If a single virus was placed in a glass jar at 3pm and that virus doubled every second and the jar was full at 4pm, at what time was it half full? 1 second to 4pm.
Those figures are not surprising.
When was it FIRST full?
From the details provided I’d say 4pm. But the beauty of mathematics is the ability to theorise differently until absolute proof is achieved. Speaking as a non mathematician I will leave it for others to extrapolate from incomplete dat
Tru da
-
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Dr Campbell explains some good news coming from Imperial College.
Basically the preventions are working. It is likely actual cases are grossly under-reported. Italy is likely to have had well over a million infections, maybe in the millions. They currently show a death rate around 13% but this is likely 1% or lower given the number of actual infected.
Probably why countries like Australia, NZ have such low death numbers is the virus did not actually take hold and spread before measures were put in place. So our number of cases reported are much closer to actual cases. Whereas Europe, the US are probably 10x higher or more.
Highly likely then in the short term our health systems are unlikely to become overburdened. The issue now is how do they open up the economy whilst controlling any left over cases.
1% of 1 million is still shit loads
10,000. Compared with an average of 22000 flu or flu type illness related deaths per year on average for the last 3 years in Italy
Yeah. But since when have common flu cases overwhelmed the health system,?
Two days ago UK heath boffin stated that flu sometimes causes a temporary overload of capacity.
If that's the case then it's little wonder they're stressing about a new very contagious virus hitting the market.
-
@Victor-Meldrew same in NZ I believe.
My neighbour said he has his flu jab booked for the 14th...on arrival, calls the Dr and gives them his car rego, they will then come out to him, supposedly in full PPE to give him his jab.
I haven't had the flu jab since I was in the UK, also haven't had the flu since I had the jab either...but if they have a CV jab, I think I'll take that one.
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@No-Quarter That’s exponentiality demonstrated right there. If a single virus was placed in a glass jar at 3pm and that virus doubled every second and the jar was full at 4pm, at what time was it half full? 1 second to 4pm.
Those figures are not surprising.
You and your "mathematics"...
It's gaining traction, soon people won't look at it as a pseudo-science. We're going mainstream brother. Come with us!
Sounds like my kind of cult - does it allow amateurs?
-
Looks like squabbling over the groceries isn't confined to the supermarket
https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-cries-foul-over-berlin-bound-masks-diverted-to-u-s-11585943440
-
Best interview I've seen
-
Conference call with Trump today. Some heavyweights. Amusing to see Vincent Kennedy amongst them!
They haven’t released yet what was discussed, but presumably it’s about re-starting their seasons or trying to get a sense of when they can get back to business.
-
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
-
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
-
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
-
@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
Scary to think that a day of 30k new cases in the US might be well under
-
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
Scary to think that a day of 30k new cases in the US might be well under
It's a big country
-
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
Scary to think that a day of 30k new cases in the US might be well under
Apparently that was yesterday:-
@Machpants Looking at the chart above and comparing the fatality numbers v the confirmed cases, it looks like, all other things being equal, that the US is testing pretty well compared to many other countries. The UK included.
We have a death rate/confirmed cases ratio of a little over 10% whilst the US is a little under 3%. Would indicate wider testing?
-
@voodoo I think the numbers everywhere are likely higher than reported, but it's about if they have it under control or not.
Italy's numbers are supposedly dropping, but they have a very long way to go.
The next 4 days will likely determine if we see a relaxing of lockdown over the next couple of weeks.
I could continue to work from home, my wife has full ppe gear for when she has been working st a retirement village, looked like someone from one if those outbreak movies...I did tell her to do her shop in it, but she won't haha.
I am sure plenty could restart (tradies for example, just up to the project manager to limit the people on site) takeaway shops, many have ability to simply sell through a window or am sure they could work out a way to do it...provided they stick to a set criteria.
-
@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
Scary to think that a day of 30k new cases in the US might be well under
It's a big country
It is, though its the trajectory that is scary, and you wonder where it peaks, got to be > 1m cases, is double that, 3x?
-
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo I think the numbers everywhere are likely higher than reported, but it's about if they have it under control or not.
Italy's numbers are supposedly dropping, but they have a very long way to go.
The next 4 days will likely determine if we see a relaxing of lockdown over the next couple of weeks.
I could continue to work from home, my wife has full ppe gear for when she has been working st a retirement village, looked like someone from one if those outbreak movies...I did tell her to do her shop in it, but she won't haha.
I am sure plenty could restart (tradies for example, just up to the project manager to limit the people on site) takeaway shops, many have ability to simply sell through a window or am sure they could work out a way to do it...provided they stick to a set criteria.
There is a huge problem with all this conjecture. Which is that the flattened curve in Italy only shows what happens with an intense lockdown. Maybe numbers of daily indentified infections will fall. Meanwhile, herd immunity may be rising only very slowly. So a relaxation (how and when?) allows some trade off of higher deaths for increased economic activity. But without any significant increase in herd immunity it's unlikely the relaxations can be that great.
I look closely at Holland, where people who can't work from home can go to work (like UK) but where some interactions remain permitted: https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-the-netherlands .
The results suggest that the benefits of such an approach are no less (and possibly are better) than in UK/Italy/France. This article gives an interesting viewpoint: https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/04/coronavirus-statistics-show-lockdowns-are-slowing-rate-of-infection/ .
Key para: It will take weeks before we can say definitively which country’s strategy has been the best, but one plausible conclusion is that the real difference has come from preventing mass gatherings in confined spaces: football matches, concerts, high streets, railway stations and bars and restaurants.
That may inform a sensible initial relaxation.
The stark reality is that, barring an early vaccine, the question to be answered in Europe is, 'What is the maximum tolerable death rate?'. And, "Can we trust our citizens to respect social distancing?'.
NZ's isolation does allow a slightly different approach.
-
@pakman Italy, Spain, even England to a great degree, their populations did not appear to be overly compliant with social distancing and generally doing what they are told. In contrast, Sweden, and other Scandinavian countries who are good at following instructions, might get away with more relaxed rules