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@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble No! Nothing wrong with it.
However, the scale of it is SO large, I think it deserves deeper investigation.
Have any gone form a big lead for trump to a big win for Biden? Havent they all just got close with slight leads here and there?
If anything I though Biden looked comfortable in Ohio early but that swung back
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AP do projections based on analysis and reports from officials, and everyone trusts them.
Can they accurately predict total voter numbers ahead of time?
Do they list percentage won of that total voter number or are they using what has been counted?Because I'm looking at the AP data fed via Google, and they're using all their percentages against counted votes only.
So at any point where a candidate had a 10% lead (counted) in a state with 64% counted, the second place would "only" need 59% of the remaining vote to overtake them on a simple (1 vote) majority.
Hardly a stretch. At other counted totals:
50% counted - second place only needs 55%
60% counted - 57.5%
70% counted - 61.7%
80% counted - 70%
85% counted - 78.34%Now if Biden is pulling 80% of mail ballots in some counties (as reported above) then he could effectively be losing by 10% split on counted votes and still come back.
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble No! Nothing wrong with it.
However, the scale of it is SO large, I think it deserves deeper investigation.
Have any gone form a big lead for trump to a big win for Biden? Havent they all just got close with slight leads here and there?
If anything I though Biden looked comfortable in Ohio early but that swung back
The other question is around whether all states are using the same procedure to report polling stations and mail ballots - I believe they're all a little quirky in how their electoral commissions run things.
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There is plenty of room for mischief to have occurred in the postal votes.
Lots of stuff on internet out there, probably fake news.
But not beyond wit of man to assume that democrats may have taken a few short cuts here and there.
This may not be over until UK comes out of lockdown!
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@NTA said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble No! Nothing wrong with it.
However, the scale of it is SO large, I think it deserves deeper investigation.
Have any gone form a big lead for trump to a big win for Biden? Havent they all just got close with slight leads here and there?
If anything I though Biden looked comfortable in Ohio early but that swung back
The other question is around whether all states are using the same procedure to report polling stations and mail ballots - I believe they're all a little quirky in how their electoral commissions run things.
They all do things differently don't they? State loyalties come first so standardisation is basically impossible
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@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@barbarian said in US Politics:
@MajorRage But if they counted the postal votes first, the reverse would be true: Biden would have a lead of 7-800k and then Trump would work that down. It's what happened in Florida (on a slightly smaller scale) but nobody is questioning that...
Rubbish. I'm questioning everything. I'm not closing my mind to there being no substance is Trump's claims.
Trump lead by 10% with 64% of the vote counted. So he was 37/27 up, which means a 57% pro Trump. For Biden to get this back, he needs to be at least 23/13 of the other 36% ... that's 64%, or a change of over 20% in voting patterns.
That's unfathomable.
Nothing is impossible in this pandemic year. Search your mind. The obvious answer is probably the right answer
To requote myself above, the most obvious answer is the one the MSM have been pushing, the one that everybody said would happen, right?
I'm not suspicious that postal votes are more in favour of Biden, not at all. I'm extremely suspicious of the sheer scale of this. It's absolutely insane, and is undoubtedly worthy of deeper dive.
American experts have been writing very recently about the growing no accelerating political gap between city and country so no, it is not that weird to understand.
I assume you have travelled through both the coasts and the rust belt and midwest?
Not the same thing at all. -
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
Can you imagine if the republicans dropped him next time and he ran as an independent
have you noticed some are already splintering?
And fox news really infuriated the Trump camp.
Watch the Murdoch rats jump platforms if they sniff impending collapse.. -
@nostrildamus don jr not helping that, made a couple of jabs about how the trump team have done all this them selves etc
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@pakman said in US Politics:
There is plenty of room for mischief to have occurred in the postal votes.
Lots of stuff on internet out there, probably fake news.
But not beyond wit of man to assume that democrats may have taken a few short cuts here and there.
This may not be over until UK comes out of lockdown!
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@nostrildamus don jr not helping that, made a couple of jabs about how the trump team have done all this them selves etc
I suspect in Republican HQ they see the Trump children as liabilities but perhaps we will never know..
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@nostrildamus said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
Can you imagine if the republicans dropped him next time and he ran as an independent
have you noticed some are already splintering?
And fox news really infuriated the Trump camp.
Watch the Murdoch rats jump platforms if they sniff impending collapse..I watched that series on Rupert Murdoch here in oz recently and he apparently wasn't a Trump fan to begin with, but moved over after a bit of time realising Trump was going to beat out every other GOP candidate
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It is quite amazing to me that so many think the Democrats are inherently crooked when Trump associates are considered:
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@nostrildamus however, Yang makes a good point here:
The progressive political parties in Australia are suffering a similar crisis; what makes them any different from the other lot?
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@nostrildamus said in US Politics:
@pakman said in US Politics:
There is plenty of room for mischief to have occurred in the postal votes.
Lots of stuff on internet out there, probably fake news.
But not beyond wit of man to assume that democrats may have taken a few short cuts here and there.
This may not be over until UK comes out of lockdown!
Takes one to know one?
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The sending out ballots to everyone was never a great idea. But not allowing observers to do their thing makes a not ideal situation worse
Newt Gingrich Calls on Attorney General Bill Barr to Arrest Poll Workers – Jaweb “Let’s see. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all of them, a lot of them mention partisan observers are permitted to be present when ballots are counted,” Hannity stated. “But we get report after report that they are not being allowed to observe. Is that a violation of law? And how do you remedy that?” “My hope is that President Trump will lead the millions of Americans who understand exactly what’s going on,” Gingrich fumed. “The Philadelphia machine is corrupt. The Atlanta machine is corrupt. The machine in Detroit is corrupt. And they are trying to steal the presidency. And we should not allow them to do that.” “First of all, under federal law, we should lock up the people who are breaking the law,” he continued. “You stop somebody from being an observer, you just broke federal law. Do you hide and put up papers so nobody can see what you’re doing? You just broke federal law. You bring in ballots that aren’t real? You just broke federal law.”
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@pakman over half a dozen posts about democrats being encouraged to vote by mail - tied into Trump's constant messaging to avoid mail in voting and do it in person. Combined with the record turnout and here we are. Pending whatever investigations and checks and balances are upcoming.
@Winger I wonder if any of those observers refused to wear masks. Given a lot of this is being live streamed hopefully there is some clarity about these allegations soon.
US Politics