Coronavirus - New Zealand
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It looks like that the most current info for NZ says 22 deaths.
According to a report on the news last night, in the UK 12 people extra are dying per day due to increased alcohol consumption brought on by the Covid 'Stay At Home' message.
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It looks like that the most current info for NZ says 22 deaths.
According to a report on the news last night, in the UK 12 people extra are dying per day due to increased alcohol consumption brought on by the Covid 'Stay At Home' message.
I wondered what I was getting up to in my drunken weekends. Sorry 12x12 people.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Have you guys considered the possibility that the fact that you don't understand why the MoH has advised an extension of 4 days, may have more to do with poor reporting by the media and not so much with there not being good reasons? Or with the fact that only the main point of the MoH advice is communicated but not the details underlying it?
If they need a few more days of contact tracing to get a reasonable level of certainty that they've found all the contacts related to this cluster that they need to find and that no infections related to this cluster will pop up at unexpected places, then there's likely an operational need for that. What's so hard to understand about that?
If all that is actually the case, is it going to be necessary to do the same thing next time there is a case? 2+ more weeks of L3 for the affected region and L2 for all unaffected regions? If not, why not, what's different?
This post press con commentary sounds a bit like someone trying to rationalise the rules of Dungeons and Dragons!
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@Godder Cindy was interviewed on RNZ this morning and said exactly this. They cannot stop every Aucklander at the border departure lounge and ask them where they are going and what they are doing.
Cindy was asked the question so many Ferners want asked
What's the strategy for the next two years? [Given that's how long WHO think it will take to control C19]
Will we keep on dropping up and down alert levels every time we get a new case?Warning those of a delicate persuasion might want to cease reading now to avoid a total melt down
The strategy remains the same as always - STAMP IT OUT
Eliminate doesn't mean no cases but preventing it building and making sure any new cluster dies out. This has been successfully done twice now and we are(paraphrasing) the bestest ever - envy of the world - fucking A
It doesn't mean we go into lockdown for every case. The Rydges Hotel maintenance worker case - if it had occurred on its own. We could have stayed at L1 because we were able to trace it link it genomically and be confident it was an isolated one offSo yes if we get more holes at the order and a repeat of this Akl cluster the strategy is we will go in and out of lockdown for the next two years... Of course that is incredibly unlikely because we are so fantastic and constantly improving and
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@dogmeat beats saying "we've given up and will be letting it in". Something positive is that the contact tracing and testing rates were actually pretty good once a case was found. Knowing that the system is capable of it now should make it easier to avoid levelling up in future. False negatives still mean occasional cases will get through the border though.
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Government policy informed by best minds: In and out of lockdown until there's a vaccine.
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@antipodean TBF, I think that has seemed thier strategy all along, what people would like is what the long term strategy looks like if thier isnt one, which is a possibility.
I mean there is supposedly a dude in HK who has contracted it again now, so does thatmean herd immunity isnt a thing, although they did say it was a different strain...surely, the virus needs to adapt itself to be less agressive, given if it kills its host it dies too?
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@taniwharugby In the old days I suppose the flu virus came along and after a few go rounds people developed a degree of immunity that allowed them to survive the infection. These days we get the flu and for most of us its no big deal. Of course that was after 5% of the population died....
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When I watched the Covid 1pm updated the other day it seemed just as the media were asking some good questions and the PM and AB were under pressure, some journalist would change the subject and let them off. It's been frustrating as I feel we would be in a better position today if these daily updates were used to probe for weakness in our Covid response (and some have been), rather than daily updates of figures and a few pats on the back.
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@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Have you guys considered the possibility that the fact that you don't understand why the MoH has advised an extension of 4 days, may have more to do with poor reporting by the media and not so much with there not being good reasons? Or with the fact that only the main point of the MoH advice is communicated but not the details underlying it?
If they need a few more days of contact tracing to get a reasonable level of certainty that they've found all the contacts related to this cluster that they need to find and that no infections related to this cluster will pop up at unexpected places, then there's likely an operational need for that. What's so hard to understand about that?
LOL this made me laugh, talk about defending Jacinda to the hilt. What does the media have to do with this? She had a press conference all to herself, which could go for as long as she wanted, to lay out the reasons for extending the lockdown. Instead she made some vague comments about getting better prepared. All while businesses die. And I'm not talking about big business here; Amazon, Facebook, Foodstuffs etc etc are all absolutely killing it during Covid. Bezos is worth a gazillion dollars now. I'm talking about small and medium businesses, the ones everyday NZers have absolutely slogged their guts out to build from the ground up, watching them go up in flames as politicians with no skin in the game extend lockdowns and tell them they can't open for business due to a virus that has a 99% survival rate.
It's nonsense and people have had enough. The cure is worse than the virus, by some stretch now, and a lot of people are in for a world of hurt over the next two years if we keep locking down every time we get a sniff of the thing.
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@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Have you guys considered the possibility that the fact that you don't understand why the MoH has advised an extension of 4 days, may have more to do with poor reporting by the media and not so much with there not being good reasons? Or with the fact that only the main point of the MoH advice is communicated but not the details underlying it?
If they need a few more days of contact tracing to get a reasonable level of certainty that they've found all the contacts related to this cluster that they need to find and that no infections related to this cluster will pop up at unexpected places, then there's likely an operational need for that. What's so hard to understand about that?
LOL this made me laugh, talk about defending Jacinda to the hilt. What does the media have to do with this? She had a press conference all to herself, which could go for as long as she wanted, to lay out the reasons for extending the lockdown. Instead she made some vague comments about getting better prepared. All while businesses die. And I'm not talking about big business here; Amazon, Facebook, Foodstuffs etc etc are all absolutely killing it during Covid. Bezos is worth a gazillion dollars now. I'm talking about small and medium businesses, the ones everyday NZers have absolutely slogged their guts out to build from the ground up, watching them go up in flames as politicians with no skin in the game extend lockdowns and tell them they can't open for business due to a virus that has a 99% survival rate.
It's nonsense and people have had enough. The cure is worse than the virus, by some stretch now, and a lot of people are in for a world of hurt over the next two years if we keep locking down every time we get a sniff of the thing.
So accurate.
If corona virus doesn't kill someone elderly or with underlying health concerns something else will.
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@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
that, right there is a giant straw man.
The complaints here aren't anti-science. At all. The Fern in general, now, is very pro-science.
Science, and public policy, are two very very different things.
The Government can be 100% on the side of science, but that doesn't make them right
Govt: We want to eliminate the virus in NZ, how do we do that
Science: Close the borders, lock the population down. Hard use of quarantine
Govt: Ok sweet we'll do thatThat would be the scientific way of dong it.
Most people's issue is, okay what comes next? How do we move forward? How long can we sustain the current method?
None of those questions are being answered by the political or the scientific community. Basically because, neither one knows.
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@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
So one scientist of exceptional ability (in say a thousand or more) does a brilliant job or makes an amazing discovery. Then we should bow down and worship them all. Without exception. And what to do if these 'experts' disagree.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
The Government can be 100% on the side of science, but that doesn't make them right
Govt: We want to eliminate the virus in NZ, how do we do that
Science: Close the borders, lock the population down. Hard use of quarantine
Govt: Ok sweet we'll do thatBut Sweden for example tried a different approach. Based on their experts.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
that, right there is a giant straw man.
The complaints here aren't anti-science. At all. The Fern in general, now, is very pro-science.
I didn't post the article in response to any comments on the Fern. If I had, I would have used the "reply" or "quote" function as I do now. I posted the link, because I think it's an interesting article.
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@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
that, right there is a giant straw man.
The complaints here aren't anti-science. At all. The Fern in general, now, is very pro-science.
I didn't post the article in response to any comments on the Fern. If I had, I would have used the "reply" or "quote" function as I do now. I posted the link, because I think it's an interesting article.
this is a discussion board. try discussing.
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Re "The cure is worse than the virus" that is a very popular assertion on her and trending in the broader population too although still a minority perspective.
However it is far from proven. Nowhere that has adopted a more laissez faire approach than NZ is faring any better. Winger name drops Sweden at every possible opportunity despite the evidence damning his argument but the simple facts (damn facts) is it is way too early to make a call on which is the right approach economically.
We can easily see what doesn't work. Do SFA and pretend there's nothing wrong has failed everywhere. There is the very real possibility that the Go Hard - Go Early approach will turn out to be the right one.
Or it may be that it is proved too draconian, but notwithstanding the current lockdowns (genuine question) where is fairing better economically?
Better is relative. There are a lot of people doing it tough and it's only going to get worse, but travels fucked everywhere. Tourism is goneburger globally. The simple truth is, as Sweden found out, the global economy is so interconnected, there is no way you can say we are not going into lockdown. Effectively your economy shuts down anyway.
I'm fucked off with Labour because they dicked around during the two months of L1 and wasted an opportunity. I am totally over the whole pandemic thing and wish I was sitting sipping a cold beer in Colombo right now as was the plan, but saying we should just let it run its course in NZ is totally impracticable. I also resent people who are selfish and not doing the right thing because they are simply prolonging the agony fore all of us, but I blame the govt for a lot of that as well by encouraging false optimism - followed by despondency - with al the Cindyspeak.
It's a fucking hard one. I can I guess accept prolonged L1. I also expect (always did) further cases but FFS I hope the govt are going to display a greater level of competency next time round.
What I would like to see is L1 robust controls of border and everyone who touches it resident and traveller so that the odd case is immediately contained and we don't have to move out of L1. Do that and I'll happily scan QR codes all day while wearing my mask. I'd wear it all day - in bars and restaurants - everywhere but at home to get as close to normality as possible for as long as possible.
I want great processes and controls not just great soundbites and caring looks.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Re "The cure is worse than the virus" that is a very popular assertion on her and trending in the broader population too although still a minority perspective.
However it is far from proven. Nowhere that has adopted a more laissez faire approach than NZ is faring any better.
While definitely not proven. What do they say about economics as a science ....
There was ASB research - as per this article on interest.co.nz back when we moved back out of level 1. Not sure if it was linked on here.In terms of educated guesses at economics at the different levels.
I looked at this, trying to work out how mnay days of covid free we need to make it worthwhile. Probably 4 months is my estimate at it being cost neutral.
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@dogmeat I don't disagree with that but would add that I find it surprising that many 'commentators' with a propensity to tell the govt to stop interfering with their lives are the very ones saying 'but the Govt didn't tell us what to do properly'.
If you want personal responsibility then for god's sake take it. You don't need Cindy to tell you when to wash your hands or wear a mask in a crowd or be more careful if any signs of a cold etc.
I too fell into complacency in L1. That's on me. I should have seen this coming as well and made sure I was more prepared. I'm happy to berate the govt for incompetence but not for not telling me to do what I should have realised myself.