-
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
They won't get everything right but as pointed out above they need to be getting a hell of a lot wrong this time for Trump to win.
Too much is made (from media soundbites) about the 'popularity margin' as well. That's what surprised everyone last time because Hillary was ahed in the popularity stakes. That turned out true on the day as well, just the electoral college breakdown didn't go her way.
I might try and find some comparitive state by state polls from the same period and see how they went.
-
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that) -
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)That guy's theories were coincidentally correct rather than scientific IIRC.
I'm interested in following the tracking of the polls this time just to see what actually happens.
I have found some 2016 data. It isn't as stable as the FT rolling RealClear one I have been using but yes, if you look at 2016 Trump took the toss up (within margin of error) states but also took a key one that was polling over 5% for Clinton. That was the clincher.
Same number of toss up votes available going into election and similar margins.
So he will be banking on the 'silent supporter' theory on those plus at least one stolen from looking Biden 'safe'.HIstory has shown that it is possible.
One other aspect this time around though is that the 'popularity' poll difference is much bigger. More than double the advantage for Biden than it was for Hillary. That should translate into some effect and make it more difficult to take these states.
-
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)There was another guy, a history professor i think, that I posted ages ago who has predicted every president since Reagan and he says Biden will win. So someone is going to be wrong
-
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
-
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
-
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
I would usually laugh that comment off as paranoia. But the US is so crazy right now, people will disown you if they found out that you weren't voting the same as them
-
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
I would usually laugh that comment off as paranoia. But the US is so crazy right now, people will disown you if they found out that you weren't voting the same as them
Yes, it's mad.
-
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
....and polling companies are releasing personal details of those that indicate a Rep vote? Don't think so. Lots of the polls are impersonal now as well.
I get that face to face some people could be shy, but in a poll?What we saw last election was everything bar one State running close to the polls (within margin of error). The margin accounts for these people.
A late switch in one state based on stupidity by Clinton being taken advantage of by Trump.The general media narrative was that Clinton had it in the bag but the polls didn't really paint that picture at all when you look back at them.
-
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
....and polling companies are releasing personal details of those that indicate a Rep vote? Don't think so. Lots of the polls are impersonal now as well.
I get that face to face some people could be shy, but in a poll?What we saw last election was everything bar one State running close to the polls (within margin of error). The margin accounts for these people.
A late switch in one state based on stupidity by Clinton being taken advantage of by Trump.The general media narrative was that Clinton had it in the bag but the polls didn't really paint that picture at all when you look back at them.
i think i must have fallen for that, my relocation was Clinton was comfortably out in front
-
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
....and polling companies are releasing personal details of those that indicate a Rep vote? Don't think so. Lots of the polls are impersonal now as well.
I get that face to face some people could be shy, but in a poll?What we saw last election was everything bar one State running close to the polls (within margin of error). The margin accounts for these people.
A late switch in one state based on stupidity by Clinton being taken advantage of by Trump.The general media narrative was that Clinton had it in the bag but the polls didn't really paint that picture at all when you look back at them.
i think i must have fallen for that, my relocation was Clinton was comfortably out in front
I think that was based on Trump being thought of as a bit of a joke and Hillary being in front in the head to head in the margins that Dem v Rep usually show. Easy conclusion was that the 'politician' would beat the reality TV guy. And that was the message put out.
As I said, if you look back the polls weren't far off. They just missed the big late swing in one state. The other toss ups swung toward Trump as well, just not by as much and within the polling margins of error. -
@Frank said in US Politics:
Rudy Giuliani has just done an interview.
Underage girls.
Multiple photos corroborating it.The text being read was sent to Joe.
Laptop from hell.And? Embarrassing for Hunter, and if there is illegality then he deserves to cop it.
As the journo says, 'family trouble'. Still no evidence of wrongdoing by Jo.
You are lapping up the muck-raking. -
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial
I am just glad a guy like this wasn't travelling the globe soliciting money from various corporations in Ukraine and China for the "Big Guy".That's Rudi's interpretation and you are lapping it up.
Do you not even apply a filter or question his motives? Have doubts about the veracity of the 'evidence'?
'Soliciting money'? It's called getting paid.
Owes money to dad for bailing him out (probably in more ways than one)I'm actually finding this a little funny in that Rudi is spruiking his 'evidence' around tabloid papers and the little media guys and comes across like a silly old man shouting 'Look!, Look!' with no one taking much notice.
-
@Crucial
Oh I know Rudy is partisan as hell.
And the whole thing is so hokey.
And of course they are juicing it for max damage to Biden.Just think this info' should be out.
It is real.
It is not Russian disinfo' as claimed.
The public should be able to see for themselves and make up their own minds. -
@Paekakboyz
A lot of edits - ha ha
No, it is not proven.Bit of a tell that the Biden campaign aren't denying it though.
Don't you think?Conflicting accounts.
US Politics