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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Am I missing something or has the Second Wave not happened in countries like Italy, France and Belgium which got hammered early and are now out of Lockdown?
I dont think it would be expected in any of those places yet?
All had strict lockdowns only eased when infections under control. So, while second wave would be expected under 'classic' scenarios we read about, I'd assume it would be slow to build? And maybe get nipped in bud by the distancing and other epidemic knowledge gives have compared to 100 years ago.
Its more the places with premature easing that second wave watch would be centered. Iran and UK.
USA is really still just first wave migrating inland.
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China, the real excess deaths estimates, and from that tracing back real date of outbreak.
Interesting article, but on a not yet peer reviewed study.
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@Rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Am I missing something or has the Second Wave not happened in countries like Italy, France and Belgium which got hammered early and are now out of Lockdown?
I dont think it would be expected in any of those places yet?
All had strict lockdowns only eased when infections under control. So, while second wave would be expected under 'classic' scenarios we read about, I'd assume it would be slow to build? And maybe get nipped in bud by the distancing and other epidemic knowledge gives have compared to 100 years ago.
Its more the places with premature easing that second wave watch would be centered. Iran and UK.
USA is really still just first wave migrating inland.
So what does that mean do you think?
Medical workers I know are expecting a hard second wave in the UK.
We'd have seen something by now, no?
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It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? That's quite something if so.
WTF happened here then?
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? That's quite something if so.
WTF happened here then?
Not sure anyone really knows for sure. But there is an idea that CV doesn't cause more deaths per se, it merely brings deaths forward by some months.
So a rationalisation might be that those who would have otherwise died in June died earlier in the year, and any CV deaths in June are less than the impact.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? According to Worldometers Sweden has the 7th highest per capita death rate in the world. This increases to 5th if you discount anomalies of tiny population sizes. That sounds like excess mortality.
Edit: Just seen your relpy to @MajorRage which puts a bit more colour on things.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? According to Worldometers Sweden has the 7th highest per capita death rate in the world. This increases to 5th if you discount anomalies of tiny population sizes. That sounds like excess mortality.
I didn't refer to the pre June position, rather that the June stats do not show excess deaths.
On the pre June figures I don't think there's much utility in comparing Sweden to any countries other than Western European ones, given the geographically unique factors.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? That's quite something if so.
WTF happened here then?
Not sure anyone really knows for sure. But there is an idea that CV doesn't cause more deaths per se, it merely brings deaths forward by some months.
So a rationalisation might be that those who would have otherwise died in June died earlier in the year, and any CV deaths in June are less than the impact.
That doesn't quite track. There will need to be less deaths in the coming months than normal for the Covid deaths in Mar-May not to be excess. There's been one week of June data showing just a little bit under the average, it's still too early to tell the deaths were 'early' or not.
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@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? That's quite something if so.
WTF happened here then?
Not sure anyone really knows for sure. But there is an idea that CV doesn't cause more deaths per se, it merely brings deaths forward by some months.
So a rationalisation might be that those who would have otherwise died in June died earlier in the year, and any CV deaths in June are less than the impact.
That doesn't quite track. There will need to be less deaths in the coming months than normal for the Covid deaths in Mar-May not to be excess. There's been one week of June data showing just a little bit under the average, it's still too early to tell the deaths were 'early' or not.
Not sure that logic holds. The people most effected were in their 80s/90s, some in end of life care so quite likely would have died some time during this year regardless of the pandemic.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? That's quite something if so.
WTF happened here then?
Not sure anyone really knows for sure. But there is an idea that CV doesn't cause more deaths per se, it merely brings deaths forward by some months.
So a rationalisation might be that those who would have otherwise died in June died earlier in the year, and any CV deaths in June are less than the impact.
That doesn't quite track. There will need to be less deaths in the coming months than normal for the Covid deaths in Mar-May not to be excess. There's been one week of June data showing just a little bit under the average, it's still too early to tell the deaths were 'early' or not.
Not sure that logic holds. The people most effected were in their 80s/90s, some in end of life care so quite likely would have died some time during this year regardless of the pandemic.
That may be the case, but we don't know that until the end of year totals come in - which was why I was responding to @pakman's post about the June totals.
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@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? That's quite something if so.
WTF happened here then?
Not sure anyone really knows for sure. But there is an idea that CV doesn't cause more deaths per se, it merely brings deaths forward by some months.
So a rationalisation might be that those who would have otherwise died in June died earlier in the year, and any CV deaths in June are less than the impact.
That doesn't quite track. There will need to be less deaths in the coming months than normal for the Covid deaths in Mar-May not to be excess. There's been one week of June data showing just a little bit under the average, it's still too early to tell the deaths were 'early' or not.
Not sure that logic holds. The people most effected were in their 80s/90s, some in end of life care so quite likely would have died some time during this year regardless of the pandemic.
That may be the case, but we don't know that until the end of year totals come in - which was why I was responding to @pakman's post about the June totals.
It's not certain, obviously, but a pretty educated guess for people that are 90!
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? That's quite something if so.
WTF happened here then?
Not sure anyone really knows for sure. But there is an idea that CV doesn't cause more deaths per se, it merely brings deaths forward by some months.
So a rationalisation might be that those who would have otherwise died in June died earlier in the year, and any CV deaths in June are less than the impact.
That doesn't quite track. There will need to be less deaths in the coming months than normal for the Covid deaths in Mar-May not to be excess. There's been one week of June data showing just a little bit under the average, it's still too early to tell the deaths were 'early' or not.
Not sure that logic holds. The people most effected were in their 80s/90s, some in end of life care so quite likely would have died some time during this year regardless of the pandemic.
That may be the case, but we don't know that until the end of year totals come in - which was why I was responding to @pakman's post about the June totals.
It's not certain, obviously, but a pretty educated guess for people that are 90!
Yeah, but not so much the 1500 deaths of people aged between 30-70.
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@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? That's quite something if so.
WTF happened here then?
Not sure anyone really knows for sure. But there is an idea that CV doesn't cause more deaths per se, it merely brings deaths forward by some months.
So a rationalisation might be that those who would have otherwise died in June died earlier in the year, and any CV deaths in June are less than the impact.
That doesn't quite track. There will need to be less deaths in the coming months than normal for the Covid deaths in Mar-May not to be excess. There's been one week of June data showing just a little bit under the average, it's still too early to tell the deaths were 'early' or not.
Not sure that logic holds. The people most effected were in their 80s/90s, some in end of life care so quite likely would have died some time during this year regardless of the pandemic.
That may be the case, but we don't know that until the end of year totals come in - which was why I was responding to @pakman's post about the June totals.
It's not certain, obviously, but a pretty educated guess for people that are 90!
Yeah, but not so much the 1500 deaths of people aged between 30-70.
Covid totals jump up when I wasn't paying attention?
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's funny how people are now turning on Sweden a bit, at least in this part of the world. But the reality is that all of Western Europe has been smashed fairly equally. Britain, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland. It's all pretty ugly.
Given it's been a global pandemic, Sweden hasn't been bad. And no worse than the travel hub European countries who did lockdown.
AND chances of a second wave MUCH lower in Sweden.
Sweden looks reasonably ugly at the moment, but we won't know for 6-12 months how this plays out.
Not sure what you're referring to, but as of last week Sweden had NO excess mortality.
In other words, people were dying no faster than the five year average. So hard to see the problem, at least going forward?
Really? That's quite something if so.
WTF happened here then?
Not sure anyone really knows for sure. But there is an idea that CV doesn't cause more deaths per se, it merely brings deaths forward by some months.
So a rationalisation might be that those who would have otherwise died in June died earlier in the year, and any CV deaths in June are less than the impact.
That doesn't quite track. There will need to be less deaths in the coming months than normal for the Covid deaths in Mar-May not to be excess. There's been one week of June data showing just a little bit under the average, it's still too early to tell the deaths were 'early' or not.
Not sure that logic holds. The people most effected were in their 80s/90s, some in end of life care so quite likely would have died some time during this year regardless of the pandemic.
That may be the case, but we don't know that until the end of year totals come in - which was why I was responding to @pakman's post about the June totals.
It's not certain, obviously, but a pretty educated guess for people that are 90!
Yeah, but not so much the 1500 deaths of people aged between 30-70.
Covid totals jump up when I wasn't paying attention?
The discussion has been about Sweden, they have nearly 5000 deaths.
Coronavirus - Overall